Here's How Many Bernie Sanders Supporters Ultimately Voted For Trump

[kentuck]

From NPR: (August 2017)

<snip>

Fully 12 percent of people who voted for Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., in the 2016 Democratic presidential primaries voted for President Trump in the general election. That is according to the data from the Cooperative Congressional Election Study — a massive election survey of around 50,000 people. (For perspective, a run-of-the-mill survey measuring Trump's job approval right now has a sample of 800 to 1,500.)

<snip>
To answer the question that many Clinton supporters may be asking: By this data, yes — there are enough of those Sanders-Trump voters who could have potentially swung the election toward Clinton and away from Trump.
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Specifically, if the Sanders-Trump voters in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania had voted for Clinton, or even stayed home on Election Day, those states would have swung to Clinton, and she would have won 46 more electoral votes, putting her at 278 — enough to win, in other words.

But then, it's not as simple as that. First off, this counterfactual world in which these voters didn't vote for Trump rests on a few ifs. If the Sanders-Trump voters in these three states had defected and if nothing else had happened to somehow take electoral votes from Clinton elsewhere and if this survey is correct ... then yes, Clinton would have won. (Some would also argue that if Clinton had campaigned more in the so-called "blue wall" states, she also could have picked up more votes.)

https://www.npr.org/2017/08/24/545812242/1-in-10-sanders-primary-voters-ended-up-supporting-trump-survey-finds

[kimbutgar]

1. I never thought Sanders was vocal enough in his backing of Hillary Clinton

[lunamagica]

2. His "support" was lukewarm at best

[sop]

7. Sanders went too far during the primaries, poisoning the electoral well and fomenting anger

against the DNC and Clinton. Many of his supporters had been so radicalized by the time the general election rolled around, they believed the entire "Democratic establishment" (whatever that is) was worse than Trump, and their guy had been robbed. These Bernie folks couldn't be talked down, so they burned the whole thing down, just as they had threatened.

[Blue_true]

21. He is trying the same thing again. Using some of the very same language.

I seriously don't think it will work out this time like it did in 2016.

One thing that really burns me is that as we have migrants in concentration camps at our border living and some dying in deplorable conditions, people like Susan Sarandon and Cornell West are mute.

[Gothmog]

10. I agree

[trueblue2007]

17. he was not helpful. i think he was sooooooooooooooooo jealous of Hillary.

[triron]

27. Yes he was disappointing. I will never forgive that.

[TheCowsCameHome]

3. *Groan*

Let's keep fighting those old battles -a sure way to lose again.

[wasupaloopa]

12. Wrong we learn from mistakes

[TheCowsCameHome]

22. if only we did......

[brush]

4. Shameful. They helped put in the worse president ever. And it was easy to see he would be a disaster

[Thekaspervote]

6. Yes! And at the end of 4 yrs we'd be looking at another gopeeee prez for probably the next 8

[delisen]

5. So trade was not the issue, but Obama disapproval was

and the analysis leaves out Russia....

[hlthe2b]

8. 12% is outrageous, though, even if less than anticipated. What is wrong with these voters?

[progressoid]

26. that this level of "defection" isn't all that out of the ordinary.

From the article...

A more important caveat, perhaps, is that other statistics suggest that this level of "defection" isn't all that out of the ordinary. Believing that all those Sanders voters somehow should have been expected to not vote for Trump may be to misunderstand how primary voters behave.

For example, Schaffner tells NPR that around 12 percent of Republican primary voters (including 34 percent of Ohio Gov. John Kasich voters and 11 percent of Florida Sen. Marco Rubio voters) ended up voting for Clinton. And according to one 2008 study, around 25 percent of Clinton primary voters in that election ended up voting for Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., in the general. (In addition, the data showed 13 percent of McCain primary voters ended up voting for Obama, and 9 percent of Obama voters ended up voting for McCain — perhaps signaling something that swayed voters between primaries and the general election, or some amount of error in the data, or both.)

[Bradical79]

30. This is normal. They're still shitheels, but it's normal.

I think it was shown that a quarter of Clinton primary supporters voted for McCain over Obama in '08.

[Kaleva]

9. Percentages look about the same as they did in 2008

"While 85% of Obama voters said they would have voted for Clinton had she been the Democratic candidate, 13% would not have supported her including 6% who said they would have backed McCain and 7% who said they would not have voted."

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/who-were-those-clinton-mccain-crossover-voters/

[NBachers]

11. Along with booing John Lewis and Hillary Clinton at the convention.

[mcar]

13. If you follow Twitter,

You see many of the same types threatening the same thing.

Remember, "you better be nice to us or we may not vote for your nominee?"

They were never Democrats.

[Turin_C3PO]

18. My thinking is that their number is fewer this cycle.

I hope so, anyway.

[stopdiggin]

14. who are these people?

Note, they didn't just stay home. Actually voted for TRUMP. This twists my mind all up in knots. I must seriously misunderstand the Bernie Sanders supporter demographic.

[CentralMass]

16. See post 15 and the article linked in it.

[CentralMass]

15. A few comments. Relative to previous primaries that percentage is low.

In 2008 it is estimated that 24% of Hillary primary voters voted for John McCain.

Another factor in Michigan and Wisconsin is that they have open presidential primaries.

Lastly the conclusion by researcher's was that these Sanders tRump voters were not likely Democrats

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2017/08/24/did-enough-bernie-sanders-supporters-vote-for-trump-to-cost-clinton-the-election/

"What kinds of Sanders voters supported Trump?

Perhaps the most important feature of Sanders-Trump voters is this: They weren’t really Democrats to begin with.


Of course, we know that many Sanders voters did not readily identify with the Democratic Party as of 2016, and Schaffner found that Sanders-Trump voters were even less likely to identify as Democrats. Sanders-Trump voters didn’t much approve of Obama either.

In fact, this was true well before 2016. In the VOTER Survey, we know how Sanders-Trump voters voted in 2012, based on an earlier interview in November 2012. Only 35 percent of them reported voting for Obama, compared with 95 percent of Sanders-Clinton voters. In other words, Sanders-Trump voters were predisposed to support Republicans in presidential general elections well before Trump’s candidacy."

[NewJeffCT]

19. In 2008

Rush had his Operation Chaos going - encouraging his Rushbots to vote for Obama in open primaries because he was perceived as weaker in the general election than Clinton. Plus, it would keep the primaries going for longer than they should have gone.

I assume that some of that was in play in 2016 as well - Republicans voting for Sanders to hurt Clinton

[stopdiggin]

20. thanks, informative

Thanks. That was informative. I think I'll always have a little trouble with a someone that leans conservative having any common ground with a democratic socialist, but .. The "open primary" thing might cover a lot of this territory.

[SMC22307]

23. "They weren't really Democrats to begin with."

Thanks for posting that info.

[CentralMass]

35. Yes. The WAPO article cited two surveys. One placed the percentage

of Sander voters who voted for tRump at 6% the other at 12% the group with the 12% value was the same group that did the 2008 analysis that determined that 24% of Hillary voters voted for McCain

So either 94% or 88% of Sanders voters in 2016 voted for Hillary vs 76% of Hillary voters who voted for Senator Obama in 2008. So I make the case that the 2016 Sanders voters were demonstrably more loyal to the party then were the Hillary voters of 2008.

[SMC22307]

41. That has been pointed out numerous times on this site...

but it tends to be ignored.

[Duppers]

39. Thank you!

[pnwmom]

24. Some of that "support" may have been Rethugs messing around in the D primary,

especially after DT had enough electoral votes to win.

[GulfCoast66]

25. I don't put anything past the pale for people who boo John Lewis...

Perhaps the greatest living American. Who almost died fighting peacefully for civil rights. On national tv at the Democratic Convention.

Seriously, who can be surprised.

Somethings will not be forgiven.

[Lordquinton]

28. Speaking of nothingburgers

This is a low statistic for crossover votes, so Sanders supporters actually helped Clinton at an above average rate.

[ProudLib72]

29. These people wanted to stir things up

They got what they voted for.

Well past time to leave Bernie by the wayside.

[Bradical79]

31. Sanders voters were more loyal to the Democrats than previously

This is a hit piece post showing an out of context stat. Usually it's a larger percentage crossing party lines with their vote. It actually reflects well on Sanders and his supporters that the number isn't higher.

[JI7]

32. they went to the democratic convention and booed our nominee and other democrats

and voted for the troll jill stein.

[Bradical79]

33. That's pretty good

Less crossing the line by the primary's loser than expected. Was 25% of Clinton voters crossing lines in 2008, 34% of Kasich primary voters going for Clinton in '16 for example.

Here's a good article talking about the Sanders-Trump voters:

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/8/24/16194086/bernie-trump-voters-study

[MuseRider]

34. Once again we need to be reminded

that many of those people were Republicans who hated Trump but would never in this life or their next vote for a Clinton. I had at least 20 friends in Michigan who are R's. They hated Trump, liked Bernie and hated Hillary with the heat of 10 suns. They all voted for Trump but would have voted for Bernie.

Please remember your blanket statements about Bernie Bro's are not correct if you do not mention these other voters. I know, it is so much nicer to continue to live in the warm glow of the Clinton embrace and blame everyone else (Bernie). I also know Dems who voted for Trump because they would never vote for Hillary or another Clinton. Granted, they are not reliable Dem's but registered as Democrats they are.

Fire away, I have no answers to the crap that usually comes next.

[JudyM]

38. Right there with you. Some people are willfully misinformed and continue beating their toy drum.

[kentuck]

40. They hated Trump but they voted for him...

...because they hated Hillary with the heat of 10 suns?

I'm sure there were many of those.

We do have to look very closely at statistics and polls. They can be wrong.

[kentuck]

36. Bernie received just over 13 million votes in the primaries.

About 1.5 million of those voted for Trump or someone else in the general election.

What does it mean?

Is it important?

My hunch is that if they voted for Trump, they will not go back to Bernie this time around. They will stick with the cult.

However, we should look at the big picture. Did Bernie get out a lot of new voters for the Democratic Party?

It is easy to misinterpret statistics.

[Gothmog]

37. Arggh