Could be worth Obama making a play for Arizona? GOP is split down the middle.

[Ian62]

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/245631-gop-leaders-fret-about-state-party-structures
VERY interesting stuff about the splits in the Arizona GOP.

Medicare cuts etc. should play well in Arizona - like Florida.
If Romney is not going to get much support from the local State party, he might be made to feel very uncomfortable. Obama might even take it.

At the very least it would be a useful avenue to drain some Romney cash.
Obama pokes his nose in and Romney might be forced to spend say 5 times as much to defend it.
Romney about 10 pts up at the moment.


Also it looks like Minnesota is in the same position - split GOP.
So should be relatively easy for Obama to defend his lead.

[WI_DEM]

1. hard to say. We have to make sure we secure states like Wisconsin and Iowa first.

[Ian62]

2. Yep there is a balance to be struck between the 10 or so swing states.

But if Romney is forced to spend disproportionately in Az he has less available to spend elsewhere.
And the ground game in Az does not look good for GOP.

Any idea what Obama's ground game is like in Az?
It's a traditional GOP state

Just a suggestion - might be worth some thought.

[Tx4obama]

3. Yeah, but - Arizona has 11 electoral votes. Wisonsin 10. Iowa 6. So...

So it would be a good idea to go for those 11 electoral votes in Arizona too

And also because I would love to see Governor Brewer's face if Obama were to win Arizona

[EC]

4. I'm thinking that in many of these red states

Johnson on the Libertarian ticket will split the votes. I'm hoping anyway.

[Ian62]

6. Yep, that is a very good point

Johnson is not adequately reflected in polls as he is not specifically named.
Only about half his effect is probably included in current polls.
It's only small %ages but a few states are close enough for it to make a difference.

Johnson takes roughly 5 votes from Romney for every 2 from Obama, so the better he does, the better for us.
I don't know what Johnson polls like in Az.

His home state New Mexico? Was a bit of a one off.
All the rest seemed to conform to the above but there is not much data.

Ron Paul people are going to vote for Johnson, or not bother turning out.
They won't vote for Romney (the great majority).
Especially after Romney pissed them all off in Tampa. (We should try and use that.)

Just looked.
Paul only got 8.6% of vote in Az primary.
But it was closed, so there will be some more Independents.
Something around 10% of people that would otherwise normally have voted for GOP won't be.

Could be worth doing a private poll for Arizona with Gary Johnson named in it.
You might find that Romney's lead in Az is reduced from the current purported 10% to about 5%.
Then it really would be worth going for.

[panader0]

5. I voted in the primary yesterday

Carmona (D), former Surgeon General will face 6 time Rep Flake (R) for Kyl's seat. Grijalva won his first contested primary, and Ron Barber won his primary to face McSally (R).
This used to be district 8, now it's district 2, So Az.
Go Az Democrats!!