Donald Trump will lose the 2020 election

[fleabiscuit]

Donald Trump will lose the 2020 election

Pollsters famously got the 2016 presidential election wrong. HuffPost, for example, listed Hillary Clinton’s chances of winning at 99 percent right up until the race was called for Donald Trump.

Data experts have tried to learn from that epic fail -- and one has proven especially successful, so far. Rachel Bitecofer, the assistant director of the Wason Center for Public Policy at Virginia’s Christopher Newport University, created a unique prediction model that almost perfectly foretold the results of the 2018 midterm election. (The model concluded the Democrats would pick up 42 House seats; the Dems gained 40 seats.)

Now Bitecofer says that same model, which she says “departs significantly” from well-known data site FiveThirtyEight’s approach, makes clear that Donald Trump will not win reelection next year.

So what do you all think. I find myself grasping at any positive news.

https://www.oregonlive.com/politics/2019/07/donald-trump-will-lose-the-2020-election-concludes-unique-prediction-model-that-nailed-2018-midterm-results.html?utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=theoregonian_sf&utm_source=facebook&fbclid=IwAR2OFHTJGYo_5A26BoaDWC2ca9N61s2lCf_oZEMzuPvk6xZIa06TQ1EOurs

[blue neen]

1. It's good news. I'll take it.

Indeed.

[fleabiscuit]

3. You and me both friend.

[blue neen]

5. I like the way Ms. Bitecofer thinks!

[fleabiscuit]

8. You and me both!

[Tiggeroshii]

2. Taking it with a grain of salt until the last state is called on election night.

I will take nothing for granted anymore.

[fleabiscuit]

4. Yup. Everyday I see a positive path for the next election but still hold my breath.

[yonder]

6. I'll grasp at that straw of hope.

[TeamPooka]

7. "Whoever wins the Democratic nomination -- other than possibly Bernie, that is -- will defeat Trump"

[fleabiscuit]

9. Shouldn't be an issue. The betting markets have him currently in 5th place.

[Maru Kitteh]

19. RT and Sputnik went all in for Sanders (and Stein) before; I expect a similar effort of some kind

whether they back Sanders or some other candidate against whoever becomes the Democratic nominee apparent.

[TreasonousBastard]

10. I don't care what magic tea leaves she's reading-- the election is still too far away...

and anything can happen.

Nonetheless, I firmly believe that the "silent majority" out there now sees just what a useless asshole he is and will vote him out. If they vote, that is.

[MarcA]

13. And If they are allowed to vote. n/t

[coeur_de_lion]

21. And if their vote is counted accurately

[Midnight Writer]

16. Exactly. As they say, a poll is just a snapshot of one time. Too many variables to predict now.

[Kablooie]

11. This final sentence in the article rings true to me.

The complacent electorate of 2016, who were convinced Trump would never be president,” she writes, “has been replaced with the terrified electorate of 2020, who are convinced he’s the Terminator and can’t be stopped. Under my model, that distinction is not only important, it is everything.

[fleabiscuit]

14. You and me both Kablooie. I'm one of the terrified electorate.

[larwdem]

12. all I can do is hope

they are right

[aeromanKC]

15. Hillary wins in 2016 if the perception wasn't Hillary in a Landslide

Too many people either stayed home, didn't GOTV as hard as they would have or voted for Jill Stein.

This will not happen again!! (See 2018)

[JohnnyRingo]

17. I'm going to go shut off the gas stove now.

Whew! That was close.

[fleabiscuit]

18. LOL. All electric house here, but I guess I could fire up the cars in the garage. nt

[JohnnyRingo]

20. If you have a Prius, it could take a month or two.

A Prius actually emits fewer pollutants at idle than a 1964 Mustang with the engine off. When they measure cars they put them in airtight enclosures and record emissions from the entire car. True fact.