Next recession will come in 2020, Zillow survey of economists suggests

[Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin]

The nation's longest running economic expansion is expected to last until 2020, when a panel of housing experts and economists thinks the next recession will begin.

Zillow on Thursday released its second-quarter Home Price Expectations Survey, which asked more than 100 real estate economists and experts about the national housing market and their expectations about the next recession.

Half said the next recession will start in 2020, with nearly one in five identifying the third quarter as the likely beginning. Another 35 percent said the current expansion will end in 2021.

-snip-

Trade policy was cited as the most likely cause for the next recession, followed by a stock market correction and geopolitical crisis. Only a few experts predicted that a housing slowdown will be a significant factor in causing an economic downturn.

“Housing slowdowns have been a major component, if not catalyst, for economic recessions in the past, but that won’t be the case the next time around, primarily because housing will have worked out its kinks ahead of time,” Skylar Olsen, Zillow director of economic research, said in a news release.

She said markets across the country are heading into "a potential correction."

https://www.bizjournals.com/seattle/news/2019/07/25/next-recession-will-come-in-2020-zillow-survey-of.html?iana=hpmvp_sea_news_headline

It'll be interesting to see. I can hear Trump screaming "fake news" already.

[Iliyah]

1. It's here in slow mo.

[drray23]

2. And as usual, we will end up with a Democrat having to fix the mess

Of the previous Republican administration. This has been the pattern forever and yet gopers believe that they are the financially responsible ones...

[BigmanPigman]

4. Unless the Racist Rapist gets reelected and the powers that be

will figure out how to delay it to put it on the Dems as usual.

[Vinca]

6. And they'll blame the Democrats for the whole thing.

[GulfCoast66]

3. Predictions about the next recession are like the second coming...

Never believe them.

In my 53 years of experience they happen fast when unexpected.

[progree]

5. According to the NBER, the official arbiter, recessions begin at the high point

Per the NBER ( http://www.nber.org/cycles/recessions_faq.html ), recessions (contractions) begin at the peak of the economy and end at the trough (bottom) of the economy. And expansions (recoveries) begin at the trough of the economy and end at the peak of the economy.

What this means is that if the recession begins in let's say Q3 2020, it will still be near the high point in November 2020. So this isn't good news election-wise. Some leading economic indicators, like the stock market, might be down before then, but probably not way down at that point.

[Amishman]

7. The stock market is due for a major correction

Both price to earnings and price to book value are way above the historical average. Stocks as a whole are very overvalued right now

[progree]

8. Perhaps. Interest rates are way down compared to the previous periods, and it is

bonds that compete with stocks. There have been analyses done that take interest rates to account, and while stocks still appear overvalued, it's not by the gargangtuan amounts that e.g. Shiller's CAPE ratio indicate.

People have been saying stocks are overvalued by various metrics for decades with the exception of course of the post dot-com crash and post housing bubble crash periods.

I was worried when interest rates were rising in 2018, as serious competition from the bond market will upend the stock market applecart. But interest rates at the 2 year and beyond have been dropping since late 2018, and short-term rates are likely headed down as well.

For example, the 10 year Treasury rate
https://ycharts.com/indicators/10_year_treasury_rate