Early days but pay attention

[malaise]

Last edited Wed Jul 31, 2019, 09:54 AM - Edit history (1)

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

2. A tropical wave located over the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean, a
few hundred miles south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands,
continues to produce a broad area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. No significant development of this system is
expected for the next few days while it moves westward at about 15
mph. Thereafter, upper-level winds are forecast to gradually become
more conducive, and a tropical depression could form over the
weekend several hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

https://spaghettimodels.com/

[CousinIT]

1. Thanks.

[malaise]

4. You know what's amazing

When I posted this it was at 40% - now it's 50%.

[safeinOhio]

2. Are the ocean temps higher

than normal? That always seems to be a big factor in hurricane season.

[watoos]

3. I was on vacation

a month ago at the Outer Banks and the ocean was cold, for me, 67 degrees.

[malaise]

5. I'll check the Caribbean

We had family here for a few days and every freaking beach in sight was covered with the Sargassum weed. Only yesterday I heard them discussing red tide in one parish.

This is all over the Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico. Something is going on for sure.

[ehrnst]

6. Sea surface temps drive hurricane strength

Hurricanes gain and lose wind speed based on the temperature of the ocean water below. It's why they form in the tropics and break apart over cooler water and land. ... ELSNER: “With warmer oceans caused by global warming, we can expect the strongest storms to get stronger.”

https://www.yaleclimateconnections.org/2016/08/warmer-oceans-stronger-hurricanes/

[malaise]

7. That is one of the key factors

Another is atmospheric conditions

[malaise]

8. Here are the global sea surface temperatures

https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane

Temperatures have been rising for some time

[malaise]

9. Kick - up to 60% now n/t

[malaise]

10. Up to 70% now

Still early days but we need to pay attention