General Discussion

malaise

(297,921 posts) Wed Jul 31, 2019, 06:31 AM Jul 2019

Early days but pay attention

Last edited Wed Jul 31, 2019, 09:54 AM - Edit history (1)

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

2. A tropical wave located over the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean, a
few hundred miles south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands,
continues to produce a broad area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. No significant development of this system is
expected for the next few days while it moves westward at about 15
mph. Thereafter, upper-level winds are forecast to gradually become
more conducive, and a tropical depression could form over the
weekend several hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

https://spaghettimodels.com/

10 replies

= new reply since forum marked as read

Highlight:

Early days but pay attention (Original Post) malaise Jul 2019 OP

Thanks. CousinIT Jul 2019 #1

You know what's amazing malaise Jul 2019 #4

Are the ocean temps higher safeinOhio Jul 2019 #2

I was on vacation watoos Jul 2019 #3

I'll check the Caribbean malaise Jul 2019 #5

Sea surface temps drive hurricane strength ehrnst Jul 2019 #6

That is one of the key factors malaise Jul 2019 #7

Here are the global sea surface temperatures malaise Jul 2019 #8

Kick - up to 60% now n/t malaise Jul 2019 #9

Up to 70% now malaise Jul 2019 #10

CousinIT

(12,745 posts)

1. Thanks.

Reply to malaise (Original post)

Wed Jul 31, 2019, 06:56 AM

Jul 2019

malaise

(297,921 posts)

4. You know what's amazing

Reply to CousinIT (Reply #1)

Wed Jul 31, 2019, 07:40 AM

Jul 2019

When I posted this it was at 40% - now it's 50%.

safeinOhio

(38,034 posts)

2. Are the ocean temps higher

Reply to malaise (Original post)

Wed Jul 31, 2019, 07:15 AM

Jul 2019

than normal? That always seems to be a big factor in hurricane season.

watoos

(7,142 posts)

3. I was on vacation

Reply to safeinOhio (Reply #2)

Wed Jul 31, 2019, 07:37 AM

Jul 2019

a month ago at the Outer Banks and the ocean was cold, for me, 67 degrees.

malaise

(297,921 posts)

5. I'll check the Caribbean

Reply to safeinOhio (Reply #2)

Wed Jul 31, 2019, 07:43 AM

Jul 2019

We had family here for a few days and every freaking beach in sight was covered with the Sargassum weed. Only yesterday I heard them discussing red tide in one parish.

This is all over the Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico. Something is going on for sure.

ehrnst

(32,640 posts)

6. Sea surface temps drive hurricane strength

Reply to safeinOhio (Reply #2)

Wed Jul 31, 2019, 07:44 AM

Jul 2019

Hurricanes gain and lose wind speed based on the temperature of the ocean water below. It's why they form in the tropics and break apart over cooler water and land. ... ELSNER: “With warmer oceans caused by global warming, we can expect the strongest storms to get stronger.”

https://www.yaleclimateconnections.org/2016/08/warmer-oceans-stronger-hurricanes/

malaise

(297,921 posts)

7. That is one of the key factors

Reply to safeinOhio (Reply #2)

Wed Jul 31, 2019, 09:44 AM

Jul 2019

Another is atmospheric conditions

malaise

(297,921 posts)

8. Here are the global sea surface temperatures

Reply to safeinOhio (Reply #2)

Wed Jul 31, 2019, 09:57 AM

Jul 2019

https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane

Temperatures have been rising for some time

malaise

(297,921 posts)

9. Kick - up to 60% now n/t

Reply to malaise (Original post)

Wed Jul 31, 2019, 04:00 PM

Jul 2019

malaise

(297,921 posts)

10. Up to 70% now

Reply to malaise (Original post)

Wed Jul 31, 2019, 08:30 PM

Jul 2019

Still early days but we need to pay attention

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