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https://www.politicususa.com/2019/08/13/blue-wave-brewing-trump-numbers-collapse-swing-states.htmlPosted on Tue, Aug 13th, 2019 by Sean Colarossi
Another Blue Wave Is Brewing As Trumps Numbers Collapse In 10 Swing States
Donald Trump has done nothing to reach out to swing voters during his presidency, and he appears to be suffering in key battleground states as a result.
Rachel Maddow MSNBC
@maddow
Trump underwater in...
- Wisconsin (by 10)
- North Carolina (by 9)
- Virginia (by 17)
- Utah (by 3)
- Pennsylvania (by 12)
- Texas (by 1)
- New Hampshire (by 26) (not a typo)
- Michigan (by 11)
- Iowa (by 4)
- Arizona (by 9)
Wait... Utah?
snip//
The suburbs are abandoning Trump
Donald Trump is banking on his enthusiastic base to give him another four years in the White House, but suburban voters are abandoning him. It might not matter if the MAGA base is riled up come 2020.
As The Hill noted on Tuesday, Trump is performing poorly with some of the key voting blocs that populate the nations suburbs, notably white women and white college graduates.
His unpopularity among these groups could be enough to push the swing states he barely won in 2016 back into the blue column.
With the help of Russian interference, former FBI director James Comeys ill-timed letter and an unpopular Democratic nominee, Donald Trump was able to thread the needle in 2016.
As of today, the numbers indicate that he will have a difficult time replicating his 2016 victory next year.
Hekate
(90,686 posts)Demovictory9
(32,456 posts)struggle4progress
(118,282 posts)Butterflylady
(3,543 posts)Of threads about Russian interference, if we can get out the vote and I truly believe this time around with what this anal idiot has done to our nation, we will we have a blue wave. If we keep up being so negative we will lose. I for one will not bow to negativity.
struggle4progress
(118,282 posts)But the GOP-Russian issue is real, and we should not ignore it
That doesn't mean 2020 is hopeless, if we do our work
Ace Rothstein
(3,163 posts)Abandoning Trump is not enough.
Liberal In Texas
(13,552 posts)NCLefty
(3,678 posts)He's only down by 1 point in TX in that poll.
I'm super worried about all the non-voters. 92 million last time. Are they mostly checked out still? Probably. Eek!
crazytown
(7,277 posts)They are holding the third debate in Houston. There have been three polls showing Biden / and or Beto 7 points in front of Trump in TX
napi21
(45,806 posts)1. Hillary was VERY unpopular with Repubs & a lot of Dems.
2. The media had hammered the "Hillary will win" for many months, and some non-voters felt why bother!
3. A lot of people who voted for "The Liar" regret doing so. They're upset by so many things he's done.
4. Russian tactics have been exposed so they won't be nearly as effective again.
I believe he'll keep his 35%-40% base, but that won't be enough to win again.
Alpeduez21
(1,751 posts)so they won't be nearly as effective again.
Perhaps the trolling of social media will not be as effective but it will still have an effect.
More importantly, they have access to voting polling. Hell, some repukes gave it to them. Imagine showing up to vote but democratic voters have had their polling location moved. Russians have had this information for years. 2016 was practice. With the complete lack of concern by repukes I think Russia could be poised to be VERY disruptive
JCMach1
(27,558 posts)If Biden and/or Beto is on the ticket, TX is at least in play (though I still say a very purple reach).
xmas74
(29,674 posts)In 2016 Missouri was deep red, like a sunburn. 2018 midterm showed it getting lighter. I believe I read a few others were the same.
Will our nominee win Missouri? Not unless the DNC gets boots on the ground and reminds the farmers whose trade war is preventing them from making a profit. It could possibly help with congressional and gubernatorial races.
pstokely
(10,528 posts)geographically too big for too few electoral votes, the biggest media markets overlap into states that the definitely won't be in play other than maybe IA
xmas74
(29,674 posts)But our other races need some backing. I don't know how many candidates Ive heard in the last two cycles state that they received little support. The governor's race will be big. People don't like Parsons while Galloway polls well. Just a few stops and fundraising by a couple of big ticket members could help a few campaigns.
They'd be smart to put money in Galloway and Gross. Gross is totally grass roots. I saw people at the GOP tent listen to him and were very interested in exactly how much power the AG has to influence their lives. They're interested in his promise to attack dark money and they're interested in Galloway and her audit discoveries.
kurtcagle
(1,603 posts)Alaska's GOP governor Mike Dunleavy has slashed the State ferry system, cutting off many coastal rural communities altogether from access except by seaplane. This is leaving a very sour taste in the mouth of even die-hard Republicans there. Couple that with the tariffs (China was a big consumer of Alaskan seafood) and the picture looks fairly bleak for the GOP in 2020 there.
Norbert
(6,039 posts)We have yet to learn our Brownbackenstein lesson. Maybe in about 7-9 years.
NCLefty
(3,678 posts)Trump is the greasiest pig the GOP has produced in our lifetimes.
Wounded Bear
(58,656 posts)Ace Rothstein
(3,163 posts)...that doesn't mean they won't vote for him.
we know the kochs and their ilk will pour billions into the campaign in order to grease the skids for red don.
They will pay any price in order to get another 4 years to drive the nation over the cliff.
We need our numbers to overwhelm their anti-democratic aims.
Progressive Jones
(6,011 posts)ProudMNDemocrat
(16,785 posts)The candidate who gets to 270 first, is the next president of the United States.
Trump may try to contest the results, but he must concede. Which we know he will not do.
Thekaspervote
(32,767 posts)ProudMNDemocrat
(16,785 posts)That is the icing on the cake.
Quixote1818
(28,936 posts)Quixote1818
(28,936 posts)Won't that be the day when it happens!
crazytown
(7,277 posts)I couldn't stand it.
Meadowoak
(5,546 posts)onetexan
(13,041 posts)Thekaspervote
(32,767 posts)House of Roberts
(5,170 posts)lost to Obama in 2008.
sarisataka
(18,654 posts)But can we at least nominate a candidate before planning the victory party?
I recall in the week prior to the election in 2016 when I questioned if some people were overconfident about states that appeared shaky, being "guaranteed" a Democratic victory and that I could "take it to the bank".
Vdizzle
(383 posts)We cant underestimate their treachery. I hold no illusions that this will be a fair election. I bet they sit comfortably and dont worry about swing states because they know they have already rigged it. Im sure Putin has put the orange thing in the White House at ease by assuring him that they got this.
We have to overwhelm them at the polls. We have to overcome their cheating.
Midnight Writer
(21,765 posts)Laura PourMeADrink
(42,770 posts)Sogo
(4,986 posts)....may he drown in a blue tsunami in November, 2020....
crazytown
(7,277 posts)uponit7771
(90,339 posts)kairos12
(12,861 posts)They will do it again.
uponit7771
(90,339 posts)... never know
Laura PourMeADrink
(42,770 posts)threshold where they realize if we exceed X% no one will believe u "won" Donald. Wasn't Hillary leading in ,MI WI &,PA last time he stole it,?
IronLionZion
(45,442 posts)our side has gotten positive airtime recently with many great candidates and ideas shared in the debates while Trump spews garbage.
The polls were all wrong in 2016 too when we all thought Hillary would win big.
OliverQ
(3,363 posts)And I wonder if Republicans will see this and decide they better ditch him before they lose everything.
Laura PourMeADrink
(42,770 posts)rocktivity
(44,576 posts)as of today. And Real Clear Politics is about as GOP as you can get:
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_trump_job_approval-6179.html
But we're still close to a year away, and we mustn't put anything past them. For instance, don't be surprised if we don't have have a functional Internet at this time next year:
Leaked Draft of Trump Executive Order to 'Censor the Internet' Denounced as Dangerous, Unconstitutional Edict
Josh Hawleys bill to limit your Twitter time to 30 minutes a day
And you certainly shouldn't be surprised that Trump's base seems to be shrinking. They were a minority group to begin with -- there wasn't enough of them for him to win on the popular vote alone the first time around, remember?
rocktivity
xmas74
(29,674 posts)Unfortunately, he's my senator in what was predicted to be a tight race. It was so odd how he managed to beat Claire by such a large margin when nothing showed it being a runaway race.
SWBTATTReg
(22,124 posts)Hawley did. She was my senator and I was too, disappointed at her standings. We need to get someone to face Hawley next time around who a younger more dynamic candidate in MO and take him out. He's a religious nut imposing his will and desires on Missourian's rights to be on the internet for however long that they might want to be, etc.
Lucid Dreamer
(584 posts)And you certainly shouldn't be surprised that Trump's base seems to be shrinking. They were a minority group to begin with -- there wasn't enough of them for him to win on the popular vote alone the first time around, remember? -- rocktivity
People that support trump don't say so in polls. That's a big reason why everybody is so surprised when they don't match with reality.
Favorable poll data should be banned on DU. Does nothing but get us in trouble.
--I am kidding of course. But not much.
nitpicker
(7,153 posts)Again, my general rule is to add (at least) 5 percentage points to Repug candidates.
By that rule, don't expect UT, TX or IA to be in the D column.
-
calimary
(81,267 posts)Unpopular Democratic nominees dont get a popular vote thats roughly THREE MILLION MORE votes than the GOP opponent got.
FUCK YOU, whoever wrote that story!!!
Thekaspervote
(32,767 posts)Laura PourMeADrink
(42,770 posts)All having to live with a literal criminal charading as a bad president, she bites her tongue. I'd be on TV every day!
MadDAsHell
(2,067 posts)That's the problem with cult of personality politics.
We've got incredibly encouraging signs but a ton of work yet to do for 2020 and you're still handwringing over perceptions of the nominee from 3 years ago...
littlemissmartypants
(22,656 posts)And as varied as the wind. We don't need false hope. We need boots on the ground. I signed up today to help on the first campaign of many I plan to support this time around.
The only way we win is by making connections, facing reality without the fantasy of polls, one person at a time.
GOTV is the answer to every question.
It is really the only answer that I trust.
klook
(12,155 posts)TeamPooka
(24,226 posts)Hoyt
(54,770 posts)Dave in VA
(2,037 posts)Saw this somewhere and thought it was worth repeating!
Hoyt
(54,770 posts)Lucid Dreamer
(584 posts)said everybody here in 2016.
Hell, even I was saying that all the way till 2am.
As MSNBCs Rachel Maddow pointed out on Tuesday, Trump is underwater in 10 swing states including Utah (!) ahead of next years election, and it should have his reelection team deeply concerned.
Sure, Rachel. That sounds real familiar. You were still believing that even after the networks called the 2016 election.
I have stopped believing any BLUE MAP polls. Such complacency is perilous.
We need every vote in the center and right/center that we can get and not get all giddy with Big Blue Map news.
Wake up and remain fearful. Campaign like you are losing, not winning!
smirkymonkey
(63,221 posts)to victory again. And I can't say I am sure of that.
I really hate these cheating motherfuckers and there has got to be a way to shut them down before the election. Our next election must be fair and free from tampering by both foreign and domestic hijackers. We cannot let this happen again! Especially since we know that they will try it again. Forewarned is forearmed.
Lucid Dreamer
(584 posts)If elections are won by cheating, we need to cheat better.
smirkymonkey
(63,221 posts)I will do anything to win. I don't care what it takes. We need to be absolutely ruthless this time. Fuck them. We need to beat them at their own game.
calimary
(81,267 posts)then in order to level the playing field, we have to cheat, too. If we play the rules and the other side doesn't, that tilts the playing field against us no matter what we do. Besides, the Russians are still in the game, too, and they're even more highly motivated to keep their "asset" in power for as long as possible.
By now, I'm like you, smirkymonkey. Until the other side stops cheating and plays by the rules, I don't see why we still have to. All that means is we get our asses handed to us, every election cycle.
Better yet, we might have the element of surprise on our side. I suspect the opposition assumes we're just chumps and we won't cheat because values or principles or whatever. So then maybe we should do the unexpected. If that's the way the game is played, by now (and it IS), then we have no hopes of winning unless we can rig the game our way to some extent. At this point, there's no other way to level the playing field.
I've said for a long time by now that we need to be sneakier, and fight dirtier, because THAT is the playing field now. Otherwise, we're just a bunch of sitting ducks who play by the rules, win the popular vote, and then get rolled by weasels playing dirty and pulling whatever sneaky shit they think they need to pull, to win. We need some modern Machiavellis on our team.
The only game in town is WINNING. By hook or by crook. I believe it was Vince Lombardi who once said "there's only room for one place, and that's FIRST place."
colsohlibgal
(5,275 posts)Nice to seeing Ohio at least light blue. If he loses Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, let alone Ohio our long National Nightmare will be over and that evil dumb vain Orange Freak will be chargeable as a private citizen.
GoCubsGo
(32,083 posts)in the history of US Presidential elections Only Barack Obama got more votes than her. She beat The Asshole by over 3 million votes. This "unpopular" narrative needs to stop. It's bullshit.
Looks like the republicans are going to have to up their cheating game next year, if they want to keep that shitstain in office.
LanternWaste
(37,748 posts)...(and all other things being equal) Idiot Trump's numbers will collapse and a lot of conservatives, tired of rationalizing the irrational will simply not show up on voting day.
Jarqui
(10,125 posts)5 of the world's biggest economies are at risk of recession
https://www.cnn.com/2019/08/14/economy/recession-risk-economies/index.html
T-bills inverted again yesterday - as they did at the start of the year ... a sign of a coming recession.
The only thing propping Trump up has been the false sense of a good economy ... that's only really been good for those at the top of the income chart.
Between the steady impeachment bad press, his ongoing incompetence and an economy that is about to tank, the GOP will throw him under the bus and present a shinny new candidate with minimal time to vet. If Biden is picked, they will present a candidate who represents change in Washington.
We need to keep pounding away at pinning Trump on the GOP. They've enabled him and deserve the consequences in the next election.
sacto95834
(393 posts)"Make it so"
Kid Berwyn
(14,904 posts)Double down the pressure on Cheatolini.
ooky
(8,922 posts)We need to blanket NC with our ground game, pick up the electoral votes and throw out Tillis at the same time.
Obviously Michigan, Wisconsin and PA are huge, but NC looks to be a big opportunity as well.
JCMach1
(27,558 posts)I see this poll as the full Summer reaction to Trumps now openly racist policies and rhetoric.
Catherine Vincent
(34,490 posts)we can do it
(12,184 posts)TlalocW
(15,382 posts)Huh.
TlalocW
CapnSteve
(219 posts)...aka Houston, Austin, El Paso, Dallas, and San Antonio! Harris County (Houston) went for Hillary in 2016, and is in the vanguard to flip Texas back blue. Most people dont remember - Texas was blue 30 years ago (the heady days of Gov. Anne, Barbara Jordan, Molly Ivins...) and will be again!!
Tick tick tick...