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Yavin4

(35,354 posts)
Wed Aug 14, 2019, 06:42 PM Aug 2019

We may not survive this next recession

The last one was ugly and brutal, and we were saved by Obama, a man of class and calm which was just what we needed. If we have another 2008 style recession, to paraphrase Coach Rick Pitino, "Obama aint walking through that door, folks".

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We may not survive this next recession (Original Post) Yavin4 Aug 2019 OP
Shootings, recession . . . enid602 Aug 2019 #1
This may be the price we literally pay to get rid of tRump. BigmanPigman Aug 2019 #2
This message was self-deleted by its author AncientGeezer Aug 2019 #3
Not even close?... lame54 Aug 2019 #6
Post removed Post removed Aug 2019 #10
Please. Ford and GM and even Chrysler still being around is because Obama refused to let them... brush Aug 2019 #18
And every southern GOP Senator with foreign car makers in their states wanted the Big 3 to die... IthinkThereforeIAM Aug 2019 #33
There is zero question that Obama helped, particularly with the stimulus. TwilightZone Aug 2019 #11
Wow! Read really? Okey dokey Lochloosa Aug 2019 #15
Try that inaccurate line with auto workers at GM, Ford and Chrysler. The repugs wanted to let them.. brush Aug 2019 #21
You are very wrong about that edhopper Aug 2019 #22
Oh really? Woodycall Aug 2019 #24
We must remember that Bush borrowed money for the Iraq war from China but kept that debt off the... brush Aug 2019 #37
Abso-fucking-lutely Woodycall Aug 2019 #40
I remember it well captain queeg Aug 2019 #51
When you say "Bush borrowed money for the Iraq war from China"..... A HERETIC I AM Aug 2019 #41
Supplemental and emergency appropriations...borrowed money not raised domestically brush Aug 2019 #42
OK...wait a sec...I know it's late.... A HERETIC I AM Aug 2019 #43
China holds a good percentage of US debt. That's pretty commonly known...thru bonds, or however. brush Aug 2019 #46
This is false on its face uponit7771 Aug 2019 #47
Anyone wishing for a recession is a damned fool. Sneederbunk Aug 2019 #4
Economic cycles happen. Just look at 200 years of various economic charts. empedocles Aug 2019 #5
Anybody wanna buy some extra tulips I got for sale? Cheap. 3Hotdogs Aug 2019 #8
1 special tuplip traded at the right time, got a whole, working farm and a empedocles Aug 2019 #9
LMAO!!!! Xolodno Aug 2019 #32
The massively exposed, [by the Information Age], widely despised trump; empedocles Aug 2019 #7
It is more scary this time around Jarqui Aug 2019 #12
Yep ck4829 Aug 2019 #50
The last recession was powered by Turbineguy Aug 2019 #13
Agreed ProudLib72 Aug 2019 #31
If there is a recession before the election he will be gone BannonsLiver Aug 2019 #14
Yep... looking at the 20 or so Democratic candidates we have at this time... IthinkThereforeIAM Aug 2019 #34
Give President Obama credit for the stimulus. Give Nancy credit for the bailout. Hotler Aug 2019 #16
Quite an article! srobertss Aug 2019 #25
Your last paragraph echos my sentiments exactly... IthinkThereforeIAM Aug 2019 #35
We need to focus on defeating Trump, increasing the House majority and Blue_true Aug 2019 #17
Because of 15 years of low interest rates bucolic_frolic Aug 2019 #19
Does Jeff Bezos' yacht help? n/t Yavin4 Aug 2019 #28
Will the Trumpsters still brag that it is the Trump economy? keithbvadu2 Aug 2019 #20
LOL ck4829 Aug 2019 #49
I hope every farmer who voted for trump ends up living in the gutter EveHammond13 Aug 2019 #23
I hope every PERSON who voted for Trump ends up in a gutter. Coventina Aug 2019 #44
We survived all those 19th century crises and the Depression - we'll make it through the Trump Slump sandensea Aug 2019 #26
Trump's billionaire tax cuts have robbed the funds for any government stimulus AdamGG Aug 2019 #27
One source of stimulation would be college loan forgiveness jmbar2 Aug 2019 #29
I'll probably get summarily silenced for this but... TheCrankyLiberal Aug 2019 #30
Where Is That Stock And Dollar Crash I've Been Waiting For All These Years? klook Aug 2019 #36
Get ready for negative interest rates and dollar devaluation. roamer65 Aug 2019 #38
Really? In what way not survive? PoindexterOglethorpe Aug 2019 #39
Nah. That recession was a (predictable) housing crash based on shitty banker behavior (primarily). NCLefty Aug 2019 #45
Correct take Loki Liesmith Aug 2019 #53
K&R ck4829 Aug 2019 #48
Unlikely Loki Liesmith Aug 2019 #52

Response to Yavin4 (Original post)

Response to lame54 (Reply #6)

brush

(53,467 posts)
18. Please. Ford and GM and even Chrysler still being around is because Obama refused to let them...
Wed Aug 14, 2019, 08:44 PM
Aug 2019

Last edited Wed Aug 14, 2019, 09:47 PM - Edit history (1)

go under like the repugs were calling for. I don't know about you but I was around then. Why don't you remember that? And then there is the stimulus package he also pushed for.

IthinkThereforeIAM

(3,072 posts)
33. And every southern GOP Senator with foreign car makers in their states wanted the Big 3 to die...
Wed Aug 14, 2019, 09:58 PM
Aug 2019

... something that I vividly remember.

TwilightZone

(25,342 posts)
11. There is zero question that Obama helped, particularly with the stimulus.
Wed Aug 14, 2019, 07:14 PM
Aug 2019

"Five years later, it is clear to all fair-minded economists that the stimulus did work, and that it did enormous good for the economy and for tens of millions of people. "

https://www.nytimes.com/2014/02/23/opinion/sunday/what-the-stimulus-accomplished.html

brush

(53,467 posts)
21. Try that inaccurate line with auto workers at GM, Ford and Chrysler. The repugs wanted to let them..
Wed Aug 14, 2019, 08:49 PM
Aug 2019

fail but Obama worked out a package where they stayed in business. Imagine this country without an auto industry—talking about 3rd-world status—you don't let those hundreds of thousands of jobs disappear and still have a healthy economy. And I'm counting all of the suppliers and restaurants and other businesses that operate near auto plants and depend on the auto workers for much of their business.

It was the great recession, not just any run-of-the-mill downturn. It was the worst since the great depression and it almost became that.

edhopper

(33,164 posts)
22. You are very wrong about that
Wed Aug 14, 2019, 08:55 PM
Aug 2019

he did save the economy, I wish he had done more, like make Wall Street pay for their crimes. But the world economy was on the verge of something truly bad. His actions stabilized it. And the debt is called Keynesian Economics, look it up. And FDR while you are at it.

Woodycall

(259 posts)
24. Oh really?
Wed Aug 14, 2019, 09:15 PM
Aug 2019

The debt burdens Obama inherited were non-dischargeable obligations left to him by W's administration. They were on our national "books" or "baked in the cake" as they say because of (among other things) the Bush tax cut, the war in Afghanistan, and the war in Iraq. A small amount of the earlier deficits were due to the bailouts which were eventually repaid with interest. In short, the Bush debt obligations were assumed by the Obama administration and that debt was in the process of being mitigated throughout Obama's term. The deficit and debt increased by decreasing amounts under Obama, which means they were on-track to being "paid off" in common parlance. I know this because I pay attention, I understand such things, and I was there. Where were you?

brush

(53,467 posts)
37. We must remember that Bush borrowed money for the Iraq war from China but kept that debt off the...
Wed Aug 14, 2019, 10:42 PM
Aug 2019

books. The Obama admin. shouldered that burden and put it ON THE BOOKS and along with W's other debts, proceeded to dig the country out of the steep hole Bush's policies dug us into.

Btw, W inherited a large budget surplus from Clinton which he squandered with a tax cut that hardly amounted to anything to the average American. So O not only dug us out of the hole where we were losing 700k jobs a month to one creating 250-300k a month. He turned over an expanding economy to trump who takes credit for what Obama built from a DOW of 7550 to nearly 20,000 when he left office.

After the continued Obama expansion for trump's first year (which he takes credit for), the trump economy has stayed in a trading range from 23500 to 26700— it just goes up and down in that range which it never breaks out of. It's hard to make money off the ups and downs if you're just an average 401k person as your value will just go up and down with the market.

Woodycall

(259 posts)
40. Abso-fucking-lutely
Thu Aug 15, 2019, 01:16 AM
Aug 2019

As of the year 1999, the national debt was on-tract to be COMPLETELY paid off by ~2010-2012. But very few remember that and even fewer really understand it. And that's what the powers that be count on. And so it goes on and on and on and on.....

captain queeg

(10,035 posts)
51. I remember it well
Thu Aug 15, 2019, 08:20 AM
Aug 2019

I can’t understand how the repugs sell themselves as the fiscally Conservative party. They have finally stopped touting themselves as such since their tax breaks for the rich got pushed thru. I guess even they knew what a joke it was.

A HERETIC I AM

(24,317 posts)
41. When you say "Bush borrowed money for the Iraq war from China".....
Thu Aug 15, 2019, 01:32 AM
Aug 2019

How do you mean that, exactly?

Did Bush, or the US Government in some form of another go to the Chinese leadership or some central bank of theirs, hat in hand, and ask for a loan?

IS that what you are saying?

brush

(53,467 posts)
42. Supplemental and emergency appropriations...borrowed money not raised domestically
Thu Aug 15, 2019, 01:50 AM
Aug 2019
When the US invaded Iraq in March 2003, the Bush administration estimated that it would cost $50-60bn to overthrow Saddam Hussein and establish a functioning government. This estimate was catastrophically wrong: the war in Iraq has cost $823.2bn between 2003 and 2011. Some estimates suggesting that it may eventually cost as much as $3.7tn when factoring in the long-term costs of caring for the wounded and the families of those killed.

The most striking fact about the cost of the war in Iraq has been the extent to which it has been kept "off the books" of the government's ledgers and hidden from the American people. This was done by design.


The most obvious way in which the true cost of this war was kept hidden was with the use of supplemental appropriations to fund the occupation. By one estimate, 70% of the costs of wars in Iraq and Afghanistan between 2003 and 2008 were funded with supplemental or emergency appropriations approved outside the Pentagon's annual budget.


https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2013/mar/11/us-public-defrauded-hidden-cost-iraq-war

A HERETIC I AM

(24,317 posts)
43. OK...wait a sec...I know it's late....
Thu Aug 15, 2019, 02:36 AM
Aug 2019

"borrowed money not raised domestically"

What do you mean by THAT?

Because that statement or any sentiment, inference or anecdote that even resembles that idea appears nowhere in the article you quoted from and linked.

Here's where I'm going;

The money spent is a result of the sale of US Treasury bonds. ALL deficit spending of the US Government is gotten that way, with VERY few exceptions, and those exceptions are typically clandestine and relatively minimal (think Iran/Contra).

The idea that it was "not raised domestically" is not accurate to the extent that US Treasuries are auctioned at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and no one, not China, Japan or your Aunt Millie is required to purchase these debt securities and the US Government does not physically go to other countries or banks or sovereign wealth funds or whatever and ask for money.

These bonds are auctioned off and willingly purchased by entities who view them as a safe way to preserve capital and make some interest payments along the way.

We don't "Borrow money from China" as is so often mentioned here and elsewhere. China holds Treasury Bonds and they are free to buy and sell them at any time to any willing buyer. When any series they hold matures, the Treasury pays them the face value, in full (In US DOLLARS, mind you). What they aren't able to do is demand early redemption. In other words, they can not in any way, shape or form, demand the US Treasury pay them in full for bonds they hold before their maturity date.

Any such request and they would be laughed right out of the building.

brush

(53,467 posts)
46. China holds a good percentage of US debt. That's pretty commonly known...thru bonds, or however.
Thu Aug 15, 2019, 06:56 AM
Aug 2019

This was no secret once financial reporters got on the story tbat the Iraq war debts weren't on the books.

You can easily research it more yourself you know as to why the financing of the war was kept secret for as long as possible from the public.

empedocles

(15,751 posts)
9. 1 special tuplip traded at the right time, got a whole, working farm and a
Wed Aug 14, 2019, 07:09 PM
Aug 2019

whole lot more - back then.

empedocles

(15,751 posts)
7. The massively exposed, [by the Information Age], widely despised trump;
Wed Aug 14, 2019, 07:04 PM
Aug 2019

may provide a tremendous opportunity to set the ship of state on a much better course. [After great pain and suffering make the wrongs sink in.]

[Of course the perennial problems of excess greed, hate, stupidity, megalomania, etc. need to be effectively checked and balanced].

Jarqui

(10,110 posts)
12. It is more scary this time around
Wed Aug 14, 2019, 07:14 PM
Aug 2019

Interest rates are already pretty low.
Trump already spent the equivalent of a stimulus on the top 1% tax break and ballooned the deficit.

The world confidence in the US to spend their way out of this one has to be at an all time low.

I'm frightened this could be beyond a recession - maybe a depression. We have a buffoon at the wheel whose only repetitive financial record is bankruptcy and borrowing from Russian oligarchs.

The only positive is that it would eliminate any chance of him being reelected. I suspect the GOP already have someone waiting in the wings to run in 2020 anyway ...

ProudLib72

(17,984 posts)
31. Agreed
Wed Aug 14, 2019, 09:36 PM
Aug 2019

It's apples and oranges. I don't want to speculate based on this comparison. The one and only thing I will say about it is that I hope the 1% have to pay dearly for the recovery.

BannonsLiver

(16,161 posts)
14. If there is a recession before the election he will be gone
Wed Aug 14, 2019, 07:19 PM
Aug 2019

I’m pretty confident any of the leading Dems are competent and able enough to clean it up, just like last time.

IthinkThereforeIAM

(3,072 posts)
34. Yep... looking at the 20 or so Democratic candidates we have at this time...
Wed Aug 14, 2019, 10:03 PM
Aug 2019

... it appears the incoming cabinet positions will have some qualified people to fill the secretary positions available.

Hotler

(11,353 posts)
16. Give President Obama credit for the stimulus. Give Nancy credit for the bailout.
Wed Aug 14, 2019, 08:37 PM
Aug 2019

"It was, according to accounts filtering out of the White House, an extraordinary scene. Hank Paulson, the US treasury secretary and a man with a personal fortune estimated at $700m (£380m), had got down on one knee before the most powerful woman in Congress, Nancy Pelosi, and begged her to save his plan to rescue Wall Street."

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2008/sep/27/wallstreet.useconomy1

srobertss

(261 posts)
25. Quite an article!
Wed Aug 14, 2019, 09:17 PM
Aug 2019

I wasn’t paying close attention back then. I had no idea that Obama and McCain were part of the planning on the stimulus and that they were fighting Republicans arguing for more deregulation. I’m trying to imagine Trump bringing a bipartisan meeting together under similar circumstances. We are in big trouble if this keeps developing. Is it possible that McConnell might actually swallow his hubris and try to bring in saner heads if the economy is on the line? Am I crazy for even posing the question?

But even if they did come to their senses a bit, as others have mentioned, it doesn’t seem like we have any maneuvering room with interest rates so low and the deficit so high.

Part of me has been half hoping for the economy to take a downturn just to unravel support for these clowns. But the other part of me knew that was wishing for a lot of suffering. And now I realize I had no idea how relatively well Republicans and Democrats coalesced together to minimize the damage in 2008.

Wow. We are truly in a precarious position.

IthinkThereforeIAM

(3,072 posts)
35. Your last paragraph echos my sentiments exactly...
Wed Aug 14, 2019, 10:07 PM
Aug 2019

... I hate to say this, but sometimes, some folks only begin to realize things after they have been hit between the eyes with a 2x4.

Blue_true

(31,261 posts)
17. We need to focus on defeating Trump, increasing the House majority and
Wed Aug 14, 2019, 08:42 PM
Aug 2019

retaking the Senate. Nancy Pelosi will likely hold things toghether with bailing wire until we give her a democratic President and Senate in January 2021, so that things can start getting fixed.

bucolic_frolic

(42,653 posts)
19. Because of 15 years of low interest rates
Wed Aug 14, 2019, 08:45 PM
Aug 2019

which haven't been above about 5% since 2001, and were .25% QE1-2-3, we have overcapacity in everything. The Greenspan years were about overcapacity and created the housing bubble. Now we have more overcapacity. Small company stocks? Biotechs? There must be 5000 microcap biotechs with negative earnings for decades to come, some losing $15, $30, $85 a share ... yet able to float stock and borrow more. How much more consumer electronics do we need from China? More luxury autos and auto loans. People are underwater on their auto loans, 25% or something like that are behind in their loans. The shakeout is coming.

I think the Florida housing bubble of the 1920s is the closest thing to this time period. We're headed for a hosing and a cleansing. The Trump tax cuts will make it impossible to revive, or maybe clawing back some of those cuts will help.

keithbvadu2

(36,360 posts)
20. Will the Trumpsters still brag that it is the Trump economy?
Wed Aug 14, 2019, 08:47 PM
Aug 2019

Will the Trumpsters still brag that it is the Trump economy?

'Only I can fix it.'

sandensea

(21,526 posts)
26. We survived all those 19th century crises and the Depression - we'll make it through the Trump Slump
Wed Aug 14, 2019, 09:21 PM
Aug 2019

And look at other countries. Some of them have had several depressions in the last century - and they're still there.

A bit frayed around the edges, but still there.

jmbar2

(4,828 posts)
29. One source of stimulation would be college loan forgiveness
Wed Aug 14, 2019, 09:29 PM
Aug 2019

It would free up huge amounts of spending power among young families. One of the few levers I can think of.

 

TheCrankyLiberal

(35 posts)
30. I'll probably get summarily silenced for this but...
Wed Aug 14, 2019, 09:30 PM
Aug 2019

The last thing we want to do in an emotion/speculative economy is start screaming recession just yet. It does appear that's where things are heading but at the same time, why doesn't anyone acknowledge that the sharper the rise the quicker the fall.
This was the whole reason behind Bernakes "quantitative easing" to control the dip while synthesizing growth, holding it and then allowing the sectors that influence market growth the catch up. We did this by inflating our currency, thus manipulating our currency's worth. Something conservatives for a long time have railed against because it makes us less able to handle natural market corrections.
China devalued their currency to handle the tariffs and I venture to guess that had we not come from a situation where we had ridden the last year of a bull economy with an artificially inflated currency, their devaluation wouldn't have effected our market so hard.

klook

(12,134 posts)
36. Where Is That Stock And Dollar Crash I've Been Waiting For All These Years?
Wed Aug 14, 2019, 10:19 PM
Aug 2019
Where Is That Stock And Dollar Crash I’ve Been Waiting For All These Years?
- from Mark-Jan Werner Blog, 2014

Fear sells. For years a big fear-mongering industry has been putting out books and articles about how the economy is going down the drain soon and the U.S. dollar will be worth less than the paper it is printed on. The bears have been saying this for years. Here are a few (hilarious) examples of “Doom & Gloom” books over the years that I found.

Below is picture of an impressive 300-page book by Doug Casey called “Crisis Investing: Opportunities and Profits in the Coming Depression“. In this book Doug Casey makes the case that the market is about to crash any minute now! The dollar will be destroyed soon and the stock market is going to zero. The next great depression is just around the corner. You have to act fast before all your wealth, that you have been carefully building up for years, will vanish in front of your eyes! But wait.. Let’s check something.. When did this book hit the shelves? July 1980?! There certainly hasn’t been a “new great depression” since then.
- More at link








I'm not saying we won't have a serious correction soon, or even a recession... because nobody can predict these things. However, the U.S. economy has been robust over the long haul. Spans of several years over the past hundred years show ups and downs, with overall economic growth, even including the Great Depression of the 1930s.

Don't get me wrong: I've been anticipating a serious downturn in the American economy every since Drumpfenfuhrer slithered into the Oval Office, and I still am. But, given the many economic catastrophes the U.S. has recovered from, I don't see the damage being permanent. Long-lasting? Sure, that's a distinct possibility. We shall see.

In the meantime, it's prudent not to carry too much debt if possible, and to have as much of a savings cushion as feasible. I know, that's a tall order for many of us, and so there is real danger of serious repercussions making life difficult for a lot of Americans. For that reason, as much as I want to see Trump go down -- and a severe recession in 2020 would certainly help that cause -- it would also cause a lot of misery and hardship. So I don't relish the thought.

roamer65

(36,739 posts)
38. Get ready for negative interest rates and dollar devaluation.
Wed Aug 14, 2019, 11:47 PM
Aug 2019

The only way out of $22T plus of debt is to inflate.

PoindexterOglethorpe

(25,746 posts)
39. Really? In what way not survive?
Thu Aug 15, 2019, 12:04 AM
Aug 2019

Everyone will lose their homes and all 300 and some million of us will be homeless? There will be massive starvation?

How exactly are you defining "not survive"?

Be realistic. Then scroll up and reread klook's excellent post.

People love to predict a crash and a horrible, horrible Depression. While not to underplay the actual financial pain and disruption of the recent recession, it was hardly the end of everything. And all here who smugly sold all of their stocks when Trump was elected, have sat out a pretty serious rise in the stock market.

NCLefty

(3,678 posts)
45. Nah. That recession was a (predictable) housing crash based on shitty banker behavior (primarily).
Thu Aug 15, 2019, 03:55 AM
Aug 2019

This one, unless I hear differently, is a more garden-variety down-swing. Which would be Not At All the same. The Bush Jr. Economic Disaster required unpopular "bail-outs" and such to correct it. This one would require Sound Fiscal Responses to counter it.. and eventually we level out and start growing again. Of course, Trump is president, and tries to fuck with the interest rate by berating the Fed chairman on Twitter, so... /shrug?

2020 isn't far away. If the economy starts really tanking, for any reason, Trump will be out like a bad stain and we Democrats will fix it again, just like Obama had to do for Bush Jr.

Disclaimer: This is not my field of expertise so I probably don't know what I'm talking about :p

Loki Liesmith

(4,602 posts)
52. Unlikely
Thu Aug 15, 2019, 09:04 AM
Aug 2019

The last recession was working off a huge distortion in the market in a massive sector. This next recession seems to be a conventional business cycle recession.

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