Dorian is now officially a Category 5.. EDIT: 185mph winds! 2nd strongest in Atlantic history

[Roland99]

Last edited Sun Sep 1, 2019, 12:59 PM - Edit history (2)

Link to tweet

Michael Ventrice
✔
@MJVentrice
National Hurricane Center has just announced #Dorian has intensified into a Category-5 Major Hurricane with sustained winds of 160mph and a central low pressure of 927mb.

Latest forecast track has shifted a bit west

Link to tweet

[jpak]

1. The Bahamas are going to get it bad

https://www.windy.com/?2019-09-02-21,26.271,-78.497,8

[Baclava]

44. Like an EF-4 tornado on the ground for not minutes but for 12-24 hrs

Catastrophic damage

[KY_EnviroGuy]

2. Looks like flooding in coastal low country will be the worst hazard if....

the NWS track holds. Perhaps tornadoes as well along the coast. However, in a couple of days it could still shift either east or west.

Track appears to be approximately 50-miles off the coast 'till it lands at Hatteras....

[kentuck]

3. What a monster!

I hope their forecasts are accurate? That it does miss the States and skirts back into the Atlantic.

[Baclava]

17. This thing IS a monster CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 DORIAN CONTINUING TO INTENSIFY

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that Dorian has continued to intensify, and now has maximum
sustained winds near 175 mph (280 km/h), with a minimum central
pressure of 922 mb (27.23 inches).

[superpatriotman]

4. Broward and PB counties back in cone

When we went to bed last night we were optimistic

Now not so much

[Roland99]

6. ICON, Canadian, and MPAS still have it coming onshore

[bucolic_frolic]

5. Nuke that Sucker!

Why won't Trump test his stable genius theory? Trump is the only one who can fix it!

[SergeStorms]

8. Let's face it...

Trump is the only person who can do anything! Where would the world be without the most intelligent, skillful, creative, inquisitive, learned, humble, and esteemed human being to have ever walked our planet? No one has ever done anything better than Donald Trump. Just ask him.

[bdamomma]

59. Don't give that jerk

any ideas! Climate denier that he is.

[trusty elf]

10. ...

[Newest Reality]

27. Fixed!

[The Blue Flower]

7. If it skirts the coast going north the damage will be massive

In total, worse than a direct hit onto land.

[lastlib]

12. We shoulda put God back in schools..........

Now we're reeeeallly gonna get it.............

--- ---

[NCjack]

15. Put GOD back in our churches, and stop mistreating kids. nt

[CentralMass]

23. Matthew caused about $ 5 billion in damages.

[Roland99]

9. ECM shifting a bit more west in 20-25% of runs

Link to tweet

Todd Crawford
@tcrawf_nh
Takeaway from 06Z ECM ens...disturbing W trend continues. 20-25% now make FL landfall with #Dorian, only 10% from previous run. Minor track differences are difference between millions/billions in coastal damage and thousands/millions power outages in FL (and then GA/SC/NC)

[patphil]

11. The Bahama's will never be the same...it will be much worse than Puerto Rico.

[mfcorey1]

13. I agree!! I just pray there are no fatalities and that the people are

in some sort of safe shelter. I have been trying to research if a CAT 5 has ever hit the area before.

[crazytown]

18. The storm surge is predicted to be 18 (or more) feet

The highest elevation in the Bahamas is 65 ft.

[Delphinus]

47. My wonderings

are if there will be any of the island left.

[flying_wahini]

14. Hurricane Ike '08 had 145 mph at my home. Scary as hell, too.

We went 13 days without power in my neighborhood and couldn’t leave because the
roads had downed trees everywhere. Took about 5 days to clear them. We left while we still had enough gas to clear the no gasoline area that extended to DFW area. (185 miles away).

Those poor people. Gonna be real bad.

[luvs2sing]

51. Hurricane Ike had 80 mph sustained winds

at our house in Columbus, Ohio! Took out our gazebo and a couple big trees. We were without power for three days. It gave me a whole new appreciation for these terrible storms.

[Sancho]

16. My favorite site for information...

Mike's Weather Page: https://spaghettimodels.com

He's on FB too...

[StarryNite]

30. Thank you for sharing that link.

[Cetacea]

19. "Should be a cat 6". Wind gusts to 200mph so far.

Sadly, the storm is going to wreck the Bahamas. Think Sandy with 150+ winds.

[Roland99]

20. Max sustained: 180mph. Strong F3 tornado, what, 20-30 miles wide?!

[Cetacea]

21. Yes. And it's just entered warm waters.

85-90 degrees from there to Florida coast.

[Roland99]

22. And it's warm deeper. No colder water to upwell. Gusts higher up hitting 224!!

[sir pball]

53. The SS scale isn't mathematical like the Beaufort/Fujita/Mach scales

It's purely damage-oriented...there's no need for "Cat 6", once you get to winds over 160mph sustained for tens of minutes it's just total devastation, even an extra 100mph doesn't really matter.

It's like how there is technically an EF6 (actually up to 12) but nobody ever uses it because EF5 literally scours the dirt clear. Not much point in scaling the damage level any higher.

[Cetacea]

60. Thank you n/t

[CentralMass]

24. What a beast

[malaise]

25. Pressure has now dropped to 913mb

Damn!

[pangaia]

26. 913 !!!!!!!!

Yikes....

[malaise]

28. From the WP

Its pressure, down to 913 millibars, is lower than Hurricane Andrew's ..

[Roland99]

38. 906-908mb now!

Link to tweet

[malaise]

42. Frightening

Get out of the way people

[Baclava]

46. That is in Hurricane Camille territory, better hope that 90 degree turn north timing is accurate

Still heading due west, the cone of uncertainty is still large with this one, scary

[malaise]

49. Local 10 Florida is now saying strongest hurricane ever recorded

Mother Nature is sending the Con a very strong signal

[sir pball]

52. I'm gonna need a citation on that

Tip was 870mb - 900 is pretty low but that would be a monster deepening if it's lost that much in 12 hours!

[Roland99]

29. And still moving westerly. If it doesn't turn north by Freeport...

[malaise]

31. Looks like it is going right through

Freeport - Floridians better not let their guard down - this could be bad

[kentuck]

32. I know what I would be doing.

Hauling my butt inward and northward ...

[malaise]

33. I would have been in Miami-Dade by now

North doesn't look like a good idea here. With this one I could be wrong.

[kentuck]

34. What if it doesn't turn north ?

It looks like it is going to hit Florida...If I was in Daytona, I would be moving.

[Roland99]

39. Will eventually make a turn north. When and where is a world of difference

Middle of the state would hit Orlando with probably Cat 2-3 strength

[malaise]

43. Even if it doesn't turn to the North

Miami-Dade won't get the worst of it.
I too would move from Daytona

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMAT5+shtml/011455.shtml?

[JCMach1]

37. Would go West from South Florida over to Sarasota

[JCMach1]

35. Serious doubts about how the models account for storms this strong

There is just not a lot of Cat 5 data in their models...

Heads up Florida,SC and NC

[Roland99]

36. And some think it undervalues the strength of the high pressure ridge

[JCMach1]

41. Too many variables... Think about a gyroscope top

Spin a it very fast and try to shift it with your finger. The faster in goes the harder it is to move with your finger. Now, throw in all of your weather variables...

Truth be told we just don't have that much Cat 5 data because it is so rare

[kentuck]

40. For real !

I am very skeptical of these models. It would be terrible to be lulled into some false security .

[malaise]

45. That's my real fear

for everyone in its path

[Baclava]

50. Some may remember Andrew was predicted to turn north too, never happened

These beasts sometimes have a mind of there own

[Roland99]

48. 185mph sustained

Link to tweet

The Weather Channel
✔
@weatherchannel
BREAKING: #HurricaneDorian has made landfall on Elbow Cay in the Abacos of the northwest Bahamas. Maximum sustained winds have increased to 185 mph.

[Scurrilous]

54. ...

[JCMach1]

55. Gusts to 220mph now

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCUAT5+shtml/011644.shtml

[triron]

56. Someone on weather channel said winds reported at 191 mph. Sustained or not?

So when is storm supposed to turn north? Still heading west very slowly.

[JCMach1]

57. 7 mph west is not as slow as they were predicting

It hasn't stalled yet

[Roland99]

58. It's 5mph now