HomeLatest ThreadsGreatest ThreadsForums & GroupsMy SubscriptionsMy Posts
DU Home » Latest Threads » Forums & Groups » Main » General Discussion (Forum) » Dorian is now officially ...

Sun Sep 1, 2019, 08:05 AM

Dorian is now officially a Category 5.. EDIT: 185mph winds! 2nd strongest in Atlantic history

Last edited Sun Sep 1, 2019, 12:59 PM - Edit history (2)




Michael Ventrice

@MJVentrice
National Hurricane Center has just announced #Dorian has intensified into a Category-5 Major Hurricane with sustained winds of 160mph and a central low pressure of 927mb.


Latest forecast track has shifted a bit west


60 replies, 4418 views

Reply to this thread

Back to top Alert abuse

Always highlight: 10 newest replies | Replies posted after I mark a forum
Replies to this discussion thread
Arrow 60 replies Author Time Post
Reply Dorian is now officially a Category 5.. EDIT: 185mph winds! 2nd strongest in Atlantic history (Original post)
Roland99 Sep 2019 OP
jpak Sep 2019 #1
Baclava Sep 2019 #44
KY_EnviroGuy Sep 2019 #2
kentuck Sep 2019 #3
Baclava Sep 2019 #17
superpatriotman Sep 2019 #4
Roland99 Sep 2019 #6
bucolic_frolic Sep 2019 #5
SergeStorms Sep 2019 #8
bdamomma Sep 2019 #59
trusty elf Sep 2019 #10
Newest Reality Sep 2019 #27
The Blue Flower Sep 2019 #7
lastlib Sep 2019 #12
NCjack Sep 2019 #15
CentralMass Sep 2019 #23
Roland99 Sep 2019 #9
patphil Sep 2019 #11
mfcorey1 Sep 2019 #13
crazytown Sep 2019 #18
Delphinus Sep 2019 #47
flying_wahini Sep 2019 #14
luvs2sing Sep 2019 #51
Sancho Sep 2019 #16
StarryNite Sep 2019 #30
Cetacea Sep 2019 #19
Roland99 Sep 2019 #20
Cetacea Sep 2019 #21
Roland99 Sep 2019 #22
sir pball Sep 2019 #53
Cetacea Sep 2019 #60
CentralMass Sep 2019 #24
malaise Sep 2019 #25
pangaia Sep 2019 #26
malaise Sep 2019 #28
Roland99 Sep 2019 #38
malaise Sep 2019 #42
Baclava Sep 2019 #46
malaise Sep 2019 #49
sir pball Sep 2019 #52
Roland99 Sep 2019 #29
malaise Sep 2019 #31
kentuck Sep 2019 #32
malaise Sep 2019 #33
kentuck Sep 2019 #34
Roland99 Sep 2019 #39
malaise Sep 2019 #43
JCMach1 Sep 2019 #37
JCMach1 Sep 2019 #35
Roland99 Sep 2019 #36
JCMach1 Sep 2019 #41
kentuck Sep 2019 #40
malaise Sep 2019 #45
Baclava Sep 2019 #50
Roland99 Sep 2019 #48
Scurrilous Sep 2019 #54
JCMach1 Sep 2019 #55
triron Sep 2019 #56
JCMach1 Sep 2019 #57
Roland99 Sep 2019 #58

Response to Roland99 (Original post)

Sun Sep 1, 2019, 08:10 AM

1. The Bahamas are going to get it bad

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to jpak (Reply #1)

Sun Sep 1, 2019, 12:51 PM

44. Like an EF-4 tornado on the ground for not minutes but for 12-24 hrs

Catastrophic damage

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Roland99 (Original post)

Sun Sep 1, 2019, 08:24 AM

2. Looks like flooding in coastal low country will be the worst hazard if....

the NWS track holds. Perhaps tornadoes as well along the coast. However, in a couple of days it could still shift either east or west.

Track appears to be approximately 50-miles off the coast 'till it lands at Hatteras....

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Roland99 (Original post)

Sun Sep 1, 2019, 08:31 AM

3. What a monster!

I hope their forecasts are accurate? That it does miss the States and skirts back into the Atlantic.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to kentuck (Reply #3)

Sun Sep 1, 2019, 10:48 AM

17. This thing IS a monster CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 DORIAN CONTINUING TO INTENSIFY


Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that Dorian has continued to intensify, and now has maximum
sustained winds near 175 mph (280 km/h), with a minimum central
pressure of 922 mb (27.23 inches).



Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Roland99 (Original post)

Sun Sep 1, 2019, 08:36 AM

4. Broward and PB counties back in cone

When we went to bed last night we were optimistic

Now not so much

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to superpatriotman (Reply #4)

Sun Sep 1, 2019, 09:51 AM

6. ICON, Canadian, and MPAS still have it coming onshore

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Roland99 (Original post)

Sun Sep 1, 2019, 09:22 AM

5. Nuke that Sucker!

Why won't Trump test his stable genius theory? Trump is the only one who can fix it!

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to bucolic_frolic (Reply #5)

Sun Sep 1, 2019, 10:16 AM

8. Let's face it...

Trump is the only person who can do anything! Where would the world be without the most intelligent, skillful, creative, inquisitive, learned, humble, and esteemed human being to have ever walked our planet? No one has ever done anything better than Donald Trump. Just ask him.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to SergeStorms (Reply #8)

Sun Sep 1, 2019, 05:31 PM

59. Don't give that jerk

any ideas! Climate denier that he is.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to bucolic_frolic (Reply #5)

Sun Sep 1, 2019, 10:20 AM

10. ...

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to bucolic_frolic (Reply #5)

Sun Sep 1, 2019, 11:52 AM

27. Fixed!

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Roland99 (Original post)

Sun Sep 1, 2019, 10:09 AM

7. If it skirts the coast going north the damage will be massive

In total, worse than a direct hit onto land.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to The Blue Flower (Reply #7)

Sun Sep 1, 2019, 10:28 AM

12. We shoulda put God back in schools..........

Now we're reeeeallly gonna get it.............

--- ---

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to lastlib (Reply #12)

Sun Sep 1, 2019, 10:38 AM

15. Put GOD back in our churches, and stop mistreating kids. nt

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to The Blue Flower (Reply #7)

Sun Sep 1, 2019, 11:38 AM

23. Matthew caused about $ 5 billion in damages.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Roland99 (Original post)

Sun Sep 1, 2019, 10:20 AM

9. ECM shifting a bit more west in 20-25% of runs





Todd Crawford
@tcrawf_nh
Takeaway from 06Z ECM ens...disturbing W trend continues. 20-25% now make FL landfall with #Dorian, only 10% from previous run. Minor track differences are difference between millions/billions in coastal damage and thousands/millions power outages in FL (and then GA/SC/NC)

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Roland99 (Original post)

Sun Sep 1, 2019, 10:24 AM

11. The Bahama's will never be the same...it will be much worse than Puerto Rico.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to patphil (Reply #11)

Sun Sep 1, 2019, 10:28 AM

13. I agree!! I just pray there are no fatalities and that the people are

in some sort of safe shelter. I have been trying to research if a CAT 5 has ever hit the area before.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to mfcorey1 (Reply #13)

Sun Sep 1, 2019, 10:55 AM

18. The storm surge is predicted to be 18 (or more) feet

The highest elevation in the Bahamas is 65 ft.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to crazytown (Reply #18)

Sun Sep 1, 2019, 12:58 PM

47. My wonderings

are if there will be any of the island left.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Roland99 (Original post)

Sun Sep 1, 2019, 10:35 AM

14. Hurricane Ike '08 had 145 mph at my home. Scary as hell, too.


We went 13 days without power in my neighborhood and couldn’t leave because the
roads had downed trees everywhere. Took about 5 days to clear them. We left while we still had enough gas to clear the no gasoline area that extended to DFW area. (185 miles away).

Those poor people. Gonna be real bad.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to flying_wahini (Reply #14)

Sun Sep 1, 2019, 01:11 PM

51. Hurricane Ike had 80 mph sustained winds

at our house in Columbus, Ohio! Took out our gazebo and a couple big trees. We were without power for three days. It gave me a whole new appreciation for these terrible storms.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Roland99 (Original post)

Sun Sep 1, 2019, 10:41 AM

16. My favorite site for information...

Mike's Weather Page: https://spaghettimodels.com

He's on FB too...

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Sancho (Reply #16)

Sun Sep 1, 2019, 12:14 PM

30. Thank you for sharing that link.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Roland99 (Original post)

Sun Sep 1, 2019, 10:57 AM

19. "Should be a cat 6". Wind gusts to 200mph so far.

Sadly, the storm is going to wreck the Bahamas. Think Sandy with 150+ winds.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Cetacea (Reply #19)

Sun Sep 1, 2019, 11:02 AM

20. Max sustained: 180mph. Strong F3 tornado, what, 20-30 miles wide?!

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Roland99 (Reply #20)

Sun Sep 1, 2019, 11:09 AM

21. Yes. And it's just entered warm waters.

85-90 degrees from there to Florida coast.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Cetacea (Reply #21)

Sun Sep 1, 2019, 11:29 AM

22. And it's warm deeper. No colder water to upwell. Gusts higher up hitting 224!!

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Cetacea (Reply #19)

Sun Sep 1, 2019, 02:03 PM

53. The SS scale isn't mathematical like the Beaufort/Fujita/Mach scales

It's purely damage-oriented...there's no need for "Cat 6", once you get to winds over 160mph sustained for tens of minutes it's just total devastation, even an extra 100mph doesn't really matter.

It's like how there is technically an EF6 (actually up to 12) but nobody ever uses it because EF5 literally scours the dirt clear. Not much point in scaling the damage level any higher.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to sir pball (Reply #53)

Tue Sep 3, 2019, 12:59 AM

60. Thank you n/t

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Roland99 (Original post)

Sun Sep 1, 2019, 11:42 AM

24. What a beast

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Roland99 (Original post)

Sun Sep 1, 2019, 11:42 AM

25. Pressure has now dropped to 913mb

Damn!

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to malaise (Reply #25)

Sun Sep 1, 2019, 11:47 AM

26. 913 !!!!!!!!

Yikes....

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to pangaia (Reply #26)

Sun Sep 1, 2019, 11:54 AM

28. From the WP

Its pressure, down to 913 millibars, is lower than Hurricane Andrew's ..

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to malaise (Reply #28)

Sun Sep 1, 2019, 12:42 PM

38. 906-908mb now!

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Roland99 (Reply #38)

Sun Sep 1, 2019, 12:48 PM

42. Frightening

Get out of the way people

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to malaise (Reply #28)

Sun Sep 1, 2019, 12:58 PM

46. That is in Hurricane Camille territory, better hope that 90 degree turn north timing is accurate

Still heading due west, the cone of uncertainty is still large with this one, scary

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Baclava (Reply #46)

Sun Sep 1, 2019, 01:01 PM

49. Local 10 Florida is now saying strongest hurricane ever recorded

Mother Nature is sending the Con a very strong signal

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to malaise (Reply #49)

Sun Sep 1, 2019, 01:57 PM

52. I'm gonna need a citation on that

Tip was 870mb - 900 is pretty low but that would be a monster deepening if it's lost that much in 12 hours!

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to malaise (Reply #25)

Sun Sep 1, 2019, 12:07 PM

29. And still moving westerly. If it doesn't turn north by Freeport...


Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Roland99 (Reply #29)

Sun Sep 1, 2019, 12:14 PM

31. Looks like it is going right through

Freeport - Floridians better not let their guard down - this could be bad

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to malaise (Reply #31)

Sun Sep 1, 2019, 12:33 PM

32. I know what I would be doing.

Hauling my butt inward and northward ...

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to kentuck (Reply #32)

Sun Sep 1, 2019, 12:35 PM

33. I would have been in Miami-Dade by now

North doesn't look like a good idea here. With this one I could be wrong.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to malaise (Reply #33)

Sun Sep 1, 2019, 12:40 PM

34. What if it doesn't turn north ?

It looks like it is going to hit Florida...If I was in Daytona, I would be moving.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to kentuck (Reply #34)

Sun Sep 1, 2019, 12:44 PM

39. Will eventually make a turn north. When and where is a world of difference

Middle of the state would hit Orlando with probably Cat 2-3 strength

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to kentuck (Reply #34)

Sun Sep 1, 2019, 12:51 PM

43. Even if it doesn't turn to the North

Miami-Dade won't get the worst of it.
I too would move from Daytona

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMAT5+shtml/011455.shtml?

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to kentuck (Reply #32)

Sun Sep 1, 2019, 12:42 PM

37. Would go West from South Florida over to Sarasota

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Roland99 (Original post)

Sun Sep 1, 2019, 12:41 PM

35. Serious doubts about how the models account for storms this strong

There is just not a lot of Cat 5 data in their models...

Heads up Florida,SC and NC

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to JCMach1 (Reply #35)

Sun Sep 1, 2019, 12:41 PM

36. And some think it undervalues the strength of the high pressure ridge

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Roland99 (Reply #36)

Sun Sep 1, 2019, 12:45 PM

41. Too many variables... Think about a gyroscope top

Spin a it very fast and try to shift it with your finger. The faster in goes the harder it is to move with your finger. Now, throw in all of your weather variables...

Truth be told we just don't have that much Cat 5 data because it is so rare

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to JCMach1 (Reply #35)

Sun Sep 1, 2019, 12:44 PM

40. For real !

I am very skeptical of these models. It would be terrible to be lulled into some false security .

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to kentuck (Reply #40)

Sun Sep 1, 2019, 12:52 PM

45. That's my real fear

for everyone in its path

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to JCMach1 (Reply #35)

Sun Sep 1, 2019, 01:05 PM

50. Some may remember Andrew was predicted to turn north too, never happened

These beasts sometimes have a mind of there own

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Roland99 (Original post)

Sun Sep 1, 2019, 01:00 PM

48. 185mph sustained




The Weather Channel

@weatherchannel
BREAKING: #HurricaneDorian has made landfall on Elbow Cay in the Abacos of the northwest Bahamas. Maximum sustained winds have increased to 185 mph.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Roland99 (Original post)

Sun Sep 1, 2019, 03:18 PM

54. ...

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink



Response to JCMach1 (Reply #55)

Sun Sep 1, 2019, 03:31 PM

56. Someone on weather channel said winds reported at 191 mph. Sustained or not?

So when is storm supposed to turn north? Still heading west very slowly.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to triron (Reply #56)

Sun Sep 1, 2019, 04:23 PM

57. 7 mph west is not as slow as they were predicting

It hasn't stalled yet

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to JCMach1 (Reply #57)

Sun Sep 1, 2019, 05:07 PM

58. It's 5mph now

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink

Reply to this thread