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Mon Sep 2, 2019, 10:47 PM

How LITTLE Dorian has moved today....

Dorian position today, as reported by NHC -

2 am 26.6N 78.1W
5 am 26.6N 78.2W
8 am 26.7N 78.2W
11 am 26.8N 78.3W
12 pm 26.8N 78.4W
2 pm 26.8N 78.4W
5 pm 26.8N 78.4W
9 pm 26.8N 78.4W

12 replies, 1157 views

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Arrow 12 replies Author Time Post
Reply How LITTLE Dorian has moved today.... (Original post)
Roland99 Sep 2019 OP
triron Sep 2019 #1
BigmanPigman Sep 2019 #2
Roland99 Sep 2019 #4
BigmanPigman Sep 2019 #7
unc70 Sep 2019 #3
Roland99 Sep 2019 #5
GulfCoast66 Sep 2019 #6
mnhtnbb Sep 2019 #8
Roland99 Sep 2019 #9
mnhtnbb Sep 2019 #11
LisaL Sep 2019 #10
mnhtnbb Sep 2019 #12

Response to Roland99 (Original post)

Mon Sep 2, 2019, 10:49 PM

1. revealing.

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Response to Roland99 (Original post)

Mon Sep 2, 2019, 10:52 PM

2. It is almost going in reverse.

A turtle could out run this monster.

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Response to BigmanPigman (Reply #2)

Mon Sep 2, 2019, 11:04 PM

4. It did about 7-8hrs ago. He'd lifted just north on a wobble

Then settled right back over the island

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Response to Roland99 (Reply #4)

Mon Sep 2, 2019, 11:08 PM

7. It's like a spinning top at this point.

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Response to Roland99 (Original post)

Mon Sep 2, 2019, 10:55 PM

3. 20-25 miles, mostly eyewall replacement cycle

During eyewall replacement, it is tricky determining the center if the storm.

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Response to unc70 (Reply #3)

Mon Sep 2, 2019, 11:05 PM

5. Not at the moment from what I've read

If so, would be the third in just over a day

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Response to Roland99 (Original post)

Mon Sep 2, 2019, 11:05 PM

6. Happens when they are about to change direction.

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Response to Roland99 (Original post)

Tue Sep 3, 2019, 08:12 AM

8. I wouldn't be surprised if it burns out

right where it is. No forward movement. Pressure steadily rising. Where is the energy going to come from to get it moving again?

I heard an interesting interview yesterday with a woman scientist who talked about why the pressure is rising due to the churning up of deeper colder water from Dorian staying in place AND the influence of warmer Arctic wind currents rather than cooler ones ( an effect of climate change) apparently make these hurricanes move when the cooler winds meet the warmer tropical winds of the hurricane.

That warm/cold air confrontation fueling movement was something I didn't know.

When you think about basic physics, it takes energy to overcome inertia (of an object). Does that hold true for a stalled hurricane? If so, where is the source of energy to get it moving again?

How long does it have to wait for cooler Arctic air currents to arrive? Will that happen before the pressure rises enough that it no longer becomes anything more than a tropical storm?

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Response to Roland99 (Reply #9)

Tue Sep 3, 2019, 08:30 AM

11. Interesting increases in stalling frequency

mentioned in both the linked article and another one referenced in it, without attribution to climate change as a cause. Hmmm, have we stumbled on a mystery? A controversy? A denial of effects of climate change ( look at the source, Forbes)?

Whatever it is, the poor people on Grand Island have been and continue to be hammered by Dorian just sitting there. I can't imagine there will be much left if, when it starts moving again.

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Response to mnhtnbb (Reply #8)

Tue Sep 3, 2019, 08:20 AM

10. It's supposed to make a move today.

Models don't show it burning out.

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Response to LisaL (Reply #10)

Tue Sep 3, 2019, 08:32 AM

12. Yes, but my question is about the science

of what makes it start moving again.

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