How LITTLE Dorian has moved today....

[Roland99]

Dorian position today, as reported by NHC -

2 am 26.6N 78.1W
5 am 26.6N 78.2W
8 am 26.7N 78.2W
11 am 26.8N 78.3W
12 pm 26.8N 78.4W
2 pm 26.8N 78.4W
5 pm 26.8N 78.4W
9 pm 26.8N 78.4W

[triron]

1. revealing.

[BigmanPigman]

2. It is almost going in reverse.

A turtle could out run this monster.

[Roland99]

4. It did about 7-8hrs ago. He'd lifted just north on a wobble

Then settled right back over the island

[BigmanPigman]

7. It's like a spinning top at this point.

[unc70]

3. 20-25 miles, mostly eyewall replacement cycle

During eyewall replacement, it is tricky determining the center if the storm.

[Roland99]

5. Not at the moment from what I've read

If so, would be the third in just over a day

[GulfCoast66]

6. Happens when they are about to change direction.

[mnhtnbb]

8. I wouldn't be surprised if it burns out

right where it is. No forward movement. Pressure steadily rising. Where is the energy going to come from to get it moving again?

I heard an interesting interview yesterday with a woman scientist who talked about why the pressure is rising due to the churning up of deeper colder water from Dorian staying in place AND the influence of warmer Arctic wind currents rather than cooler ones ( an effect of climate change) apparently make these hurricanes move when the cooler winds meet the warmer tropical winds of the hurricane.

That warm/cold air confrontation fueling movement was something I didn't know.

When you think about basic physics, it takes energy to overcome inertia (of an object). Does that hold true for a stalled hurricane? If so, where is the source of energy to get it moving again?

How long does it have to wait for cooler Arctic air currents to arrive? Will that happen before the pressure rises enough that it no longer becomes anything more than a tropical storm?

[Roland99]

9. Here's a good article on the stalling...

https://www.forbes.com/sites/marshallshepherd/2019/09/03/why-hurricane-dorian-has-stalled-over-the-bahamas/amp/

[mnhtnbb]

11. Interesting increases in stalling frequency

mentioned in both the linked article and another one referenced in it, without attribution to climate change as a cause. Hmmm, have we stumbled on a mystery? A controversy? A denial of effects of climate change ( look at the source, Forbes)?

Whatever it is, the poor people on Grand Island have been and continue to be hammered by Dorian just sitting there. I can't imagine there will be much left if, when it starts moving again.

[LisaL]

10. It's supposed to make a move today.

Models don't show it burning out.

[mnhtnbb]

12. Yes, but my question is about the science

of what makes it start moving again.