How Pelosi Moved Her Caucus to Yes

[StarfishSaver]

Reposting from May:

"Most of this the public never sees - but I have no doubt it's happening. And when we do get to an impeachment inquiry (which I think will happen), it will be seen by the country as their idea, not as something Nancy Pelosi forced on them. And I think she'll be fine not getting credit for her role in making it happen because she that's how she often rolls."

How I see Speaker Pelosi moving her Caucus to Yes
https://www.democraticunderground.com/100212151747

Many observers seem to think that Speaker Pelosi either is preventing the opening of an impeachment inquiry or is failing to use her power and influence to force her caucus to support it.

That's not how I see it.

Its not the Speaker's job - or advisable or probably even possible - for her to try to single-handedly whip a majority of her caucus into impeaching just by putting pressure on them. While she has enormous influence and power, she can't, completely on her own, turn her entire caucus around on a dime.

Shifting the caucus mood takes time and a concerted, strategic effort.

She's dealing with different equities and issues here and each has to be addressed differently. This is how I see it playing out:

Some Members want an impeachment inquiry opened now, their constituents are behind them and they're outspokenly saying it - they have nothing to lose and everything to gain in calling for the opening of an inquiry.

Some Members want an impeachment inquiry now, but their constituents aren't there yet. Just as you think Pelosi needs to push them to support impeachment, they need to cajole their constituents into supporting it. They know their constituents better than anyone and they know what to do to move them. Members are in a District Work Period now and you can bet the Members in this category are working on selling their constituents on impeachment. There is not much that Pelosi can do to help them with this directly but she can - and is - taking fire for them to give them political cover while they work on it.

However if they're not able to move their constituents but their vote isn't really needed to get the necessary numbers to support the opening of an impeachment inquiry, Pelosi may give them a pass in order to protect them in their district - perhaps with a condition that if she really needs their vote further down the line, she'll get it.

Other Members don't support the opening of an inquiry now, but a significant number of their constituents do. In this case, much of the burden lies on the constituents themselves to push their Member to move toward impeachment. But this is also where Pelosi can be effective by helping to pressure them from the top with the help of other Members of the Caucus who are whipping them from within. That Member-to-Member whipping operation is very strategic and comprehensive. I'm sure this is happening even if we don't see it because this is not done in public, but must be handled internally and very delicately.

And, finally, you have the Members who don't support impeachment and whose constituents also don't support it, either.. They're a tough sell and, depending on their numbers, they might not be worth putting too much effort into convincing if their vote isn't needed to move forward.

As this all happens, Pelosi is keeping track of every vote and where it is and where more can be gotten. When they get close but are a little short, and the other Members can't move their colleagues, THAT's when the Speaker steps in and starts cracking her whip. And she'll drag them over the finish line, if necessary.

Most of this the public never sees - but I have no doubt it's happening. And when we do get to an impeachment inquiry (which I think will happen), it will be seen by the country as their idea, not as something Nancy Pelosi forced on them. And I think she'll be fine not getting credit for her role in making it happen because she that's how she often rolls.

This is in play...

FYI, I worked in the House Democratic whip operation, so my assessment comes from direct personal knowledge.

[qazplm135]

1. I wasn't on board with the Pelosi sucks crowd...

nor am I on board with the Pelosi was playing 11th dimensional chess crowd like this article either.

Trump self-impeached. Pelosi was right about that, but she couldn't and didn't know how or when he'd do it, of if he'd do it in a time frame that allowed pre2020 election impeachment to be feasible.

So part of this is simply...well I won't say luck because Trump's entire manner is so chaotic and corrupt that he was a ticking time bomb for something to come out...but the timing and the substance is what allowed this to happen...otherwise, we'd still be where we were last week...in a constant cycle of "needing more" for impeachment.

I'm also still not convinced that the net positive of impeachment will go to our benefit. I know it will inspire his folks to turn out, but quite frankly I'm still skittish that enough progressives will come out in response, particularly if it's not Warren or Sanders. And if it's Warren or Sanders, I'm skittish that some moderates will sit out.

We simply do not do team unity like the other side does, and it could be what gets us. I hope I'm wrong.

[Me.]

2. Thanks For This

and looks like both you and she were right/correct. Experience counts.