General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsWant some optimism? Here's why Trump will lose in 2020...
You can listen to economists all day talk about how the (laughably) strong economy will propel Trump to victory in 2020, but the reality is this: number one is that incumbent presidents usually get in votes numbers very similar to what their approval ratings are. That gives Trump a floor of about 40% and a high of about 45%.
Number two is, old people tend to vote Republican. There are less of them alive now than there were in 2016. Young people tend to vote Democratic. There are LOTS of more them this time around that are now of voting age. Basically this article breaks down the demographics of what states have new voters compared to how many they've lost since 2016. The good news? The states that Trump flipped in 2016, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, have seen way more new Democrats register than Republicans. And they've lost quite a few Republican voters since the last election.
Remember that all the Democrat needs to do is win every state Clinton won and reclaim the blue firewall with those 3 states to win.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2019/09/19/more-voters-are-registering-than-dying-but-differences-by-state-could-shape/
"Then theres Texas. We noted before that there were more new Democrats there than Republicans in our data. Well note here that were still 14 months from the general election and these numbers will shift as more people register. That said, Texas is down in the lower left part of this graph, meaning more identifiably partisan registration and more of that registration made up of Democrats. More so than California!
Interesting but not as interesting as Michigan, where the new registrations are heavily Democratic. Thats in keeping with the average for those three states that turned red in 2016. They may have been won by Trump narrowly in 2016, but, since then, theyre registering a lot more Democrats.
Since 2016, those three states have lost 621,000 voters to death, may they rest in peace. Theyve added 1.4 million voters. L2?s data tells us that 752,000 of those new voters are Democrats and 247,000 are Republican a difference of 505,000.
These are the states that elected Trump by a combined 78,000 votes."
mucifer
(23,530 posts)That doesn't make sense to me.
Downtown Hound
(12,618 posts)Sorry to break this news to you.
pangaia
(24,324 posts)Shit !!
When ??
imanamerican63
(13,776 posts)I guess it the GOPers that are old and dying? Oh and she did not vote for Trump!
Downtown Hound
(12,618 posts)pangaia
(24,324 posts)An interesting thing--
we can imagine the death of someone else.....but never our own death...
Croney
(4,657 posts)People on the edge of old in 2016 are now old unless they died, but they're not dying at a faster rate than the people who were old in 2016. In fact, there may be more of them.
Downtown Hound
(12,618 posts)Basically, in the states that Trump flipped in 2016, there are way more new voter registrations than there are deaths overall, and a good amount of those that did die were Republicans. And of the new voter registrations that are happening, there are way more Democrats than Republicans being registered.
Combined, that gives the Dems quite a registration advantage going into 2020.
mucifer
(23,530 posts)people can be so rude
Croney
(4,657 posts)pangaia
(24,324 posts)Pompoy
(123 posts)SWBTATTReg
(22,112 posts)scumbag crooks are doing too, trading in advance of rump's statements, making a killing in the markets, and committing fraud. This fraud is going to probably help kill the markets finally, when people realize that they can't make a honest profit when rump's cronies are trading out there in the market, prior to rump making market moving news, and they make the profit, since they knew in advance of what rump is going to say. This is going to be a big item coming up...
Sneederbunk
(14,290 posts)Garrett78
(10,721 posts)..."I'll give him my vote/he won't win anyway" people won't vote for him a 2nd time. And we won't be nominating someone who was the target of vicious attacks for a quarter of a century (this suppressed turnout and boosted 3rd party voting).
On the other hand, foreign interference and voter suppression may be greater than ever before.
IronLionZion
(45,427 posts)"Younger voters are overwhelmingly Democratic but also tend to be lackadaisical about casting ballots. "
It's fantastic that our side has the advantage in registrations and demographics but we need to inspire high turnout from our voters. The other side is dug in their heels and are very hard to convince to flip to our side. We have to win this on turning out our people in enough of the right states.
As Amy Klobuchar said with her "Minnesota nice" smirk, let's build a big blue wall and make Donald Trump pay for it.