FWIW Virginia: "Races We're Watching on Election Night"

[RandySF]

GOP Leadership – Dels. Kirk Cox (HD-66), Tim Hugo (HD-40), and Chris Jones (HD-76)

House Speaker Kirk Cox and Appropriations Chairman Chris Jones both found themselves in redrawn districts this year after a judge threw out Virginia’s illegal racially-gerrymandered map, priming them to be top targets this year. Democrats have invested heavily in both of these races and have been targeting both GOP candidates with negative digital ads way back in July, before either Cox or Jones could introduce themselves to their new districts.

Cox entered the last week and a half of the election with just over half the cash on hand of his Democratic opponent, Sheila Bynum-Coleman, while Chris Jones was outraised in October – but he did have a cash on hand advantage as of October 24GOP House Caucus Chairman Tim Hugo was the last Republican standing in Northern Virginia after pulling out a 106-vote squeaker in 2017, and that was with a significant spending advantage. Hugo’s district gave 59% of its vote to Tim Kaine in last year’s US Senate race, and Hugo is being outraised and outspent this election cycle. His Democratic opponent, Dan Helmer, brought in over $840,000 in October and had a nearly 2:1 cash advantage as of October 24, with $417,709 in the bank compared to Hugo’s $218,524.

Redrawn Districts – Dels. Chris Stolle (HD-83), David Yancey (HD-94), Barry Knight (HD-81), OPEN (HD-96)

Cox and Jones aren’t the only Republicans fighting for their lives in new districts, though. Republican Delegates Chris Stolle, David Yancey, and Barry Knight all received new Democratic-leaning districts after the court-ordered redistricting.

It’s difficult to see any path to victory for David Yancey, who finished in a literal tie with Democrat Shelly Simonds in 2017, winning back his seat on a coin flip. Simonds, back for a rematch with Yancey, is now running in a strongly Democratic-leaning district and she outraised Yancey in October. However, Yancey does have a cash on hand advantage as of October 24.


Senate Retirements – OPEN (SD-7), OPEN (SD-13)

The entire Virginia State Senate is only up for re-election once every four years, so many incumbent GOP State Senators were shielded from the suburban realignment that decimated House Republicans in 2017. Democrats only need to pick up one seat to take control of the State Senate and are favored to do so on Tuesday, in part because of two open-seat races in now Democratic-leaning districts.

In SD 7, Democratic Del. Cheryl Turpin is running against Republican Jen Kiggans for the seat vacated by long-time incumbent Frank Wagner, who won the seat in 2015 after the most expensive Senate race in Virginia history. Every statewide Democrat carried the Virginia Beach-based district in 2017 and Tim Kaine carried 56% of the district’s vote in 2018. Turpin has outraised Kiggans significantly throughout the election, including throughout the month of October. This race looks good for Democrats, but it might be close on Election Night.


Possible Upsets – Sen. Chase (SD-11), Del. Freitas (HD-30)

Every election cycle inevitably has a handful of otherwise uncompetitive races that turn competitive after a candidate does something detrimental to their campaign – and this year is no different. In SD 11, GOP incumbent Amanda Chase’s long history of controversy, including running ads threatening to “shoot down” gun groups and calling rape victims “naive”, has turned a normally Republican-leaning district into a potentially competitive battleground. Democrats haven’t invested in this race at the same rate they have in other Senate races, but Democrat Amanda Pohl has matched Chase’s fundraising nearly dollar-for-dollar. Chase had just a roughly $20,000 cash on hand advantage as of October 24.



https://bluevirginia.us/2019/10/fwiw-virginia-races-were-watching-on-election-night

[underpants]

1. I'd love to see Cox lose

I'm expecting big results

[evertonfc]

2. question

Is this election in VA on Tuesday? Also, What Is at stake? This could be for telling. Thanks

[RandySF]

3. Yes, this Tuesday

for control of the State Legislature.