If there are GOP Senators searching for the best way to explain a vote to convict,

[Atticus]

how about "I've decided to accept Trump's confession"?

[beachbumbob]

1. senators don't vote to impeach, the house does that

Senate votes to convict or not

[Atticus]

2. You are, of course, correct. Thanks. See edit. nt

[IronLionZion]

14. Senate conviction means removal from office

They can also bar him from ever holding another federal office again for life if they wanted to.

[Pacifist Patriot]

3. I like it!

[beachbumbob]

4. they are 4 terrible options for McConnel and GOP/senate

and all have varying degrees of bad outcomes.

Right now the "best" negative outcome is not to hold a senate trial period. This will sooth the GOP/trump hardcore base and they will not deflect come Nov 2020. McConnell can achieve this many different ways. Now the downside with this, it rallies the opposition way more to come out and vote in record numbers across america BUT it does keep GOP base intact. GOP senators in close races will more likely lose and the democrats win the Senate and keep the house.

The next least worse option is to hold a "sham" trial and the vote is along party lines, this of course holds the GOP base intact BUT still rallies the opposition way more to come out and vote in record numbers across america. GOP senators in close races will more likely lose and the democrats win the Senate and keep the house.

The next least worse option is for a senate trial and some/any GOP senators vote guilty, trump is not convicted. This holds SOME but not all of the GOP base BUT still rallies the opposition way more to come out and vote in record numbers across america. GOP senators who voted "guilty" and those in close races will most likely lose.

Then the very worse option is for a senate trial and enough GOP senators vote guilty, and tump is convicted. The GOP base fractures with huge numbers staying home in Nov 2020 AND rallies the opposition even way more to come out and vote in record numbers across america. A change of political power never seen before in America will happen as democrats post wins every where on every level. The good thing with hardcore trumpers, they have zero problem with taking their ball home and not play at all.

thats why I say NO trial will be held. ZERO upside for GOP to do so

[machoneman]

5. Good analysis Bob!

Yes, no way is really good for them but, hey, they deserve it.

My guess: #3.

[beachbumbob]

6. I have watch GOP in action for 50 years at state and federal level and what we have today is

a travesty that being "good democrats" we have a hard time dealing with barbecue of our sense of morals, ethics and fairplay. Those values are gone and we have to adjust OUR response in the same manner. Thats tough to do. No such thing as taking the "high road" any more and we are suckers to think that is of value when you are fighting pure evil.

Having said that, predicting response is not difficult. McConnell simply has NO upside to even hold a trial

[kentuck]

7. What if Trumps screws up again, big time?

Or some very huge expose is breaking news, that cannot be swept under the rug?

Where do Mitch and the Republicans go then?

This impeachment process is the only thing holding the hounds at bay.

[lark]

11. As long as it doesn't involve Pence, they would dump him like a hot potato.

They would never in a million years do that and include Pence unless we had a smoking tape of him and drumpf making foreign policy to benefit a foreign country when it hurts the interests of the USA.

[Ford_Prefect]

13. I think he cannot avoid the next big screw up, or Trump has already initiated it.

The news that there is other, security-related, foreign aid being withheld from Lebanon, for example. That may turn out to be another link in the chain.

The effect of the continuing Presidential disrespect assault against service members, officers and service families is reaching a point where Senate and House members will not be able to answer either in the press or when met by their constituents. They have already lost much of this base group and are on the verge of losing the ability to swing "patriotic" audiences to their side of any issue.

McConnell may not be able to steer events as he has planned to do once evidence of the range and scope of this conspiracy becomes public. Republican legislators have voted in ignorance until that point. Surely some of them will rethink or be forced to do so. That may prove to be a step too far once the next shoe drops in the continuing clown opera at the White House.

Bullies like Trump and Mitch don't last long once the tide starts to turn, if for no other reason than they depend on herding their fellow sharks in directions that don't involve attacking the leaders.

[bigbrother05]

16. Think you're right, Jared has been all over the ME

His work to broker a Peace deal very likely included a lot of self/family dealing and promises that go against US interests.

This latest news that Israeli hacking SW has been used to spy on Western leaders is going to blow up and could land hard on anyone that's been conniving in the neighborhood.

[beachbumbob]

15. again, no upside for McConnell and GOP to do anything with trump

even if support hits 70% for impeachment and trumps disapproval its 70%, that 30% that is left over would walk come election time. We have to do the process and pass the articles of impeachment. Trump and GOP will do all they can to take charge of the dialogue with some HUGE tax break for people, some HUGE infrastructure bill all exploding the budget and deficits in HOPES of democrats saying NO. As I posted earlier, the democrats should say HELL yes and go for even BIGGER budget busting taxcuts and spending so GOP is forced to say NO NO NO NO.


the game has yet to begin folks

[wnylib]

21. That is the only possible scenario in

which I see a chance of a Senate conviction and even then it is iffy. Would have to be something that hurts and angers the Trumpists so that Senators feel compelled to convict.

More likely there will not be new revelations that strong. Instead Trump will be damaged by the evidence enough that he loses votes from independents and any moderates left in the country. And our own base comes out in large numbers to take the Senare and keep the House.

Will Republicans replace Trump as a candidate if it looks like he will not win? With whom? Pence? Romney?

[bucolic_frolic]

9. TRUMP BARBECUED MORALITY

THank you very much! Great take on it.

[Eyeball_Kid]

17. McConnell is holding at around 18% approval in Kentucky. The Ghost of Soupy Sales would beat him.

He's got his own problems with his re-election effort. He's got to find a way to improve his home numbers AND maintain GOP viability in the general election. He doesn't need to make another controversial move that will solidify his "disapprove" numbers. Denying a trial will do just that. He would become a national pariah.

Anything that stops Trumpy from being removed from office means that Trumpy will CONTINUE to violate the Constitution at his whim. Trumpy is a career criminal, and he'll continue to be a career criminal. Kentucky and the nation will see that McConnell enables Trumpy to violate the nation's charter. This will have the effect of poisoning the entire GOP, nationwide.

So I believe that McConnell will hold a trial in the Senate. And the evidence brought out in the public House hearings and the Senate trial will show the nation that the right, the logical, and the emotionally relieving thing to do is to remove Trumpy from office. The GOP will fight tooth and nail to avoid this, but it will become inevitable as we slog through this process.

[oldsoftie]

12. I disagree. NOT having the trial would look terrible to Independents. They win elections.

It would look like a protection of the president instead of letting the process work.

Let me add: holding the trial and the likely result being a non-conviction would allow trump to do the same thing he did after the Mueller report; claim "exoneration". "See, I told you all along i did nothing wrong"

[Eyeball_Kid]

19. The problem here is that Trumpy will continue to disgrace the nation if...

the Senate acquits. The public House hearings and the Senate trial will show that he's a plague on the nation, and an acquittal will anger the independents and everyone else except hardcore fascists and authoritarians. His "service" will poison the GOP well for elections to come. The risk is that the nation will view the GOP as unpatriotic and in the service of Russia.

The GOP painted themselves into this corner. Politically and morally, they're trapped by their own hubris, lack of vision, and incompetence.

[bucolic_frolic]

8. ACCEPT TRUMP'S CONFESSION

is a great slogan and makes for a great banner and appeal to GOP Senators!

You are magic, Atticus.

[wnylib]

22. A possible Dem campaign slogan if he is

not convicted? I would be very surprised if he is. But I think the impeachment evidence and his own admission will sway independents and bring out Dems in large numbers.

[certainot]

10. gop senators and staff unfortunately are more concerned with what limbaugh says

[duforsure]

18. I want to hear them say

Why they wouldn't convict after he confessed to extortion and why it was ok to use taxpayers money they appropriated for other things. That means he can then ignore the laws, and spend freely as HE wants, bypassing Congress. Why was it ok to obstruct justice, lie to the American people, and how he hurt our national security doing this. I want to hear Jordan or another of his lackies explain how he can be above the law, ignore having anyone to answer to. Those that won't convict will get destroyed allowing corruption to run wild, and allow Putin to have power here in this country. If they protect him they're being complicit in criminal acts, and justice will prevail holding them accountable. It's coming. Republicans are self destructing , and trumps helping them. Every day they refuse to stand up against him, many more will be voted out of office, and it shows they learned nothing from the Mid Terms results.

[Eyeball_Kid]

20. For those who defend Trumpy's crimes as "not serious enough for removal,"...

they need to be asked this: Specifically, what kinds of crimes WOULD be deserving of impeachment and removal? If trying to throw an election by using foreign sources for damaging opposition candidates, and for holding up foreign aid for personal favors DOESN'T rise to the level of removal from office, what crimes DO rise to that level?

Trumpy's defenders will turn themselves inside out in an effort to not answer that question because the know the answer and don't want to say it.

It's been said before, but if Trumpy is able to successfully avoid impeachment/removal, he'll continue to violate the Constitution and the laws. Life after acquittal would be brutal for the GOP, the party that will be held responsible for this continued plague on the nation.

[Hermit-The-Prog]

23. it goes against the core GOP beliefs ...

[Alithea]

24. It's all about winning the next presidential election

If by impeaching Trump they could be sure that Pence would take over as president and could win the next election the would, but they can’t be sure, so they will try to stay the course with Trump as long as possible.

My bet is that they try to run out the clock on holding any Senate trial, drag their feet, tie things up in court, until the election campaign and the impeachment process become fused in the minds of the voters. Then they say that the election is a referendum on Trump and far be it from them, the GOP Senators, to usurp the will of the people so, in respect for principles of democracy, they will defer to the public will. “The people put him there so, if anyone, the people must take him out.”

If Trump wins it for them, they will boot out that lame-duck president the next time he says “boo” and instal Pence. They hate Trump’s unpredictability and national security blunders.

If he loses the next election, a Senate trial is a moot point, GOP senators don’t have to have a vote on their record, and they get to tell cry like hell about how the Democrats’ antics unfairly felled Trump and they use that to rally their base in the next mid-term election and, generally, to treat the next Democrat president no better than they treated Obama.

The only solid way out of this is swaying the opinion of Trump’s base before the Senate vote. What would be needed for that? Probably nothing less than Trump in videotape demanding deposits of gold bullion in secret Swiss bank accounts in exchange for political favours, or for releasing withheld military aid, or for looking the other way in the face of gross criminal violations. All while saying that he finds middle-class and poor Americans repulsive and easy prey for him. That would break the cognitive dissonance of the base in a way that shooting someone on 5th Avenue never could.