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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsNew elevation data triple estimates of global vulnerability to sea-level rise and coastal flooding
Extensive paper with mostly very technical discussion. Highlights below.
Someone much smarter than I said it best - it's worse than we think.
Even in light of the limitations identified, this research, using a significantly improved model of coastal elevations, provides new best estimates of the vulnerability of populated low-lying areas to rising oceans at global and national scales. Reliability increases with the size of the area evaluated, and with the water level considered; thus, global assessments for end-of-century sea levels and floods, under high sea-level scenarios, should be considered most robust. Analysis reveals a developed global coastline three times more exposed to extreme coastal water levels than previously thought. Even with low carbon emissions and stable Antarctic ice sheets, leading to optimistically low future sea levels, we find that the global impacts of sea-level rise and coastal flooding this century will likely be far greater than indicated by the most pessimistic past analyses relying on SRTM. These results point to great need for the development and public release of improved terrain elevation datasets for coastal areas, for example via the high-resolution imagery and lidar point clouds increasingly collected by satellite today. There is also great need for improved population data; data on the location, height and condition of coastal-area levees and seawalls; and improved global sea-level and tidal models.
If our findings stand, coastal communities worldwide must prepare themselves for much more difficult futures than may be currently anticipated. Recent work has suggested that, even in the US, sea-level rise this century may induce large-scale migration away from unprotected coastlines, redistributing population density across the country and putting great pressure on inland areas60. It is difficult to extrapolate such projections and their impacts to more resource-constrained developing nations, though historically, large-scale migration events have posed serious challenges to political stability, driving conflict61. Further research on global-scale modeling of the timing, locations, and intensity of migratory responses to increased coastal flooding is urgently needed to minimize the potential human harm caused by such threats.
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https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-019-12808-z#
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By 2050, sea-level rise will push average annual coastal floods higher than land now home to 300 million people, according to a study published in Nature Communications. High tides could permanently rise above land occupied by over 150 million people, including 30 million in China. Without advanced coastal defense and planning, populations in these areas may face permanent flooding within 30 years.
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Whats happening in California right now blackouts, wildfires, mass evacuations should tell you everything you need to know about the urgency of the climate crisis. But the hard truth is, the flames in California are just one aspect of life on a superheated planet. Every once in a while, climate scientists publish a new study that clarifies just how dire the climate crisis really is for millions of people around the world.
One such paper was published in Nature Communications this week by scientists at Climate Central. The paper corrects what was essentially a data error in previous calculations about how many people are at risk from rising seas. The results stunned even some of the worlds top climate scientists: ...
bdamomma
(63,810 posts)catastrophe to the next generation. Climate change is not slowing down. But we can get these climate deniers bastards out. Let's do it.
redqueen
(115,103 posts)We have to make this our top priority immediately.
Guy Whitey Corngood
(26,500 posts)real Cannabis calm
(1,124 posts)MineralMan
(146,281 posts)If so, then we need to begin planning for, and preparing for that now. I suspect that will be the case, and things are going to change for the worse down the road.
We need to accurately predict the consequences of our past actions and plan accordingly. We can't just ignore it and hope to recover later. But that's what we seem to be doing.
redqueen
(115,103 posts)We can't limit it to this country, we have to actively work to help other countries modernize as well.
We also have to start preparing now for the changes ahead which we are too late to stop.
MineralMan
(146,281 posts)that we have screwed up badly and start making preparations for the consequences. Personally, I believe that the die has already been cast and the dice can't be thrown again to reverse things.
So, we need to stop making it worse and start figuring out what the consequences will be and get started immediately to find ways to compensate.
We were warned, but we didn't listen. Now, there will be a price to pay for not listening.
In 1965, thinking about the future, I decided not to reproduce. I'm glad of that now, but don't know how to fix the future.
Hermit-The-Prog
(33,309 posts)Not all refugees will be human. As climate changes, strange beasts will feel more at home in places they've never been before.
Also:
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/nov/02/climate-change-will-create-worlds-biggest-refugee-crisis