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H2O Man

(73,317 posts)
Wed Dec 11, 2019, 05:06 PM Dec 2019

The Shallow State of Donald Trump




Among the many interesting issues being discussed in today's Senate committee hearing is the strange case of Carter Page. Numerous layers of misinformation and disinformation have been piled upon his role in the Trump campaign by the administration. Some are contradictory – Trump, for example, has both claimed that Page was the victim of FBI spying on one hand, and has claimed Page was spying on the campaign for the FBI on the other hand. A rational person might correctly note that both of these cannot be true. In fact, it is possible that neither are accurate.

Older forum members may recall previous discussions here, dating back to what now seems the distant past, about Carter Page in January, 2018. Ancient forum members might even recall similar conversations on Page dating back to late 2017. Then, in February 2018, Malcolm Nance spoke about what was becoming evident regarding Carter Page. And now, like an unlucky penny, he keeps popping back up.

We know that Page has a curious history of ties with Russian intelligence that date back years before he served on the Trump campaign. In fact, it has been documented that Russian intelligence had – at very least – thought they could exploit him, and possibly turn him into serving as an asset for their use. A couple of articles in the New York Times addressed this: “Russian Spies tried to Recruit Carter Page before he Advised Trump's Campaign” (4-4-17) and What (if anything) does Carter Page Know?” (12-18-17).

As a result of Page's dealings with Russian intelligence and publicly expressing disagreements with U.S. Policy towards Russia, he became the subject of a FISA warrant. It is essential to understand that numerous U.S. Intelligence agencies beyond the FBI were interested in just who Carter Page was, and exactly what he was doing. And to fully appreciate this, one must keep in mind that Page had served in the Office of Naval Intelligence for many years, including but likely not limited to his time in the Navy. And that, of course, places him along side with not only Malcolm Nance, but such figures as Mark Felt and Bob Woodward. Prehistoric forum members will recall interesting discussions on the topic of the last two from the Bush-Cheney era.

Now, let's consider the timing of Page's serving in the Trump campaign. Trump announced that Page was a foreign policy adviser in March, 2016. That, of course, was the very same month that Paul Manafort officially joined the campaign. Manafort has proven incapable of telling the truth, of course, but there is ample evidence that one or more of his connections with the Russian-Ukraine mob had assured him that Page was a solid resource.

For three months, Page reported to Corey Lewandowski, who was running the Trump campaign. Poor Corey was fired in June, and replaced with Paul Manafort. Readers may recall that in June of 2016, Manafort met with some friendly Russians in Donald, Jr's office, to hear how the Russian government could help Trump win the election. Page would travel to Russia and meet with a Russian operative during his time on the Trump campaign, before officially leaving the campaign in September.

At the same time the Trump administration has noted the FBI was spying on Page after he left the campaign, they have also stressed that Page actually had no role in the campaign. They say he never met Trump, which removed the possibility that Page was another mere coffee boy. And, as noted, Trump has claimed that Page was a deep state operative sent to spy on the campaign, which is very curious indeed, since Page did not approach the Trump campaign – they approached him.

At the time Page was associated with the Trump campaign, the U.S. Intelligence community was conducting a counter-intelligence investigation of Russian attempts to influence the 2016 presidential election. It seems likely that this would include using someone connected to the IC who had cover – known in intelligence as a “legend” – that creates the impression that the IC does not trust them. Thus, in Page's case, it would seem to the Russians that he might be trusted. This is one type of a “double-agent.”

Due to the nature of today's technology, that can include having one or more FISA warrants on record, to indicate to invasive computer examinations to believe Page was not an IC operative. This would allow him to be involved in the counter-intelligence operations geared towards investigating the Russians' penetration of the 2016 campaign. And it would be likely that not every domestic IC member would know if a man like Carter Page was an ONI officer working under cover.

Lindsey Graham has enough organic intelligence to understand this. And his character is certainly low enough to try to exploit this, since he is fully aware that no individual from any intelligence agency could speak publicly to the issues. Indeed, that's what we've seen Graham doing today.
9 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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The Shallow State of Donald Trump (Original Post) H2O Man Dec 2019 OP
I don't have a very good grasp on this issue coeur_de_lion Dec 2019 #1
Graham & Co H2O Man Dec 2019 #2
Interesting, very interesting. malthaussen Dec 2019 #3
At the time, H2O Man Dec 2019 #4
Since Mr Page continued working there, however... malthaussen Dec 2019 #5
One of the curious things H2O Man Dec 2019 #6
Whatever the putative operation was... malthaussen Dec 2019 #7
Carter Page has poor facial expressions... MartyTheGreek Dec 2019 #8
He is a strange one. H2O Man Dec 2019 #9

coeur_de_lion

(3,663 posts)
1. I don't have a very good grasp on this issue
Wed Dec 11, 2019, 08:39 PM
Dec 2019

even with your explanation. Carter Page is a double agent, Lindsay Graham knows it and rather than come out and say the truth, he is exploiting, twisting facts to further misdirect the GOP base? That about right?


Everybody is watching the impeachment right now. Even my husband is watching. I poked my head in and that cornpone GOP rep Collins was nattering on and on about how he didn't like the Democrats methods or something. Not enough hearings. Because he loves to hear himself talk probably.

Mirror mirror on the wall, what will happen in these impeachment hearings?

H2O Man

(73,317 posts)
2. Graham & Co
Wed Dec 11, 2019, 10:14 PM
Dec 2019

know that the Democrats can't openly discussed counterintelligence issues in open meetings. They know that no one can explain publicly why the FBI attorney altered a letter. And they are trying to exploit that for cheap advantage.

malthaussen

(17,066 posts)
3. Interesting, very interesting.
Thu Dec 12, 2019, 12:05 PM
Dec 2019

A fun little speculation. So, if Carter Page was investigating certain individuals involved with Russia, and if he somehow found himself a part of Mr Trump's campaign, what might that tell us about Mr Trump's connections to Russia? It would seem suboptimal for a mole to waste six months working in the Trump campaign if he thought there was no "there" there.

Another nice thing about a FISA warrant: not only would it lend credibility to a double, as you indicate, but it also provides a perfectly legal and deniable way to keep tabs on anybody of interest with whom that double associates. Due to the murky laws surrounding domestic surveillance in the US, one can not spy on a citizen without proper authorization; but if that citizen is in a convo with someone for whom you do have authorization, then you may listen as much as you please, and all is in order.

But that would mean that the Trump Administration is telling the truth, probably by accident: the FBI were spying on the campaign. That's a very risky confession in this day when "investigation" means "guilt," hence the GOP position that the spying was politically motivated and not a matter of National Security.

But there are "On the Other Hand" possibilities: the Plumbers, after all, used operatives with links to the CIA in purely domestic political spying, and used the same tired "National Security" excuse to justify defying court orders to release information. In the world of fantasy, who's to say that the Obama Administration didn't use professional intelligence operatives in just the same way?

-- Mal

H2O Man

(73,317 posts)
4. At the time,
Thu Dec 12, 2019, 12:15 PM
Dec 2019

I would speculate that it is most likely the ONI was conducting a counter-intelligence investigation of the Russian mob/ intelligence. There is nothing to suggest that Page was involved in investigating the campaign itself, with the possible exception of Manafort. But for half his time with the campaign, Page was reporting directly to Corey Lewandowski, not Mamafort. So at least for the first three months, it seems Page's most important role -- for the campaign or for the ONI -- would be monitoring the Russian outreach.

Just my opinion, of course.

malthaussen

(17,066 posts)
5. Since Mr Page continued working there, however...
Thu Dec 12, 2019, 12:29 PM
Dec 2019

... one might speculate that, whatever attracted him to the Trump campaign, it was still there after Mr Lewandowski left. Which would suggest an ongoing pipeline of person/persons only partially known were up to their eyebrows in Russian money. And that the Russians would expect value in return for the investment.

I'd love to read the novel sometime, but alas Robert Ludlum is dead.

-- Mal

H2O Man

(73,317 posts)
6. One of the curious things
Thu Dec 12, 2019, 12:36 PM
Dec 2019

is that even after Manafort "officially" left the campaign, he continued to be in very close contact with it, and then the transition team. I'd think that the numerous contacts between Russians and the campaign were of great interest. And, of course, one might speculate that General Flynn has gotten off as easy as he has, because he had information of value to the counter-intelligence aspect of the larger investigation.

malthaussen

(17,066 posts)
7. Whatever the putative operation was...
Thu Dec 12, 2019, 01:30 PM
Dec 2019

... it didn't keep the twit from being elected, which is arguably the most damaging thing that has happened to US National Security since, oh, Pearl Harbor. And damaging to the intel community, too.

-- Mal

MartyTheGreek

(562 posts)
8. Carter Page has poor facial expressions...
Thu Dec 12, 2019, 04:06 PM
Dec 2019

Check the Ari Melber interview yesterday. The first time I saw him, I thought I could not trust this guy. I got kicked off jury duty one time for saying that!

I never claimed to be a body language expert, but something is just not right. Wasn't he heard during one of his earlier presentations to russian oligarchs, talking down America? I need to find that and highlight that. KGOP is making him out to be their man on the one hand.

Thank You! I didn't know this chump of a Naval officer, was so involved.

H2O Man

(73,317 posts)
9. He is a strange one.
Thu Dec 12, 2019, 05:18 PM
Dec 2019

I remember the first time I saw him interviewed, wondering what manner of man he was? It was obvious that he was uncomfortable and evasive. Certainly not honest. (I'm no expert, either, but have learned a bit from working in forensic mental health, plus having two uncles who were legendary investigators who taught me more than I learned in any classroom.)

More, Malcolm Nance's impression of Page over time fascinated me. Mr. Nance is an impressive individual. He reminds me a heck of a lot moreof the image I had of ONI growing up (again, family) than Page.

I don't believe that Page could pass a polygraph, as many are trained to do. Strange man.

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