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Thu Dec 19, 2019, 01:17 PM

Impeachment Polls are Flawed trump friendly, need a tertium quid

Binary impeachment polls are flawed and undercut support for impeachment. A binary poll proffers only 2 options: 1) Impeach & remove, or, 2) Do not Impeach. Neither of these options is WHAT WILL HAPPEN or would have happened when the binary polls were conducted, which is 3) Impeach but do not remove.
The house has now impeached trump, but a mortal lock the senate will acquit. Pollsters should be fired or demoted for not including the 3rd option (tertium quid = 3rd thing) and presenting only binary polls. Imagine a push poll asking 1) do you support banning all guns? or, 2) not banning all guns? crass misreprentation without option 3) = ban assault rifles.

To a republican respondent, binary polls ask either 1) remove trump, or, 2) let trump stay in office. This is why binary polls show repub support for 'no impeachment' at 95%, misleading since they don't want to remove their sacred cow.
The fox news poll ~dec 15, 2019 (& previous similar fox results) with the 3rd option included, had 50 - 4 - 41 result, for a 54% impeach 41% no impeach result. Repubs split off about 10% (4 pct pts) from the 95% standard support, to vote 'impeach but do not remove' - allowing conscientious repubs a way to 'punish' trump for what they thought was wrong, without removing him.
It is moot now after actual impeachment, since subsequent polls will only ask 'should trump be removed' by senate.

PREVIOUS BINARY IMPEACHMENT POLLS SHOULD BE VIEWED AS FLAWED and 'trump friendly'.'

'No opinion' results should not necessarily be ignored. No opinion is subcategorized as 1) don't know 2) don't care 3) undecided. Amish are 'don't know' since they do not follow politics (much). Consider though 'don't care' results. If they were asked 'should trump be impeached' and answer is 'don't care' that does not help trump at all. Doesn't help schiff either but hurts trump more.
No opinion results could be added on to both sides, caveated as 'do not oppose impeachment' and 'do not support impeachment'.

Oxford dictionary: tertium quid A third thing that is indefinite and undefined but is related to two definite or known things.

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Reply Impeachment Polls are Flawed trump friendly, need a tertium quid (Original post)
jimmy the one Dec 2019 OP
wryter2000 Dec 2019 #1

Response to jimmy the one (Original post)

Thu Dec 19, 2019, 01:39 PM

1. K&R for visibility

Good analysis. Thanks

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