Thoughts on the Iran crises from a peace activist
In the midst of a political crisis and the impeachment soap opera, we have the Iran crisis.
I agree that this situation is very serious. In my honest opinion, the trouble is that what we don't know. What we do know is the Trump administration is hopelessly corrupt, disorganized and irrational. We have no reason to trust anything that the administration says.
For this reason, it is essential that we listen carefully to the democratic congress after they have been briefed. If they come away unsatisfied (we will need to judge carefully who is reliable in this regard) then we have a very serious problem.
It seems to me that the administration is making up for past failures. They did not respond to the Iranian attack of the Saudi oil fields along with attacks on US bases in Iraq. Trump was presented with the assignation of Gen. Qasem Soleimani as a way to save face. He took it.
This is only a working hypothesis but we have no reason to discount it nor do we have reason to accept the administration's claims of an imminent attack.
We are in crises and yes, war may result. I personally view it as less likely. Most likely the Iranians will respond with a terrorist attack on US interests and the administration will respond in kind. This situation will await a wiser and more measured leader which we have to elect in 2020.
The question is how far, and for how long.
I think it's highly likely Iran will retaliate in some manner. If they do, Trump will escalate. Even if they don't, Trump may strike again. He wants to provoke Iran into doing something that will incite American thirst for revenge.