Everything Ain't Swell

[H2O Man]

Reports today are confirming what was hinted at last night on the news: both Iraqi and US forces had been given two days' notice before the missile attack. Why was this, and what does it mean in the days to come? There are benefits accrued from stepping outside of the frame to get an accurate and objective view of a picture, and I'd suggest that this is the case today.

Last night, both on this forum and in other communications, I said that I did not think things were as bad as they appeared to be – although they did seem terrible, and there was a very negative potential. The greatest danger, in my opinion, was that Donald Trump's mushroom would cloud reality. But I noted that sane people, including some from the US, though more from other nations, were stepping up to prevent Trump from igniting the Middle East.

One such man would be the now “retired” British diplomat William Patey. He is the type of person that we should be listening closely to. I'm not sure how many people remember him from his service in Afghanistan during 2010 to 2012, when he coordinated his efforts with the Obama administration.

Patey has many years of experience in the Middle East, starting back in the late 1970s. He served in Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and Sudan. He advocated for democratic evolution, rather than violent revolution. And even in retirement, he has kept up to date on issues involving the US and Iran.

Thus, he knows that before the recent events in Iraq that have resulted in escalating tensions, there was actually progress being made – indirectly – at bringing the world community back to the negotiating table to resolve the issues involving the US and Iran. Moderate voices within Iran had been gaining some degree of power, and were expressing willingness to talk about more than the nuclear deal. There was a very real potential for negotiations to include the much larger problems with violence in other Middle Eastern countries.

While I do not know this for sure, I will speculate that NATO countries were most likely not sharing daily updates with this progress with Donald Trump. Hence, it is possible, even very likely, that Trump was clueless about what he was actually damaging. Admittedly, I could be wrong, but this would seem consistent with Trump's overall ignorance, and our allies' contempt for him.

By assassinating General Soleimani, Trump upset the balance that men and women like Patey were advancing. There is no question that this action resulted – at least temporarily – in the more conservative Iranian leaders gaining more influence inside their country. It was immediately obvious that Iranians would demand a military response to Soleimani's death.

By way of sane people – thus, unknown to Trump, although some in the US were aware – a negotiated Iranian response was agreed upon. The Iraqi militias with ties to Iran actually warned the Iraqi military in advance, and their military was among those who warned the US military: missiles would fly, and do some damage. But no US or Iraqi people would be killed. And that is exactly what happened last night.

Ambassador Patey has noted that this has altered the dynamic, both in the Middle East and the rest of the world. Though the missile attack was not what it had first appeared to be, it does allow the conservative Iranian leadership to convince their people that they not only hit back hard, but that they struck the last blow. More, events further cemented the view of US allies that Trump is dangerously imbalanced, and poses a severe threat to any prospects for peace in the Middle East.

Indeed, Patey has said that all in all, Iran came out ahead in recent events. Meanwhile, America's reel life Zippy the Pinhead has re-focused his rage back to President Obama. I think it's possible that Trump will text that US intelligence is investigating if Obama was born in Iran. And I'm sure he will demand a Nobel Peace Prize for the mess he has made.

Peace,
H2O Man

[coeur_de_lion]

1. Last night

I cried myself to sleep, believing that we were at war with Iran and American military personnel had been killed.

I was very relieved to learn there were no casualties.

But things have taken a turn for the worse with the impeachment process and it very much looks right now, we can only get rid of him in the election.

Unless he fucks up even more between now and then.

Feel free to talk me out of this negative mindset around impeachment.

[H2O Man]

6. Wait a minute!

I checked our conversation from last night. Remember me saying that, "Everything will be okay. Then worse. Then better." How did this positive message fail to pull you out of this negative mindset?

Everything did turn out okay last night. Not good, but not even close to how bad it might have turned out.

Things will again look darker when we are about to enter the impeachment trial in the Senate. And it might end up significantly worse, if witnesses are not called. (Despite some good people's concerns that Bolton would try to help Trump, if he does testify, he will kneecap the president. What Trump has done is not the method Bolton prefers for regime change in Iran. Complicated topic, that I will clarify soon.)

And things will get better. Come election season, we'll see them getting better all the time. Paul was right on that.

[coeur_de_lion]

9. Well the other part of our conversation

was that for the first time in 16 years we disagree. About Bolton. I don't think he will testify and if he does it will not be favorable to us.

If he testifies to the House I will be surprised, even more surprised if he kneecaps trump.

If he testifies before the senate he will let them lead him with their questioning to side step trump crimes, if he doesn't totally exonerate him.

The first part of our convo was helpful "Everything will be okay." is great. But then I was reading twitter and reports were that there were casualties.

I think like Lunatica's post below, I already have PTSD.

I get my hopes up and then they are dashed over and over.

[H2O Man]

43. I'm not sure

that we actually disagree. We evaluate certain features of this situation differently. We agree fully on the facts, which is very important. But there's also the personalities involved. We share the same contempt for people such as Trump and Bolton. We do not mistakenly believe that either is a man of stature or honor. The only area we differ at all is on motivation in regard to this moment in the time of the nation.

I was glad to see Maya Wiley on MSNBC last night. She is an insightful person. She said that the House should subpoena Bolton immediately, and make his testimony public. She doesn't believe he would try to cover for Trump. And, in my opinion, it's not because anything "good" can be attributed to Bolton.No. It is because, despite a shared hatred of Iran, the two currently have different motivations.

[malthaussen]

51. Mr Bolton is a problemetic subject for me

My contempt for him knows few bounds, so my knee-jerk reaction to his possible "testimony" is that we don't need it and can't trust it. But then, I have already come to a decision about the impeachment of Donald Trump (not that it matters). I suppose there are people who would be interested in Mr Bolton's take on things, or even influenced by it. Given that distasteful reality, the question becomes what that take is likely to be, and if it will be of service to the country.

Whatever it is, it will be filtered, sanitized, and slanted to make Mr Bolton look like a hero. I suppose we could live with such ego-stroking if it were of benefit to the Republic. I'd expect him to add to the mountain of evidence that Donald Trump is a nincompoop, and a dangerous one at that. It is frustrating to me that such additional "evidence" is somehow needed to convince people that Mr Trump should go.

But I agree, he's not going to fall on any swords for Donald Trump, and is probably salivating at the opportunity to stick it to him as long as he can do so in a way that preserves his own "credibility." Again, I don't need such an exercise in rhetoric, but perhaps there are those who do.

-- Mal

[H2O Man]

53. Bolton is a

terrible human being, who can never be trusted with power. That's the nicest thing I can say about him, and I'm glad to get it out of the way.

Might Bolton grandstand if he testifies? Of course. This is a man who believes that the American people would be overwhelmed by his brilliance, if only they could hear him explain everything he believes in.But, what is important enough to allow for this is that he met numerous times with Trump, discussed the Ukraine aid, had Pompeo and Esper back him up (I know Pompeo has no spine), and is already locked in to his discussions with Fiona Hill. For these reasons, he needs to testify.

His motivation, exactly as you note, is to be a hero. That would be difficult for the Trump cult to digest. And I do not see Democrats carrying him out of the room on their shoulders. Thus, a fair question is what audience might drool over him?

I'd suggest that we look at a couple of his kindred neoconservatives who are outspoken about Trump. Two that come to mind are William Kristol and David Frum. While I don't "like" either of them, I recognize that both are intelligent and capable in their defining Trump as unacceptable as president. Frum's book on this is actually a very good read. Both like Bolton.

Another motivating factor is that Bolton is writing his book about serving in the Trump administration. We learned of this at about the same time as Bolton said he quit, and Trump said he was fired. It was, of course, near the time that the Ukraine scandal was exposed publicly. It would seem fair to say that Bolton isn't hoping to pen a est-seller saying that Trump is a great president, with perfected wisdom, and only noble anti-corruption motivation in regard to Ukraine.

[coeur_de_lion]

14. Also this is how I feel now that we know

Iran did not mean to take American lives last night.

I would be cautious about saying Iranian revenge is over. Not that you are saying that but many people are.
I think they were just fucking with us.

I think we need to prepare ourselves for the kind of attacks that are unexpected, and show up where you least expect.

I wish they would just target trump properties but we can't count on that.

[H2O Man]

15. Keep in mind

that there are numerous militias and, for that matter, individuals in the Middle East who may act out violently. So I would doubt that the violence has ended, as it relates to this chapter of the on-going conflicts between the US and Iran.

[kentuck]

2. Who gave him the list of options?

And who put Suleimani assassination on the list?

I think there should be Congressional hearings.

[WhiteTara]

8. I read it was Pompous Pompeo

[H2O Man]

17. Agreed.

[gab13by13]

27. Pompeo convinced Trump,

Pompeo has wanted to kill Soleimani for a very long time. I think Pompeo is trying to bring about the Rapture.

[WhiteTara]

28. Me too. He's so dangerous, he needs to be

locked up.

[H2O Man]

37. Great point!

Thank you, gab13by13! That is such an important factor. And it is essential for understanding the motivation of all involved. The religious belief systems of "leaders" -- including those elected or appointed to an office -- can be very dangerous. And we are witnessing several right-wing Christians and Trump playing off each other.

I remember many year ago, when I was doing community-based crisis intervention for the clinic, talking to my father one weekend. "Be careful of anyone who thinks they are doing God's plan," he said, "especially people who believe they are in direct communication with God." I ran into more than a few, but none were dangerous. It's the ones like Pompeo, who thinks he is channeling power, that are dangerous.

[bdamomma]

41. I posted this thread

you are correct

https://www.democraticunderground.com/100212847249

[MineralMan]

64. I suspect the idea was sold to Trump by telling him

that he would be praised, like Obama was, for killing a "terrorist." The problem was that nobody knew who Soleimani was, unlike with Osama bin Laden. Trump didn't get that praise he was looking for, and the Iranians probably pissed him off even further with their deliberate "kill nobody" missile attack.

At this point, Donald Trump is being used as little more than a tool by others. He is no longer in control, I think.

[H2O Man]

16. I think that

our friend WhiteTara is correct. But I am not sure that it was Pompeo.

That would make sense, because Pompeo is a necroconservative who, despite having served in the military, has no grasp of what warfare involves. More, he tends to be invested in weird conspiracy theories and flights of fantasy. That would include what I call the Geronimo Syndrome -- the belief that one figure is an evil master fully responsible for all that is awful. Which isn't to suggest that Suleimani wasn't involved in the deaths and injuries of American military members, or an important figure. But killing him has not made the world a safer place.

[Kurt V.]

22. that comes from the joint chiefs i suppose. which comes from their various staffs.

[Girard442]

3. Problem is, life isn't a chess game.

The crash of the Ukranian airliner was one of those wildly unpredictable things that could upset everyone's plans to restore stability. I have no particular reason to believe the plane was shot down, but do you doubt that there are lots of people in Iran and elsewhere who think it was? Iranian, Iraqi, and American leaders are going to have to deal with that. Wisely and well would be nice, but seriously?

[H2O Man]

20. There is the old

saying that it is easier to start a war than stop one. That is unfortunately true. And there are many, many things -- including those no sane person can anticipate -- that could spark greater violence. The incident with the airliner, as you note, could be one.

Malcolm X used to describe tense situations such as this as a powder keg. You can hold matches to the keg, and nothing happens. Instead, it's that little wick that can be ignited by a spark that causes the powder keg to blow up.

[lunatica]

4. Impeachment didn't go away. What will Trump do next?

Our sigh of relief could be short lived.

Trump and the US are like a bad marriage made in hell. Having experienced such a marriage the sadistic narcissism does NOT go away. All the so called regret and promises last only as long as the very next time. The best way I can describe the permanent outcome of such relationships is PTSD.

It may not be evident but that is what Americans are suffering from right now. Our allies too.

[coeur_de_lion]

7. so true

Even after he is gone we will need time to recover from the daily avalanche of BS and fear. The whole country will have PTSD.

I keep thinking, and H20 may or may not disagree with me, but I keep thinking that he cannot stop f-ing up. He is desperate and he is drugged up on adderall and he will keep flailing around with dumbass moves until we get him out with an election. He does not know how to be calm and deal with his situation rationally.

Senate will not allow witnesses, and we will have to wait until we elect someone else.

But meanwhile it will be a constant sh** show. And by the end of it we will all need years of therapy.

Good thing H20 is a good therapist.

[lunatica]

10. There is the outside chance that he'll quit in

Self pitying snit, blaming Obama and Hillary, of course. It’s possible the reason he hasn’t quit yet is only because the courts are going to go after him. He no longer feels it’s fun anymore. You can tell by how bad he looks. He looks haggard, slumped and exhausted.

[eggplant]

11. I think it is more likely that he'll drop dead rather than quit.

And if it happens before a senate trial concludes, then all bets are off. Would the house go after Pence next? I hope so, but it would be seen to be rather tasteless.

I expect that no matter how bizarre anyone's prediction is over the future, reality will be even weirder.

[bdamomma]

42. talking

about dropping dead, I wish Mitch would meet that fate.

[coeur_de_lion]

12. I say it is 50/50

50 he will quit 50 he will start world war 3.

He thrives on chaos.

I keep wondering what was really behind the move to Florida. Maybe something to do with his future legal situation.

[Maeve]

19. "He thrives on chaos"--like the bug in Men in Black

And about as nice a creature...

[PatrickforO]

63. Zed, we have a BUG!

Imagine a giant cockroach, with unlimited strength, a massive inferiority complex, and a real short temper, is tear-assing around Manhattan island in a brand new Edgar suit.

A truly great movie!

[dhol82]

21. I'm going with the fact that he was able to get the tax law changed so that

essentially blue states could not get their real estate taxes deductible from their federal taxes.
That has severely damaged the New York housing market and now dump can not deduct his taxes.
In addition, Florida has a homestead act that keeps your house and possessions not accessible in bankruptcy.
The fucker is looking ahead. Or, at least his children are.

[malaise]

18. Not ruling this out

He destroys and then runs

[H2O Man]

24. Very well said.

I thank you for that. And I agree.

I'm not sure how the impeachment trial will play out in the Senate. It would be foolish of me to think that the republicans care about truth, justice, the rule of law, or even the Constitution. They do not.

But I do trust that the American people will vote in November, removing Trump or Pence from the White House. If we work hard and avoid the stumbling block of division (see DU:GDPrimaries), we will not only keep the House and take the White House -- we'll take the Senate.

And then healing and repair can start.

[pecosbob]

45. The Senate is key

[Wellstone ruled]

5. Understand Rudy of ill fame

was also at Mar My Pigo when this decision came down. Something I just read,Rudy and Joe Lieberman are Lobbyist for the MEK (the old Shaw's Family)and has been advocating the hit on Sulumani. Never quits with the Shaw and his families forty years of revenge. So this is why Lieberman and Rudy took that last trip to Albania.

[dhol82]

23. Interesting. Was wondering why old Joe just showed up on Chris Matthews.

Kinda surprised he popped up all of a sudden.
Frankly, thought he had died a while ago.

[WhiteTara]

29. he was on Ari Melber's show too.

[dhol82]

30. Oops. My bad.

I was obviously not paying attention. Just saw his pathetic face and tuned out.

[WhiteTara]

36. I was so nauseated by his

ugly face, I turned it off. The only good thing about Gore's defeat was the fact Lying Joe wasn't on our tv all the time.

[H2O Man]

25. Lieberman is one

of the most toxic of neoconservatives. Had Al Gore picked a different vp candidate, the 2000 election wouldn't have been close enough for the republicans to steal. Lieberman's attacks on President Clinton in the two years prior to the election made it impossible for Clinton to campaign in the manner he was capable of.

Lieberman's ilk are certainly one of the factions -- some in the US, others elsewhere -- that would consider the return of the Shah's base to be a wet dream come true.

[Wellstone ruled]

33. The Shah and his family

are mega Rethug donors. Seems like the Euro version of the will from time to time run stories about the Shah and his family attempting to mess with the Iranian Government.

[H2O Man]

39. The Shah bought

lots of influence in the US and some other countries. He was in a position that allowed him to do that. And I'm sure that even after his death, his relatives and associates have engaged in that exact behavior. For these are people who believe -- or desperately want to believe -- in "royalty." And that is a sickness, one that infects the larger society in negative ways.

By no coincidence, the president is convinced that the Trumps are a royal family. He wants everyone else to pretend that this is true. The pathetic thing is, there are plenty of republicans willing to share in this delusion. They are acting out their roles.

[dhol82]

32. Do you mean the Shah as opposed to Shaw?

Just curious.

[Wellstone ruled]

35. Yes I do.

[Toorich]

13. Maybe the Norwegians ....

.... could do us a favor. Go ahead and tell the tangerine turd they'll
award him the peace prize - if he resigns for health reasons now.

[Kurt V.]

26. Germany is moving its troops outside central Iraq. (120 troops)

[dhol82]

31. Probably a good choice.

[MartyTheGreek]

34. When SecDev said no bombing of World Heritage Sites...

...that changed the calculus. I have a feeling that the brass finally said STFU we not doing that to T and his staff!

The desperation is so obvious! I predict that he had no idea what 52 meant! Where did he pick that shit up? Will someone please do their homework!

42% approved of the strike. That's not 50, but the bible thumpers will take it as prophesy. Time for Bolton to spill the beans!

[H2O Man]

38. I agree 100%.

Those who have been in the military frequently have a very different view of war than stuffed shirts in plush offices. And they often have a much deeper appreciation of what a pledge to uphold the Constitution means than Trump, his parasites in the administration, or the rats in the Congress.

[dhol82]

40. 52 is the number of hostages that the Iranians took in 1979

Dumb Donnie picked that as his magic number.

[MartyTheGreek]

47. I think his Wing Nuts picked 52. n/t

[dhol82]

61. Well, the idiot in chief would certainly have no clue about that incident

[Kid Berwyn]

44. Lama llama ding dong

Great OP, H2O Man! As Amb. Patey and astute observers have noted, Iran and a whole lotta nations have saved the planet by preventing Trump’s actions spinning off to WW III.



My take is Trump “terminated” a human being to divert public and official attention from his impeachment. The long term consequences? Not his problem.

[H2O Man]

48. Virtual reality

isn't what it used to be.

My face hurts from laughing so damned hard! Thanks you so much!

[pecosbob]

46. Bottom line when the dust clears I now see Iran gaining respect on the world stage (a good thing)

and the U.S. losing respect (a bad thing, except that it lays bare the neo-cons' bankrupt policies for all to deride).

Where do we go from here...yo no lo se.

I do know that we need to GOTV like never before in this nation.

[H2O Man]

49. Absolutely!

A friend of mine noted earlier in the week that Trump didn't respond with bombs when Otto Warmbier was killed by the president's buddy in North Korea. But he responded to the neoconservative agenda in a manner he believed would benefit him politically. In doing so, he empowered the conservative religious leaders in Iran, and certainly damaged the moderate effort to improve relations between Iran and the US.

This is merely speculation on my part, but we do know that Trump chatted with Putin before assassinating the Iranian general ....which makes me suspect that Putin, at the very least, did not warn Trump that this would backfire against the US on the world stage. I'm thinking Putin might have encouraged him, finding it hard to believe Trump was this stupid. Or that some sane people in DC wouldn't talk him out of this.

While I still have hopes for the Senate's impeachment trial, I agree totally that we need to get out the vote in November.

[pecosbob]

60. I think Putin has three things on his mind and all of them have to do with oil and gas

1) Selling his arctic reserves on the open market.
2) Establishing additional natural gas pipelines to Europe, through the Middle East and through a Kremlin-controlled Ukraine.
3) Destabilizing anyone and everyone who stands in his way, specifically the U.S. and the Western democracies.

[Dukkha]

50. Who would've thought Iran would be the adult in the room

Showing restraint and calculated measured steps. It seems they are not willing to throw their country and global stability under the bus for one man's fragile ego.

[H2O Man]

54. Right.

I think that part of this relates to how different cultures understand "time." Trump experiences impatience, and demands immediate gratification for his every mood. That is always a risky combination. And although Iran is "modern," it appears to me that their understanding of time is more like that which I was exposed to at Onondaga and other traditional territories. They have the patience to delay gratification, and understand the dangers of knee-jerk reactions.

[coeur_de_lion]

52. Question

A day or two ago McConnell said he had the votes to proceed with impeachment trial without democratic members of senate.

Today he says well if Nancy doesn’t send articles we will proceed with other matters like the trade deal.

Does that mean he doesn’t have the votes?

If so fabulous news!

[H2O Man]

56. Good question.

I can only speculate at this time, as I do not know for certain. But I keep in mind that what Mitch says publicly is not always what he is saying behind closed doors. That's a common feature in both politics and in our justice system. Before any big criminal trial, we see that a defense attorney -- if they speak publicly -- will always say the prosecutor's case is weak, and their defense is very strong. Bluffing is part of our system of government.

Add to that the response of some republicans to the administration's briefing on the assassination of the Iranian general. Two republican Senators told journalists that is was an outrage. Few were able to ask questions about the paper-thin case the administration made. They were instructed to not question or debate the topic, either in the Senate or publicly.

Senator Flimsey Graham then publicly scolded the two, which resulted in Rand Paul publicly spanking Graham for his ignorance of the Constitution''s history, as it defines the Senate's role. Thus, one might ask, are there Senators with enough spine to act upon the role of the Senate in an impeachment trial, as defined in the Constitution and the two previous cases?

[coeur_de_lion]

59. I believe if he had the votes

The Impeachment trial would be taking place. Or it would be in motion to take place.

Only thing that has given me comfort past couple days is the realization that he probably does not have the votes.

We may still be able to impeach the MF.

[spanone]

55. K&R...⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️

Everything ain't swell, especially djt.

[H2O Man]

57. Thanks!

We really have to kick the shit out of the republican party in November.

[spanone]

58. Amen Brother.

[burrowowl]

62. Amen, Amen!

[randr]

65. I swear I saw a post about Faux news reporting bombers taking off just before the hit on the plane

Did I see this post here? Can anyone confirm reporting by Faux that night? Do people in Iran/Iraq get news broadcasts in the same time as we do?