BTRTN: Forget "Wag the Dog." "Fail Safe" is the Telling Movie Parable for Trump's Iran Gamble
Born To Run The Numbers thinks that the pundits who invoke "Wag The Dog" to criticize Trump's decision to assassinate Soleimani are worried about the wrong movie. 1964's nuclear terror "Fail Safe" provides the more terrifying analogy:
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2020/01/btrtn-forget-wag-dog-fail-safe-is.html
Excerpts: "Donald Trump threw the Middle East and, by extension, the world, into an incredibly dangerous moment when for 72 hours, the stability of the region and the world became the responsibility of a rogue, economically-ostracized state that sponsors terrorism. He created the circumstances in which the fate of the Middle East was contingent on Iran being the grown-up in the room.
"Ordering the assassination of Soleimani was the equivalent of the sending bombers toward Moscow in 'Fail Safe.' Once the bombers were en route, the ability to calmly manage a chaotic, rapidly unfolding, unpredictable situation is radically reduced. Intentionally triggering such chaos dramatically increases the likelihood of misinterpretation, mistrust, and pre-emptive aggression...
"My second point: the long-term implications of this action are far from understood...Here are the likely bets
1)Tehran will race to build nuclear bombs, (2) Iran will will now be united in its hatred of the United States, (3) the murder of Soleimani will only embolden Iran to continue his legacy of proxy wars and state-sponsored terrorism. Hey, we can hope I am wrong. Maybe Iranians will see a whole different way to retaliate. Maybe instead of overtly fighting Trump, they will realize how easily he can be manipulated into serving their goals, and follow the model of Kim Jong-un… who has been sucking up to Trump for television cameras as he buys time to fully ramp up a world-class nuclear weapons arsenal. Maybe Iran will contact Trump and offer to help him by interfering on his behalf in the 2020 elections. Iranians may realize – like Putin before them – that it is far easier to get what you want out of Trump if you’ve got kompromat on him..."
