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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsCoronavirus claims 15 more lives in China; first two cases reported in Europe
Last edited Fri Jan 24, 2020, 07:53 PM - Edit history (1)
BEIJING France confirmed two cases of coronavirus Friday, marking the first confirmed diagnoses in Europe, as China expanded its efforts to control its outbreak and announced 15 new deaths. A second case of coronavirus was also confirmed Friday in the United States.
There are more than 1,000 confirmed cases of infection, and at least 41 people have died. A total of 8,420 people are reported to be under observation.
A young, previously healthy man died in Wuhan, raising concerns about the deadliness of the virus. Until now, the vast majority of victims have been older than 60 with preexisting conditions.
More at link- https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/coronavirus-china-live-updates/2020/01/24/4e678f9c-3e03-11ea-afe2-090eb37b60b1_story.html
Edit to add: France has just revised confirmed cases to 3 from 2.
at140
(6,110 posts)age, sickness and accidents.
Quackers
(2,256 posts)at140
(6,110 posts)works out to 0.02% by the virus, 99.8% from other causes.
Quackers
(2,256 posts)Its not about the actual number. Its about the infectivity and fatality rates of a new virus.
former9thward
(32,006 posts)There are 41 deaths in one month. About 1,650,000 died in China during that period of various causes. The death rate from the virus is running 3-4%. Not high at all considering most are post 60 with other conditions.
Quackers
(2,256 posts)A virus that went from patient zero to 41 deaths, multiple international infections, 800 confirmed cases in Wuhan, and over 8,000 under observation for suspected virus infection in one month is not nothing. In regards to the fatality rate, the woman that is actually tasked with calculating it even said there isnt enough data points yet and to expect the estimate to fluctuate a lot.
at140
(6,110 posts)From 0 cases before flu season begins, there are millions infected by end of flu season.
And many thousands of those sick with ordinary flu die.
I am not trying to minimize the new virus. All I am trying to do is to not start a panic.
Anyone remember the EBOLA virus? It was a huge panic at one time. Don't hear much anymore.
Viruses have capability of mutating. This is why the flu shot we get is never 100%.
New virus strains will come and go all the time.
At the end of day, best plan of action is to keep your own body resistance in good shape.
Which means good nutrition and enough sleep. And wash hands as frequently as possible.
NickB79
(19,243 posts)But we (rightly) point out how we need to increase our efforts to tackle measles as a public health risk.
41 people dead out of several thousand infected puts this virus several orders of magnitude more dangerous than measles.
at140
(6,110 posts)More people die by orders of magnitude from gun violence, fatal car crashes, smoking, excessive drinking, drug overdoses, opioid addiction etc which are all man made causes. We should be focused on those deaths, a lot of which are avoidable and not get bent out of shape by 1 or 2 persons in United States got infected by contact with infected people in China. We have limited resources, national spending is Trillion dollars more than national income, so focus our resources on the bigger problems.
herding cats
(19,564 posts)Currently the the official numbers is just over 1,000 infected and 41 people have died. That's what we have to work with, but it's an evolving situation and will change.
Of course, the actual number of infections are assumed to be closer to 6,000, but as of now we don't have the data to prove that, yet. The point is, it's a new virus with few statistics and actual knowledge about it out there yet. But, the ratio of infected to mortality is the point. It has zero to do with natural causes deaths. Zero. Nada. Zip.
This is like saying, don't get your flu shot, because people die everyday. Science is our friend.
Massacure
(7,522 posts)I posted this in another thread, a pathogen's basic reproduction number is on average the number of susceptible people a pathogen will be passed on to by each infected person over the course of a pandemic. The H1N1 flu in 2009 had a basic reproduction number of 1.4-1.6 and the 1918 Spanish Flu a basic reproduction number of 2-3. So far, estimates of this virus range between 1.4 and 4. H1N1 killed 0.03% of people infected, the Spanish Flu 2%. This virus so far has killed 3%.
herding cats
(19,564 posts)There are equations to be explored here, but we don't have enough numbers yet to know the factual outcome. It's just emerging and we don't have enough facts at this moment to be definitive. Also, the more confirmed cases we have in other countries changes the possibilities.
In this, case the long incubation stage makes it more difficult. SARS was just under 7 day, so far nCoV seems to be presenting at near 14 days. Which just adds to the variables.
USALiberal
(10,877 posts)Mike 03
(16,616 posts)After viewing some of the video published over the past two days (one on Al Jazeera) I wonder if we can rely on the numbers being circulated. I don't doubt the Washington Post, just the figures being provided by Chinese authorities--and I don't mean they are being dishonest, just that they may not know.
FirstLight
(13,360 posts)Also, the people who have ha dit and suffered minimally may not have been even tested, as well as many who are really ill not being able to be seen by overwhelmed hospitals.
Of the 2 in the US and the ones recently tested in the UK, it seems that they traveled over the Christmas holiday. If I was in the CDC I would have the flight manifests of ALL inbound flights from china for the week of c-mas to New year, and contact ALL those people. But then again, they are short-staffed aren't they?
ecstatic
(32,704 posts)4 of which are international. Timing couldn't be worse! One of the destinations is Dubai, which Iran has threatened to blow off the map.
Recursion
(56,582 posts)But, yeah, Paris had its first case today. Fun