Is This Coronavirus Multiplying/Spreading....

[global1]

exponentially?

[NRaleighLiberal]

1. good link

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

[abqtommy]

2. Thanks for that. I had figured a fatality rate of around 2%, good to see that confirmed.

[The_jackalope]

3. The cumulative infection curve looks exponential at the moment, but

it's going to turn into an S-shaped sigmoid or logistic curve at some point. It will lose its concave quality, turn convex and eventually flatten out. The flattening-out will happen because of a number of effects - better containment, development of vaccines or natural immunity, the lack of further infectable population etc. The 64-million-patient question is how high the curve will go before that happens.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sigmoid_function

Right now we seem to be on the curve at about the "-4" point on the graph above. The curve will look more or less exponential until "-2", the it will (gradually) lose its exponential character.

[Ms. Toad]

5. Yes - with a generation (average incubation of roughly 3.5 days -

and a transmision rate (R0)of roughly 2.6

last Saturday 2019 confirmed cases
Tuesday @ midnight ~5431 (predicted by 2019 x 2.6^1 calculation - 5249.4)
Today @ 7?30 - 13983 (predicted by 2019 x 2.6^2 calculation - 13648)


Prediction for next Tuesday (absent a slow down) - 2019 x 2.6^3 - 35486
Prediction for next Saturday (absent a slow down) - 2019 x 2.6^4 - 92,263.

We'll see. I've been told I'm making crap up - but the Tuesday and today's predictions are pretty darn close.

[Delphinus]

6. I have to

admit that I was watching the BNO News site all day and it kept the same number (around 11,350) until a bit ago and then went from that to the 13,000+ number to 14,553 just a bit ago.

[Ms. Toad]

7. The jump to 13,000+ was a bit earlier than the early evening announcemnt

so I wasn't surprised to see a second update (and perhaps a third around 11)

I don't **want** the virus to be rapidly spreading and deadly, but I also get cranky when I'm using real data, and valid calculations, then get stomped on by people who don't seem to know much about the exponential spread of contagious illnesses.

So since we are still heading in the direction I predicted (and nothing any of us can do to stop it at the moment), I am taking some perverse pleasure in how close the actual numbers are to the predictions I made a week ago.

[uppityperson]

8. A lot of it is China blocked any coverage of or release of info

There huge jump in#s is because they are finally admitting they have an outbreak. Now that that had happened, now that that they know it's a problem, other countries can be on watch for it so #s will rise again.

Yes, true infected #s are increasing, but it's not spreading from 4 cases to 20000000000 in days.