In 2020's Texas legislative elections, competition is tricky business
Republicans can keep control of the House by not losing, so not losing is their first order of business. With Democrats scheming to flip at least nine seats currently held by Republicans, defense is the GOP’s priority. That’s one reason Republicans in particular are tamping down talk of chasing Democratic incumbents: They can hold their majority without it.
Democrats have shanked two attempts to take Republican seats in special elections. In 2018, Republican Pete Flores beat Democrat Pete Gallego in a Senate district that stretches west from San Antonio and takes in most of the state’s border with Mexico. It’s ordinarily Democratic territory, and the Democrats in the race collected almost 60% of the votes in the first round. But the Republican prevailed in the runoff.
A more recent result in House District 28 was predictable. But it was a comeuppance to Democrats who sold themselves on the idea that trends in Fort Bend County would give them an upset in a consistently Republican district. Gary Gates easily beat Democrat Eliz Markowitz by 16 percentage points.
Flores is on the ballot again in November, this time in a general election where Democrats think they’ll fare better than in 2018’s special election. Even if they were to beat the incumbent, the partisan balance in the Senate is likely to remain in Republican control.
And Gates might well prevail in his bid for a full term in the House, which would keep a Republican seat in Republican hands. Under the current battle rules, he’ll have help from Republican colleagues in the House if he needs it.
In addition to the seats they’ll be defending, Republican strategists have their eyes on House districts lost to the Democrats in 2018 and now held by the likes of Erin Zwiener of Driftwood, Vikki Goodwin of Austin, James Talarico of Round Rock, Michelle Beckley of Carrollton, Ana-Maria Ramos of Dallas, Terry Meza of Irving, Rhetta Bowers of Garland, John Turner of Dallas, Julie Johnson of Carrollton, Gina Calanni of Katy, Jon Rosenthal of Houston and John Bucy of Austin.
But challengers might have to shop around for help outside of the House. So far, Democrats don’t seem restrained in the same way, and they’re mounting an offensive this year in hopes of gaining a House majority.
The incumbents they’re hunting include Morgan Meyer and Angie Chen Button of Dallas, Matt Shaheen and Jeff Leach of Plano, Brad Buckley of Killeen, Lynn Stucky of Denton, Tony Tinderholt of Arlington and Craig Goldman of Fort Worth, among others. Their list of “opportunities” has more than 20 districts on it.
https://www.texastribune.org/2020/02/03/in-2020s-texas-legislative-elections-competition-is-tricky-business/
