Gallup Poll has Trump at 49%.

[SamKnause]

Last edited Tue Feb 4, 2020, 03:02 PM - Edit history (1)

The highest since his election.

This country is fucked.

Source: Just heard on CNN

[kentuck]

1. I heard that.

Is it an outlier?

Or are we really that far up shit creek?

[SamKnause]

3. Fuck if I know.

If I had to guess I would say we are buried in the shit creek.

This is so disheartening to people who are informed, watch all the hearings,

watch all the debates, and all the town halls.

I just don't know what to say or think anymore.

[Johonny]

6. I can't believe it

so, probably an outlier. His negatives are through the roof.

[Arthur_Frain]

25. Are you sure?

People said HRC was a shoo in. The only people his negatives are through the roof for are us.

Apparently there’s 49% of the poll that’s just fine with all this. That’s something to think about.

[Johonny]

40. No, you are wrong

Recent polling results show, even among Republicans, he has huge negatives. This doesn't mean Republican voters won't vote for him. But it does suggest, no one really likes him. He has strong negatives. He's unlikely to pick up support outside his base.

[SuprstitionAintthWay]

86. "He's an asshole, but he's OUR asshole," is their "logic."

[uponit7771]

10. +1,

[Grasswire2]

57. Gallup always leans conservative.

They poll older people with landlines.

[scarytomcat]

112. Temporary bump

Reality will set in the more he talks

[lagomorph777]

2. WTF?

Has half the nation gone insane?

[SamKnause]

4. What the fuck indeed.

One half of the nation.

This is so sad and frightening.

[underpants]

5. Gallup? Put him down at a 45 at most.

Gallup twists itself to get good numbers for Republicans

[Baitball Blogger]

17. Correct.

These polls mean absolutely nothing unless the pollsters tell us how many people did you call, what party affiliation were they, and did you know their profile and likely answer before you dialed?

[Locutusofborg]

50. Gallup provides that information

Results are based on telephone interviews conducted January 16-29, 2020 with a random sample of –1,033— adults, ages 18+, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia. For results based on this sample of national adults, the margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points at the 95% confidence level.
For results based on the sample of -- 946 -- registered voters, the margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points at the 95% confidence level.
For results based on the sample of -- 443 -- Democrats and Democratic leaning independents, the margin of sampling error is ±6 percentage points at the 95% confidence level.
For results based on the sample of -- 527 -- Republicans and Republican leaning independents, the margin of sampling error is ±5 percentage points at the 95% confidence level.
Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones and cellular phones, with interviews conducted in Spanish for respondents who are primarily Spanish-speaking. Each sample of national adults includes a minimum quota of 70% cell phone respondents and 30% landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas by time zone within region. Landline and cell phone telephone numbers are selected using random digit dial methods. Gallup obtained sample for this study from Dynata. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member has the next birthday.
Samples are weighted to correct for unequal selection probability, non-response, and double coverage of landline and cell users in the two sampling frames. They are also weighted to match the national demographics of gender, age, race, Hispanic ethnicity, education, region, population density, and phone status (cell phone- only/landline only/both and cell phone mostly). Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2019 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older U.S. population. Phone status targets are based on the July-December 2018 National Health Interview Survey. Population density targets are based on the 2010 census. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting.
In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls. For questions about how this survey was conducted, please contact [e-mail]. _______________________________________________________________________________

[LiberalFighter]

77. That is the problem...

They used a sample of 443 for Democratic and Democrat leaning

vs.

527 for Republican and Republican leaning

and
why would the margin of error be different for each of them?

Don't forget this part of the above.

In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

[struggle4progress]

7. Maybe. Or maybe lots of people just aren't talking to the pollsters

[TheBlackAdder]

96. I don't talk to pollsters, I don't answer stuff on a cold call, unless it's the RNC. 😂

.

Gallup hits mostly landlines, that get older people who watch the SOTU and most can't spot Trump's BS.

.

[marmar]

8. His approval rating? So what?

Means zilch right now.

[pwb]

9. 49% brain function?

Maybe lower.

[TheCowsCameHome]

20. 49% all-fat hamberders

🤣

[JaneQPublic]

11. Gallup is a mere "B" rated pollster, says FiveThirtyEight.

Plus, it has a GOP-leaning bias.

Long ago, Gallup was considered the gold standard, but no more.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/

[LiberalFighter]

79. The media should identify that to the viewers. But of course they don't.

[Iliyah]

12. Beware of the horse race produce by corporate media . ..

polled - 527 Rs

443 Ds

[kentuck]

14. +1000

Thanks!

That helps to explain it.

[JDC]

16. Indeed

[Vogon_Glory]

30. Indeed! n/t

[Hawaii Hiker]

13. The poll breakdown:

The sample had 527 Republicans and 443 Democrats

[lagomorph777]

23. Seriously? Is there a link?

[Hawaii Hiker]

26. If link doesn't work i lifted the text

"Results are based on telephone interviews conducted January 16-29, 2020 with a random sample of –1,033—
adults, ages 18+, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia. For results based on this sample of
national adults, the margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points at the 95% confidence level.
For results based on the sample of -- 946 -- registered voters, the margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage
points at the 95% confidence level.
For results based on the sample of -- 443 -- Democrats and Democratic leaning independents, the margin of
sampling error is ±6 percentage points at the 95% confidence level.
For results based on the sample of -- 527 -- Republicans and Republican leaning independents, the margin of
sampling error is ±5 percentage points at the 95% confidence levell".

file:///C:/Users/Rich/Downloads/200204Political%20(1).pdf

[lagomorph777]

31. Whoah! Thanks! So compared to the biased sample, Turd is under-performing by 5%.

Repubs are 54% of the sample, but only 49% of the sample approve.

[Grasswire2]

58. people with LANDLINES

they don't include that tidbit

[lapfog_1]

59. I am now officialy an old fart

and I haven't had a landline in nearly 10 years.

[Grasswire2]

67. yes, but that's how Gallup polls.

People with landlines.

[Wednesdays]

89. Same kind of polling that predicted Alf Landon easily winning the 1936 election

Polling only people with telephones.

We all remember President Landon, don't we?

[grantcart]

99. There are 2 very different question lines

One is approval which skews higher for Trump, in the high 40s


The other is support for reelection which is consistently at 42%.


You can pick apart the poll if you want but the depressing reality is that he shouldn't be over 25% in any rational universe.

Whether it is 49% or 44% it shoes that this country is

1) intellectually lazy
2) prone to fear based on racist and xenophobic scare tactics
3) Have little understanding of macro economics
4) etc

This isn't going to can be in the near future.

[boston bean]

48. The Republican Party is shrinking. I wonder if it is properly weighted.

[LiberalFighter]

82. I don't see it as being weighted when they had more Republican respondents than Democratic.

Plus, I've been saying that Republican have been dying off at a greater rate than Democrats. Why do I say that? Because the older folks tend to be more conservative.

[0rganism]

64. that disparity is handled by weighting the results to match general population

as they say,
"Samples are weighted to correct for unequal selection probability, non-response, and double coverage of landline and cell users in the two sampling frames. They are also weighted to match the national demographics of gender, age, race, Hispanic ethnicity, education, region, population density, and phone status (cell phone- only/landline only/both and cell phone mostly). Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2019 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older U.S. population. Phone status targets are based on the July-December 2018 National Health Interview Survey. Population density targets are based on the 2010 census. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting."

handling unequal and even unrepresentative sub-populations is standard operating procedure for professional pollsters.

the main effects of under-sampling Democrats will be increased inaccuracies in secondary calculations based on unions and intersections of Democratic responders relative to the Republican sample.

i highly recommend referencing an aggregation site like https://fivethirtyeight.com/ this poll could easily be an outlier, but not because their samples were uneven.

[LiberalFighter]

81. I noted that too along with different margin of error for each.

[rockfordfile]

15. This is basically right-wing propaganda.

[WhiskeyGrinder]

18. If the economy doesn't crash, Trump will be reelected.

[marmar]

21. Most polls show the economy doesn't really help him.....

.... because he is so disliked.

[lagomorph777]

24. "The Economy" means one thing to billionaires and corporations; a whole other thing...

for working people. Referring to it as if it's just one thing is simply misleading.

[TheRealNorth]

60. But if the corporate media plays up the economy

That will hoodwink some people.

The Chambers of Commerce are even getting more creative with their advertising - businessea are building messaging about a "strong economy" into their regular ads.

[lagomorph777]

83. If you noticed the Trump Tax Hike in your 1040 last year; if you can't export your soybeans anymore;

if your wages are stagnant while the Chamber of Commerce is gloating in your face about how rich they are becoming; you won't be hoodwinked. You'll be massively pissed off.

[FBaggins]

92. I'm afraid that's wishful thinking

"Working people" care a great deal about the number of people working... and the wages involved.

There are reasonable responses that can be made, but the numbers imply that "economy" is also doing quite well.

[lagomorph777]

93. This chart from the Federal Reserve shows that wages have suddenly stopped growing

since Trump took office.

So I sure hope you are correct when you say '"Working people" care a great deal about the number of people working... and the wages involved.'

https://www.frbatlanta.org/chcs/wage-growth-tracker.aspx

[FBaggins]

100. No it doesn't

Not sure which chart you’re looking at. All that shows on my phone is 12-month data and it doesn’t match your description.

Here’s data from the same source over multiple years.

https://www.frbatlanta.org/blogs/macroblog/2019/12/16/faster-wage-growth-for-the-lowest-paid-workers

[lagomorph777]

102. I hear your concern

...for only the lowest-paid workers. The chart I linked to clearly shows that for workers as a whole, wages suddenly stagnated after Trump took office. Not sure why it's not showing up on your screen; it is very clear on my screen.

[FBaggins]

109. I see it now (PC)... I'm afraid you're reading it wrong

The Y axis is not an absolute figure... it's a rate of growth. Wages didn't "stagnate"... they grew at roughly the same rate as the highest of the prior eight years. So the rate of growth did not accelerate (though the latest data refutes that)... but that's not at all the same thing as claiming that wages stagnated.

More importantly... in a total reversal from the prior period. The lowest quartile population saw wages grow at a faster pace than wages in general (and at close to the highest rates of the last couple decades).

This matches the prose of the link that I sent (which makes sense because it's the same source).

[lagomorph777]

111. People at minimum wage benefited mainly from state initiatives to raise minimum.

Which, of course, were in direct opposition (probably intentional defiance) to Republican policies.

[FBaggins]

113. Not statistically significant

There are over 150 million employed in the country with only about half a million of them earning the federal minimum wage. The bottom quartile is far too large for that to explain the difference.

More importantly... you would have to have a reason to believe that state efforts in this area were more substantial over the last three years than the previous period for the claim to be relevant.

We don’t have to believe that “republican policies” should get credit for the gains... but can’t pretend that they don’t exist (or that it could impact the election)

[tman]

29. He was disliked in 2016.

That won't decide the election.

[marmar]

37. But so was Hillary.

[rockfordfile]

62. Majority of Americans want Trump convicted

[WhiskeyGrinder]

73. People vote for candidates they don't like all the time.

[Drunken Irishman]

103. The economy is helping him, tho...

It's why he's viable and within striking distance of winning against any Dem running right now.

If the economy was in the tank, he'd be far worse off.

It's true Trump isn't getting the same bounce from the economy as a normal president would get but I think he's still getting support. He certainly isn't at Nixon levels in approval.

[uponit7771]

22. That's if we truly have an election, we don't Trump has already committed to cheating

[Butterflylady]

53. How can anybody say that he will be re- elected

When we don't even know who our nominee will be yet.

[WhiskeyGrinder]

74. Because no matter who our nominee is, it's hard to beat an incumbent in a strong economy.

[Awsi Dooger]

87. You are among the very few who grasps the big picture reality

Everyone here prefers to look at Trump as an exception. That's why there has been such preposterous confidence that he would be forced out of office, or resign from office, or be impeached, or not renominated.

That is the nonsensical view that attaches when someone obsesses over daily details or breathlessly waits for Rachel Maddow every night.

I have emphasized since 2017 that Trump is not an exception. All of the benefits of incumbency are going to fully apply. You described the situation perfectly.

This is the same thing I experienced while living in Las Vegas for 24 years and betting sports. The gamblers who watched every game and allowed waves of new variables to influence their subjective opinion every day had absolutely no chance. The ones who relaxed and applied a wide scope spotlight knew what to anticipate.

I feel genuinely sorry for anyone who opinion is in the balance every day.

[Grammy23]

19. Seems like every day we wake up to a Fresh New Hell.

We are told that up is down. Black is white. Just deal with it and shut up. We watch the Democrats do a hellava job trying to present facts and evidence with facts and evidence being withheld. And STILL, they did an amazing job of burying tRump with what he did. The Republican response was to casually walk away saying No Big Deal.

I just don’t even know what to say any more. It gets harder and harder to believe that truth will win out, that right will prevail. Moving out of this stinker of a place gets more appealing by the day. But where? The unrest and upheaval is everywhere.

It feels like we’re in the middle of a novel that promises a climactic end. So many possibilities. I still cling to this idea that our Constitution will save us, even knowing we have people actively working to stop that from happening.

I’m tired of the drama and uncertainty and I know that is what tRump, Putin and others are counting on. They are hoping more and more of us will just relent and stop fighting. I am a stubborn cuss, so for now they won’t make me knuckle under. But damn it....it is hard. My dad, who died in 1967, is spinning in his grave. 😢

[whathehell]

51. That's what it feels like..

I could say more, Granny, but right now, it seems too depressing. Thanks for your excellent post, though.. I'm also a Boomer and your sentiments equal mine. :

[NoMoreRepugs]

27. When u poll more Deplorables than reality based

individuals of course Rump is going to get good numbers. Doesn’t take a rocket scientist or another poll to figure that out.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

28. No one poll is dispositive. Every poll is a data point.

That being said the economy is buoying Trump and as long as Americans believe it's good it will continue to buoy Trump.

[democratisphere]

32. We are up sh'ts creek UNLESS we Democrats choose the most

electable candidate. Joe Biden.

[She_Totally_Gets_It]

66. I couldn't agree more! If we don't choose Biden,

we are done!

[gab13by13]

33. Polls are used for propaganda,

Gallup years ago used to be reliable but when it plugged in bogus data for the 2008 election they exposed that they are corrupt.

I laugh at this poll.

[Phoenix61]

34. FiveThirtyEight has 43.6 Approve, 52.1 Disapprove nt

[Loki Liesmith]

35. Average the polls folks.

People freak out over individual polls.
Here’s a tip: don’t read individual polls at all. Just follow the averages.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

39. You're 100% right but it's unsettling to see Trump doing well in a respected poll.

[Loki Liesmith]

44. Sure I get it.

About 1 in 20 polls is going to show an anomalous result though. This is in line with that probability.

Life is just too short to let the noise in the system affect our mood. In the end we will win or we will lose. Anybody here planning on quitting the fight if we lose? I don’t think many are.

Trust yourself and your team.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

47. I am trying to adopt a Zen like approach to politics ...

I am trying to adopt a Zen like approach to politics but Trump is singularly awful.

[rockfordfile]

63. Gallup is not a respected pollster

They lost that years ago.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

65. Perception is reality. The media treats them/sees them as a respected pollster.

I'm not a fan but that has no bearing on how the media presents them.

[Vogon_Glory]

36. Chill! It's only February!

There’s still the better part of nine months until voting starts.

Donnie has shown time and time again that he is an agent of chaos and disruption. He does NOT have it all under control.

[Claritie Pixie]

38. Nope. Gallup skews way right.

[dewsgirl]

41. I no longer believe any of these polls.

[MoMof6]

42. Hmmm....

I would not dismiss these poll results so flippantly.

Gallup has been around a long time. If the results were favoring us, history shows we would be trumpeting them.

Nonetheless, the standout result to me in this latest poll is the change in the Trump approval rating from Independents > up 5% to 42%. We all know these people are the swing voters that will decide the next election. We have to figure out why we are losing them...and figure it out quick.

If this trend continues it will not matter who the Dem nominee is....

[Vogon_Glory]

45. Nine months out and some defeatists are already saying that All Is Lost

It’s not 2016. Donnie’s novelty has worn off. Democrats are far angrier and less complacent than they were four years ago. And Donnie still has months more to be seen screwing up at home and abroad.

Cletus and Lulabell can’t carry Orange Julius over the finish line all by themselves.

[marmar]

46. +1000

Way too early for all this drama about a snapshot approval rating poll. Makes you wonder......

[octoberlib]

71. Individual polls don't matter. Aggregates do.

Trump is at 43% on 538

[denem]

43. Was does Rasmussen say?

They are even better than Gall Up

[GeorgeGist]

49. Gish Gallop?

[andym]

52. The great danger is people have just gotten used to Trump's malignant behavior

and enough are willing to give him a pass because of the economy to re-elect him. It's been the nightmare scenario for a while.

[Awsi Dooger]

88. The nightmare scenario and easy to anticipate

Trump inherited an Obama economy that was strengthening. His crude behavior was always going to be absorbed. Now it's going to be shocking when we don't have a president who lashes out every day.

[Still Sensible]

54. In the last 20 years Gallup has been running

around 3-5% tilted conservative. Real number is probably 44-46%, which is still a terrible statement on the politics of the USA!

[Grasswire2]

55. Gallup always leans conservative.

I wouldn't worry about that.

Older people with landlines.

[jayfish]

56. Gosh! Someone Predicted This And Was Soundly Thrashed Here.

Hmm... Who could it have been?

https://www.democraticunderground.com/100212933443

[videohead5]

70. But this poll is fake

They way oversampled Republicans. There are more Registered Democrats than Republicans.

[Bradical79]

61. Aggregate has him below 44%

As of now, Gallup's recent poll is an outlier.

[sandensea]

76. +1

And Gallup's polls usually are outliers - on the GOPee side.

[Midnight Writer]

68. I won't be included in any polls, because I no longer answer my phone.

I get between 5 and 20 robocalls a day, so I have stopped answering.

A couple of times a day I look through the caller ID and if I recognize the caller, I call them back.

Surely I am not alone in this. It makes me wonder how that affects the sampling for polls.

[octoberlib]

72. Same here. How do they even get people with cell phones to answer?

[videohead5]

69. The poll is bunk

They oversampled Republicans.

[sandensea]

75. 538 has his poll-of-polls approval at 43.6%

Gallup is notoriously GOP-leaning - like a Rasmussen-lite.

[uponit7771]

95. +1, Gallops polling is really old relatively speaking ... this looks like a meme push

[sandensea]

106. Good point.

Looks like they were trying to goose Cheetolini's speech.

Didn't work.

[Generic Other]

78. We need to quote his views on cutting Social Security

to every old person you ever talk to.

Make memes for FB. Post videos. They are winning the propaganda race.

[JudyM]

97. Our party desperately needs to focus on effective messaging.

[Generic Other]

107. I am maintaining a brainstorming thread

Idea bank.

https://www.democraticunderground.com/100212949192

[JudyM]

108. That's great!

Threw down some thoughts there, hopefully others will too!

[bdamomma]

80. people

want a dictator????




Who is that 49%????

or is Russian propaganda, some one has to fill the void of Rush now.

[JustAnotherGen]

84. I don't trust polls

They've gotten it wrong when it really matters.

My assumption is we are losing the WH, the Senate, and House - and I intend to prevent that from happening.

Let's fight like we are half way through the knock out count.

[OliverQ]

85. America is a lost cause.

[Vogon_Glory]

91. It ain't over till it's over

Yogi Berra was right. I see no reason to even think of turning the ccountry over to the Trumpies until after Election Day.

[Aristus]

90. That number is softer than a marshmallow fluff sandwich on Wonder Bread.

n/t

[uponit7771]

94. *** GALLOP POLLING IS OLD *** Recent Polling has him in the low 40s

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/

[Greybnk48]

98. Fake news. Other polls have him much lower.

And example just posted on DU
https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/ct/news/documents/2020-02/2020_reuters_tracking_-_core_political_impeachment_tracker_02_05_2020.pdf
0

[DonCoquixote]

101. if 2016 taught us anything

It is that these Polls are barely worth the paper they are printed on.

[HelpImSurrounded]

104. Relax. Look at 538 for a more informative picture

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/

In particular, look at how Trump's ratings compare to every president back to Truman. His ratings are abysmal.

[crickets]

105. Excellent link for perspective on this - Thank you! nt

[NCLefty]

110. Polls said Hillary was going to win too. I don't buy it this far out.

[Pacifist Patriot]

114. PRIMAL FUCKING SCREAM