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Our Economy Is Not Doing Great - Stop Saying It Is (Original Post) DanieRains Feb 2020 OP
I know.... cilla4progress Feb 2020 #1
Why we were saying it then? fescuerescue Feb 2020 #16
Yep! cilla4progress Feb 2020 #17
I agree 100% mylightningtoo Feb 2020 #2
Meanwhile the real Trump Economy BlueIdaho Feb 2020 #3
Totally! cilla4progress Feb 2020 #19
Yep ck4829 Feb 2020 #24
Thank you! thegoose Feb 2020 #4
Correct, only dump & the 1% CountAllVotes Feb 2020 #7
Agreed . . . Iliyah Feb 2020 #5
Imagine the economy if money was no object under Obama. That's what they should brewens Feb 2020 #6
The problem is ... most people are invested in real estate ... mr_lebowski Feb 2020 #8
Yes,if you are planning on Wellstone ruled Feb 2020 #9
I am in the midst of house hunting handmade34 Feb 2020 #10
Good Luck DanieRains Feb 2020 #11
Caveat Emptor... handmade34 Feb 2020 #12
and buy title insurance...it does protect you just in case, and it's only a one time fee! SWBTATTReg Feb 2020 #22
Hire a home evaluator, do thorough checks on the person or company that you hire. Blue_true Feb 2020 #13
Remember how resistant the media was to giving President Obama ecstatic Feb 2020 #14
It's quite shocking ck4829 Feb 2020 #25
Real weekly earnings... Obama last 3y: +4.48%, Trump's first 35 mo: +2.84%, Last 12 mo: +0.31% progree Feb 2020 #15
thank you nt spooky3 Feb 2020 #28
Deficits falling (under Obama) and rising (under Trump) progree Feb 2020 #18
Impressive data collection and cilla4progress Feb 2020 #21
The presidential jobs table progree Feb 2020 #20
Work in retail, feel what 'borrowed time' is like ck4829 Feb 2020 #23
to me Skittles Feb 2020 #26
And with this "retail apocalypse" going on, the squeeze is on ck4829 Feb 2020 #29
OMG Skittles Feb 2020 #30
Ugh. True. Dems need to turn his supposed strength into his obvious weakness. n/t Beartracks Feb 2020 #27

BlueIdaho

(13,582 posts)
3. Meanwhile the real Trump Economy
Sun Feb 9, 2020, 01:52 PM
Feb 2020

Is adding one trillion dollars a year to our national debt. No different than Reagan fueling the economy with IOUs.

cilla4progress

(24,728 posts)
19. Totally!
Sun Feb 9, 2020, 03:16 PM
Feb 2020

I don't know why Dems didn't jump right on this and rinse, repeat..

Remember "it's the economy, stupid?" (thanks James Carville)

I can only think they've been so gobsmacked with the extreme crime spree...hard to know where to start? Like whack-a-mole!

Rs always juice the economy this way, leaving Dems to clean it up.

CountAllVotes

(20,868 posts)
7. Correct, only dump & the 1%
Sun Feb 9, 2020, 02:15 PM
Feb 2020

No one is doing any better since this parasite managed to steal the election in 2012!

When will We the People rise up against this manipulation?

We have been overtaken by a serious threat, the new RepubliKKKan party and their narcissistic leader, aka #fatdonnie .

The time has come to #dumptRump!

& recommend!

brewens

(13,582 posts)
6. Imagine the economy if money was no object under Obama. That's what they should
Sun Feb 9, 2020, 02:00 PM
Feb 2020

be saying. The half-wits don't know Obama reduced the deficit and still outperformed Trump.

 

mr_lebowski

(33,643 posts)
8. The problem is ... most people are invested in real estate ...
Sun Feb 9, 2020, 02:15 PM
Feb 2020

And home prices being relatively high makes people feel like 'they're doing well'. It's probably the single biggest indicator in people's minds, followed by the stock market, that 'the economy is good'.

Buying a house is also relatively easy if you have decent credit, interest rates are quite low, and credit is flowing reasonably easily as well. Which contributes to home prices being high, as it creates a larger pool of buyers.

There are, however, important indicators that it's NOT that great, as you say. The exploding deficit being one, wages not keeping up with productivity, etc.

But we'll have a hard time convincing John Q. Public that the economy isn't doing well when their portfolios are growing and their home values rising. People just aren't that sophisticated in their thinking and understanding of economics.

 

Wellstone ruled

(34,661 posts)
9. Yes,if you are planning on
Sun Feb 9, 2020, 02:26 PM
Feb 2020

carrying a Mortgage and the PITI does not meet your gross Income to present debt ratio,yes,so many are shut out.

There are ways to do a purchase,but,you really have to have your ducks in row and you have to stay focused for the first five years until your Equity accumulates,and if housing market does not crash more the 8-10%.

 

DanieRains

(4,619 posts)
11. Good Luck
Sun Feb 9, 2020, 02:50 PM
Feb 2020

Don't trust sellers. Do all the research. Make sure the sewer works, no mold, and it doesn't flood. Look for signs. And make sure you are covered on property lines/easements/access.

Done a lot of buying and selling.

A little free friendly advice.

Blue_true

(31,261 posts)
13. Hire a home evaluator, do thorough checks on the person or company that you hire.
Sun Feb 9, 2020, 02:59 PM
Feb 2020

There are some good ones out there, but there are crooks.

It will set you back some in terms of money, but a good home evaluator will potentially save you 2-5 times that amount by preventing you from buying a home that has lots of problems (or is in a neighborhood that has a few bad neighbors, evaluators dig that stuff out).

ecstatic

(32,701 posts)
14. Remember how resistant the media was to giving President Obama
Sun Feb 9, 2020, 03:05 PM
Feb 2020
any credit whatsoever for the economy? They wouldn't even acknowledge that the economy had recovered. Now they're tripping all over themselves to say trump has a great economy. It's sickening.

progree

(10,904 posts)
15. Real weekly earnings... Obama last 3y: +4.48%, Trump's first 35 mo: +2.84%, Last 12 mo: +0.31%
Sun Feb 9, 2020, 03:06 PM
Feb 2020

Real (meaning inflation-adjusted) average weekly earnings of production and non-supervisory workers:
http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0500000031

I'm using Trump's first 35 months instead of 36 months because the January CPI report won't be released until February 13. I'll then be able then to do Trump's last 36 months and last 12 months through January 31. But anyway, this is how it is shaping up.

What's odd is that pretty much ever since Trump has been president, the media has been talking about the tightening labor market and wages finally rising. Well, the figures show a wage slowdown compared to Obama's last 3 years.

Edited: last 12 months +0.31%, not -0.31%

progree

(10,904 posts)
18. Deficits falling (under Obama) and rising (under Trump)
Sun Feb 9, 2020, 03:13 PM
Feb 2020

G.W. Bush inherited an economy from Clinton that had 4 budget surpluses in a row)

{#} ACTUAL Federal Spending and Deficits - Fiscal Years 2008 - 2019, in $Billions

Fiscal year 2019 ended September 30, 2019. Similarly for all the other fiscal years.

Note: all figures in this section are actual, not budgeted. I only point out that Bush signed the FY 2009 budget, and that Obama signed the FY 2017 budget.




And yes, the above numbers include payroll tax receipts (including Social Security) and Social Security benefits expenditures, since the above are unified budget numbers.

Source:
. . . https://www.cbo.gov/publication/55824 which links to the complete document at
. . . https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2019-11/55824-CBO-MBR-FY19.pdf . . . See also
. . . https://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/whitehouse.gov/files/omb/budget/fy2018/hist01z1.xls
. . . https://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/whitehouse.gov/files/omb/budget/fy2019/hist01z1.xls <-does not work 2/3/20
. . . (Table 1.1) for receipts, outlays, and surplus
. . . . . . https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/hist01z1-fy2020.xlsx
(Historic tables are listed at http://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/budget/Historicals ).

Source for the 2008 numbers (and 2009 thru 2012 except a couple of the later years were revised by the document above):
. . . http://www.cbo.gov/publication/43698 which links to the complete document at
. . . https://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/112th-congress-2011-2012/reports/43698-Nov-MBR.pdf


Aside: how it was spent (good read): https://www.cbpp.org/research/policy-basics-where-do-our-federal-tax-dollars-go


Regarding Obama's 8 years: FY 2017 federal spending is 463 B$ (13.2%) more than FY 2009 (the last Bush budgeted year).

Since the nominal (current dollar) GDP increased by 35.5% between FY 2009 (a recession low point) and FY 2017 (see next paragraph), while federal spending increased 13.2%, that means federal spending as a percentage of GDP dropped substantially during those 8 years -- from 24.46% of GDP to 20.42% of GDP (calculations below). Something to keep in mind when some rightie rants and raves about the socialist Obama spending us into the poor house.

Note: I am including FY 2017 as part of Obama's legacy because he signed the FY 2017 budget spending bills. FY 2017 runs from Oct. 1, 2016 thru Sept. 30, 2017 -- 3 2/3 months while Obama was president, and 8 1/3 months while Trump was president). Just like I assigned FY 2009 to Bush

In Current Dollars: GDP FY 2009 (2009 Q3) = $14,384.1 billion . GDP FY 2017 (2017 Q3) = $19,495.5 billion -- an increase of 35.5% over FY 2009.

Source of GDP figures: http://www.bea.gov/national/xls/gdplev.xls
where FY 2009 = Q4 2008 through Q3 2009. And FY 2017 = Q4 2016 through Q3 2017.

FY 2009: Spending / GDP = 3518/14384 = 24.46% . FY 2017: Spending / GDP = 3981/19496 = 20.42%

The Fiscal Year 2009 budget (Oct. 1, 2008 - Sept 30, 2009) was signed into law by G.W. Bush. The CBO on January 7, 2009 (13 days before Bush left office) projected a $1.2 trillion deficit for FY 2009. So all but about $200 billion of FY 2009 spending and deficits was "baked in" before Bush left office.

cilla4progress

(24,728 posts)
21. Impressive data collection and
Sun Feb 9, 2020, 03:29 PM
Feb 2020

analysis!

I think we all agree we have the facts on our side. Our challenge is getting the message to permeate the public at large.

I read that Rs go for the gut, while we Ds go for the intellect. I've noticed that Rs are more hung up on symbols (flag, bible, confederate monuments, even constitution!) than actual substance / content.

Sadly, I think one of the best ways we can attack drumpf is to continue to show him as the weak, pathetic, insecure, flabby, impotent loser that he is. Not as a bully narcissist (strong, in his followers'minds), but as a truly incompetent, paranoid, dim-witted impulse-challenged baby.


(Remember Ari Member's riff on drumpf as a baby, some while back? Whatever happened to the diapered blimp of him? It should fly every day near the WH. Fuck, if white nationalists can march in DC with police protection, surely blimp flyers should!)

progree

(10,904 posts)
20. The presidential jobs table
Sun Feb 9, 2020, 03:23 PM
Feb 2020

# Job Creation of record of post-WWII Presidents, Average Annual % Increases. -- Sorted from best to worst by average annual percentage increase in jobs. Republicans in red, Democrats in blue. Notice that -- with the tiny exception (0.02% difference) of Nixon to Kennedy -- the worst Democrat has a better record than the best Republican -- that is, until Obama, who inherited an economy that was losing several hundred thousand jobs a month.

Also, Kennedy did not have a chance to complete his term -- had he done so, and had he had the same job creation numbers in December 1963 through January 1965 as Johnson had (a 3.48%/year annualized rate of increase), he would have easily topped Nixon.

(updated 2/7/20 after new jobs report released - it has revisions going back decades. Unfortunately, Ford edges out Obama on average annual percentage job increase by 0.01% (1.09% to 1.08%)




Remember, Obama inherited the deepest recession since World War II, which lost 4.2 million jobs in the last 10 months of his predecessor, and in the last 3 months of his predecessor was losing 753,000 jobs a month. With that momentum, job losses continued for the first 13 months of the Obama presidency -- through February 2010 -- totalling 4.3 million jobs lost during those 13 months.

Anyway, despite the 4.3 million jobs lost in his first 13 months because of the Bush crash, Obama still beats 3 of the last 6 post-WWII Republican presidents with completed terms.

In the above table, the average annual % increase in jobs (the last column) is a much fairer way to compare presidents than just the raw job creation figures in thousands because the latter is unfair to the earlier presidents who were working with much smaller labor forces to begin with. For example the number of job holders at the beginning of Truman's administration was only 38% as many as at the beginning of Clinton's administration, and 31% as many as at the beginning of G.W. Bush's administration. So Truman's pathetic-looking 93,570 jobs/month creation record turns out to be even better than Clinton's 238,521 jobs/month record when adjusted for the size of the labor force at the beginning of their terms.

In raw thousands of jobs created per year, both Reagan and Nixon beat Truman. But when adjusted for the size of the labor force -- again, by looking at average annual percentage increases in jobs -- Truman beats them both.

Official sources of information for the above:

# Payroll Jobs: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001
# Monthly change of above: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001?output_view=net_1mth
# . . Hint: to see both of the above two together on the same page, go to http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001 and click on the "More Formatting Options" link in the upper right and check the "Original Data Value" and the "1-Month Net Change" checkboxes and click the "Retrieve Data" button halfway down the page on the left
# Private Sector Payroll Employment: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0500000001
# Monthly change of above: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0500000001?output_view=net_1mth

ck4829

(35,069 posts)
29. And with this "retail apocalypse" going on, the squeeze is on
Sun Feb 9, 2020, 08:30 PM
Feb 2020

And not only that, it's becoming more brutal out there, before the past year and a half, I could actually count the number of bad days, bad incidents on one hand... now I don't know, people are expecting more and more maybe because of online shopping or something, people are taking "the customer is always right" to extremes, it's just crazy. The amount of incidents has skyrocketed in that time. My coworkers and I have had to deal with adults throwing temper tantrums, people feeling like they need a red carpet rolled out just for them, fights between customers, racist and bigoted remarks towards my coworkers, I'm a manager but I also work a cash register and I consistently get high reviews when it comes to customer service, I had a customer just turn to me out of the blue on Friday and I have no idea what I did or said, and they told me "I'm not coming back here because of what you did" and I'm just going inside my head "what did I do" before I could formulate a response and the customer behind him doing the "he's loopy" expression.

I know work isn't going to always be pleasurable or even enjoyable... but I have never been as mentally exhausted and anxious about my job as I have been in this recent time... in this "strong economy" that we are supposed to have.

Skittles

(153,159 posts)
30. OMG
Sun Feb 9, 2020, 08:43 PM
Feb 2020

See, that is why I have always thought of such jobs are too difficult, I think I would attack people who behave that way. In fact, I KNOW I would. I did not realize it has gotten worse for you folk but yeah, I think social media and instant online shopping is making people behave worse. You should probably start a thread about this - maybe some of those assholes will chime in and tell us why.

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