CDC and hospital errors led to US coronavirus patient being sent back to military base
Link to tweet
The first US evacuee from China known to be infected with the Wuhan coronavirus was mistakenly released from a San Diego hospital https://cnn.it/2UFx6t4
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This shouldn’t have happened and better protocol and procedures need to be followed.
I don’t know how many people on DU are paying close attention and have been bothering to follow the data closely. But if you are looking at the data (not just the quick summaries on evening news of the daily increase in total reported cases and total daily death count, then you know all too well that the more thorough data on the Coronavirus (now called COVID-19) is far more serious than the reported 2% death rate. The CFR (Case Fatality Rate) being reported is current deaths belonging to a total case figure of the past, not to the current case figure in which the outcome (recovery or death) of a proportion (the most recent cases) hasn't yet been determined.
An alternative method that should be used and which has the advantage of not having to estimate a variable and is mentioned in the American Journal of Epidemiology study cited previously as a simple method that nevertheless could work reasonably well if the hazards of death and recovery at any time t measured from admission to the hospital, conditional on an event occurring at time t, are proportional, would be to use the formula:
CFR = deaths / (deaths + recovered)
which, with the latest data available, would be equal to:
1,115 / (1,115 + 4,831) = 19% CFR (worldwide)
Currently there are 39,262 reported Infected Patients worldwide of which 31,046 (79%) are in “Mild Condition” and then the remaining 8,216 (21%) are in “Serious or Critical Condition”. The percentage of reported cases with no outcome (in other words that haven’t yet resolved themselves in either recovery or death) keeps increasing daily in terms of higher and higher rates in serious to critical condition. I suggest based on the daily and weekly numbers I have been looking at based on reported data, shows higher and increasing rates of infected in serious to critical and that if we go with what I believe is the actual mortality rate of around 20%, I predict that the death toll will be around 10,000 or more in next month.
And even more frightening is to consider when you factor in “unreported cases” and what that would do to the eventual rate.
I can only say that currently we are at least on the early side 9 months away from any vaccination and the infection rate, especially if greater precautions are not taken and followed or mistakes like this one in San Diego, and we are looking at an epidemic of massive proportions that could kill hundreds of thousands and possibly millions if we aren’t vigilant.
I believe this virus based on all info we currently know is very serious. But it’s what we will still be finding out over time that I believe will end up proving that COVID-19 to be something so fatal and kill so many and that the number of dead and the economic consequences globally so serious and crushing. China as it has been may not ever be the same and could quite literally lose a massive percentage of their population. And how we contain it outside of China will determine so much too.
...being told or realize yet.
I hope I am wrong but fear I am right.
Meanwhile, as if there isn’t enough else to be worried about...
