Flu Pandemic likely & could affect 40-70% of world population, says Harvard pub health professor

[Dennis Donovan]

Link to tweet

Michael C. Bender ✔@MichaelCBender

Harvard public heath prof Mac Lipsitch, on coronavirus: “It is likely we’ll see a global pandemic...If a pandemic happens, 40% to 70% of people world-wide are likely to be infected in the coming year.”

https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-many-people-might-one-person-with-coronavirus-infect-11581676200 …
How Many People Might One Person With Coronavirus Infect?
When an infection erupts the way coronavirus has exploded in Wuhan, China, and elsewhere in the world, public-health experts try to gauge the potential for an epidemic—or, worse, a pandemic—by...

10:11 AM - Feb 14, 2020

I've been kinda hanging back on this, thinking the last few pandemics might've been overblown a bit. This caught my attention. 😳

[Turbineguy]

1. This Professor watches

too much Fox News I'd guess.

[USALiberal]

4. Please post your credentials! Nt

[Renew Deal]

3. It's time to get the mashed potato buckets from Jim Bakker

[Thomas Hurt]

5. Bleach and Prayers people, Bleach and Prayers

[dewsgirl]

6. As you know, I have been following this story very closely.

Nothing is being blown out of proportion, that is what we have been accustomed to.
I know it's only a movie, but I just watched Contagion for the first time since, I watched it in the theatre.
R0 in the movie, 1.5
R0 for Coronavirus somewhere between 2.5 and 6.0.
I am very worried. I understand most would rather not hear about it, but it's here.

[USALiberal]

8. I need to watch that movie again. Nt

[Dennis Donovan]

9. I was skeptical this would be as bad or worse than other recent pandemics

But, people a LOT smarter than me are saying this is a big problem. I usually defer to experts in matters like this.

[MissB]

10. Even better is the 2008 BBC series Survivors

Fictional, of course, but it portrays a flu that starts in China (!) and kills most folks.

[dewsgirl]

11. Do you know where I can find this?

[dewsgirl]

12. I found it, but no links.😔

[USALiberal]

17. Great web site......

JustWatch.com

Tells you how you can see it

https://www.justwatch.com/us/tv-show/survivors

[dewsgirl]

19. Thank you.❤

[dalton99a]

7. "1,716 medical workers have contracted the virus and six of them have died"

For the first time on Friday, China disclosed figures that drove home the risks faced by those on the front line: 1,716 medical workers have contracted the virus and six of them have died. Of those people, 1,502 were in Hubei Province, with 1,102 of them in Wuhan, the provincial capital and the center of the outbreak.

The announcement was the first official confirmation about the number of infected medical workers, and is likely to ratchet up fears about the spread of the virus.

“I think it’s quite concerning,” said Benjamin Cowling, a professor of epidemiology at the University of Hong Kong. “Health care workers face the challenge of caring for a substantial number of patients in Wuhan. It’s worrying to discover that a number of them have been infected.”

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/14/world/asia/china-coronavirus.html

[dewsgirl]

13. Devastating.😥

[GeorgeGist]

14. Too bad the article is hidden behind a paywall and ...

the subheading is "Researchers in U.K. offer clues as to how contagious Covid-19 virus could be". Nothing about Harvard.

[Dennis Donovan]

15. I posted the tweet instead of the article because of the paywall

I subscribe to NYT, WaPo, TPM, etc, but I'm not giving Murdoch a cent.

FWIW, Michael C Bender (the tweeter) is the WH reporter for the WSJ, in case you're questioning the veracity of the information in his tweet.

[haele]

16. Spouse is watching MedCram, which has a daily science update on the virus

The doctor brought up that ongoing research is seeming to find that along with the normal contributing factors to becoming sick and potentially dying from this virus, it appears that a history of regular proper sleep (7 to 9 hours minimally interrupted) seems to be a major factor in people who become infected but do not become obviously symptomatic or recover quickly when they do. Sleep Apnea or a stressful urban lifestyle where sleep is experienced only 4/5 hours at a time (like being a doctor or nurse on long shifts) seem to be a common factor with people who become critically ill.
So, if this becomes a Pandemic, the average screen-locked Twitter-ranting American seems to be in particular danger...

Haele

[Act_of_Reparation]

18. Coronavirus do not cause the flu.