It's pretty clear from what we know about coronavirus that there will be no protecting against it

[ProfessorPlum]

I think the most likely scenario we are facing is in about two years from now, everyone will have had it and the people who survive it will still be around.

I say this because of things like

1. people can be contagious for over a week without showing any symptoms
2. people can have the same viral load whether they are showing symptoms or not
3. testing for the virus is in early stages
4. china doesn't seem serious about preventing its spread (the CDC and WHO just were allowed into China recently)
5. it is a kind of virus that is prone to mutation and resistant to having vaccines made against it

From what I can tell, the virus kills by infecting the lungs which are then also susceptible to bacterial pneumonia, which brings on death. Because the Dump administration is completely lying down on the job, we will have to prepare and battle this virus at the local/state level.

We should encourage our local governments to stockpile anti-pneumonia antibiotics, anti-virals, and other measures that may make the difference to people with lung infection. We should assume we will all have this virus at some point, and think about ways to deal with it at home or in local gathering places if our hospitals are overrun.

Time to protect ourselves if Trump's government won't do it.

[smirkymonkey]

1. I just heard from someone at work today that we get about 95% of our antibiotics from China.

Not that we couldn't find other sources or manufacture them here, but I don't know how quickly that could happen. They won't help w/ the virus, but will help w/ pneumonia and other secondary bacterial infections.

[rampartc]

2. how quickly will the homeless, immigrants, unemployed etc etc etc

be rushing to the doctor to see if their cold and flu symptoms are coronavirus?

we are all going to get it. some will die.

[Aristus]

13. My clinic door is open to the homeless, immigrants, and the unemployed.

We will welcome them with open arms. And I'll give them 100%...

[ProfessorPlum]

19. thank you for this

not really sure what the person you are responding to was trying to say about these people

[Girard442]

26. The point being that people in dire straits....

...don’t see a doctor unless they absolutely have to—and maybe not even then. Says nothing about their character but a whole lot about their circumstances.

[rampartc]

30. that is what i was trying to say

[area51]

22. Thank you. n/t

[rampartc]

29. thank you very much aristus

[KY_EnviroGuy]

38. Thank you, Aristus. I hope the emergency rooms around the U.S. are....

making special preparations for this in case it comes to us. Just thinking through my many experiences in ERs, I don't think we're well prepared to prevent disease spread in those areas.

Thoughts?

KY..........

[LibinMo]

49. I had to take my 83 year old husband to ER last December

He became ill suddenly(at night, of course) and couldn't even stand up. I suspected a stroke so I called for an ambulance. He went through triage, they put him in a wheelchair and then we waited six hours before finally getting several tests and treatment which consisted of a couple of bags of fluid for rehydration. Then they sent us home over my protests. I wasn't sure I could get him back up the stairs and into bed. They told us to visit our GP the next day which was a Friday. When I phoned the Doctor the next next morning the best they could do was a visit with the nurse practioner on the following Tuesday.

But the waiting room was hellish. Full of people of all ages-babies to us old folks- coughing all over each other. One woman in a wheelchair had pulled her blanket over
her head. No way to tell if she was dead or alive under there. Another woman with long dark hair doubled over in her wheel chair, hair hanging nearly to the floor. I never saw her face.

When I had to go to urgent care New Year's Eve a couple of years ago same thing-people were packed together like sardines. That visit only took about four hours but I swore to myself I'd never do it again. I'll stay home and take my chances.

What a nightmare it will become when those waiting areas are filled with with Coronavirus victims!

[KY_EnviroGuy]

50. K&R. My thoughts, exactly.

As the World Health Organization has already stated, we simply are not prepared.

Best wishes and safety to you and your family in this ordeal........

[lunasun]

52. Did you see the packed hospital corridors in China ? Not good I understand they were point zero

so it came on without preparations . I can only hope we as a system will be more prepared since we are aware ahead of time

[mahina]

51. That's wonderful.

❤️

[dewsgirl]

59. I think you are truly exceptional, seriously.

I don't think it's just me being jaded, you seem to actually care. Your patients are fortunate to have you.

[Aristus]

60. That's very nice, thank you.

If you're picturing a suffering saint, don't. I do it because I love it. It has its stresses, irritations, and inconveniences like any other job. But it's the most rewarding job I've ever had.

[dewsgirl]

61. I have been reading your posts for years, I am happy you

enjoy it, I have had one doctor like that and I loved him, truly a good person, it broke my heart when he moved.

[Aristus]

62. My posts don't always convey the rewarding aspects of my job.

I'm usually posting the complaints. In homeless medicine, a good day is an uneventful one...

[dewsgirl]

63. I know, I remember one specifically about a man I believe using

drugs or loitering in front of your office, I can't remember exactly what happened, you felt bad and brought him a cup of coffee afterwards. I found it touching.

[Aristus]

65. Well, I didn't want him using anywhere, but definitely not in front of the clinic.

If word gets to the cops that we're a shooting gallery, there is going to be a hard time of it.

As for the coffee, it was liberal guilt. It was 6:30 in the morning and very cold. I'm in a warm office with fresh hot coffee. I couldn't shoo him away without trying to make up for it a little...

[hamsterjill]

64. Aristus, you are the real deal.

And I thank you for having the compassion and stamina to help any who come to you.

We are Democrats and THIS is what makes us different.

[cherryinpa]

3. Perfect storm

Idiot in the Whitehouse who has appointed a cabinet of dunces.

Now faced with a massive crisis.

Who's he going to assign to this?

Omarosa?

How about bringing Brownie back?

What a fucking nightmare.

[maryellen99]

4. He's not going to do anything to stop it

Because if he does, it will hurt his precious economy and that would severely hurt his re-election chances.

[ProfessorPlum]

6. wait til he finds out how much dead workers and consumers hurt the economy

[Javaman]

16. probably hope hicks...

she's back to fuck up some more things.

[tblue37]

28. In 2018 he fired the entire chain of command of the agency that deals with pandemics. nt

[marlakay]

45. I guess its time to hire them back

I am sure even hating him they would to save the country.

[SWBTATTReg]

55. I'm sure that they are long gone, hired by private industry at probably better pay than the ...

government's. rump really messed up big time with this mass firings/redo of an dept., again, repugs doing some housecleaning to save a few cheap bucks so their rich donor friends could even get more money.

[Baitball Blogger]

5. Andromeda Strain option:

The virus may mutate and be less fatal, since the lethal versions will Darwin itself.

[ProfessorPlum]

7. that scenario works in situations where the virus kills the host too quickly to pass on

in this case, its quite clear that the host lives a long long time, infecting lots of other hosts, until they die.

[Baitball Blogger]

8. You're right. It will take a tremendous amount of sleuthing to find the

Patient Zeros that transfer it across borders and it will require massive supply and resource deployments and it will require a very pro-active CDC response team.

So, yes. I stand corrected. We're screwed.

[abqtommy]

9. Please go to the link posted here*: I think there's more hope than you're offering.

* https://www.democraticunderground.com/100213010755

[cherryinpa]

11. OMG

If this is true this is a disaster unfolding in front of us.

[Maeve]

15. Factcheck your "bioweapon" claim

https://www.factcheck.org/2020/02/baseless-conspiracy-theories-claim-new-coronavirus-was-bioengineered/

Full Story

The latest conspiracy theories about the new coronavirus, which first led to an outbreak in Wuhan, China in late 2019, allege that the virus was man-made, rather than the natural result of people coming into contact with wild animals.

We’ve seen similar claims before, but this time many claims are being fueled by an unpublished — and highly dubious — scientific paper. By delving into the genetic or protein sequences of the virus, many of these stories have an aura of scientific credibility. But scientists who study viruses say they are incorrect.

[defacto7]

35. Yeah. The coronavirus is pretty common in the environment

mostly in Asia and has been of little concern. But it mutates more easily than the flu viruses. So, no need for the manufactured claims for such a mutation to occur by itself relatively easily.

[Raven]

12. I'm wondering whether the pneumonia shot I got will

work against this virus.

[cherryinpa]

14. Prob need more

Might be a good time to load up on Antitoxidents like Vit-C, Greens etc.

Also regular fresh excercise but avoid indoor gyms and other people who might have it.

[ProfessorPlum]

21. please, reduce the amount of woo

antioxidants won't help pneumonia

[CountAllVotes]

18. It likely won't

They don't know they are dealing with IMO.

I heard if you are rh- you may be immune.

Any thought on this? Anyone???

[csziggy]

20. It won't protect against the virus

But it could help against opportunistic infections that cause complications such as pneumonia.

[Girard442]

27. Probably not the virus itself but might ward off opportunistic infections.

Hey, we’ll take anything we can get at this point.

[roamer65]

41. It may help if you have secondary bacterial pneumonia.

It would not for viral pneumonia.

[marlakay]

46. I heard it won't

And its a viral pneumonia not bacterial why regular drugs won’t work.

[LexVegas]

23. "the most likely scenario we are facing is in about two years from now, everyone will have had it"

Bullshit.

[maxsolomon]

25. Thank you.

There are a lot of people on this planet.

[defacto7]

32. A vaccine expected early 2021.

It's going to get around but not everyone in 2 years. That's not likely.

[Amishman]

24. Also persists on surfaces for up to a week

The slow progression makes it more dangerous on a macro level, not less.

[defacto7]

31. The vaccine is still on the track but not expected

for use until early 2021.

We should be able to vaccinate in less than the 2 years mentioned.

[totodeinhere]

33. So far I think that fatality rate is about 2.6%. That might not seem like a lot but it is.

The common flu has a rate of less than .01% yet even at that rate thousands die from it every year. So you can imagine how many will die if this coronavirus turns into a pandemic. Deaths will be in the millions. It's very scary.

[defacto7]

34. Just for the record, no pandemic has ever reached everyone.

Not the black plagues, not the Russian flu in the 19th century, not the Spanish flu 1918, not the Asian flu 1958, not the Hong Kong flu of 1968.
The worst last century was the 1918 flu which infected 650+ million people worldwide and killed between 50 and 100 million. But they didn't have the medical advancements or epidemic controls we have now. They also had WWI to exasperate the problem. The Hong Kong flu '68 killed 1 million worldwide but only 34,000 in the US. Of course COVID-19 isn't the flu.

We do need to prepare though and panic won't help.

[ProfessorPlum]

37. I'm advocating preparation and not panic

[defacto7]

39. I'm all for that.

I'm also starting to pull back from the virus threads. It looks like most people are getting the idea or they knew all along, I don't know. It's time for me to make sure my own ducks are in order. It's strange looking back and seeing this as possibly my 3rd maybe 4th pandemic. Life cycles you know. Be well.

[roamer65]

42. The 1918-1920 flu virus infected around 33 pct of the world's human population.

I doubt this virus will surpass it.

[defacto7]

43. I'm glad you have an answer.

I'll go with the possible 40% to 70% number being repeated by the experts. But I like your number better. This is not the Spanish flu though, little resemblance so who knows.

[roamer65]

44. I think those folks underestimate how much quarantining will suppress infection rates.

Plus medical technology has improved greatly over the past 100 years.

[ProfessorPlum]

58. I like your optimism on this

and yes, medicine has been modernized - much of that transition took place because of the 1918 flu. (See the book "The Great Influenza&quot

But modern air travel (which China never shut down) is a major game changer. Plus the fact that people seem to be asymptomatic for a _long_ time while they are still contagious. That's what makes this such that quaranting will only slow, not contain it.

[marlakay]

47. That was before travel was as

Common as today where we have millions of cars, airplanes, etc.

And before we bought products from overseas or most people bought them.

[roamer65]

40. The initial form of pneumonia is viral, not bacterial.

For many, antibiotics will be useless. The antibiotics will only help for cases of secondary bacterial pneumonia.

[pnwmom]

48. True, but most of the deaths are probably from secondary infections. n/t

[ProfessorPlum]

56. I'm fairly sure that is what I wrote

the virus kills by infecting the lungs which are then also susceptible to bacterial pneumonia,

[Kablooie]

53. Flu masks are sold out everywhere BUT....

Here is a website with a Chinese video from a Hong Kong hospital on how to make one out of paper towels. Might come in handy before long.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8006937/How-make-coronavirus-mask-Hong-Kong-officials-release-DIY-video.html

[ProfessorPlum]

57. remember, masks are only really useful when YOU are sick, and trying to protect others

not for keeping yourself safe before you are infected. For that, scrub your hands and stop touching your face, and stop touching things in public.

[duforsure]

54. trump will just use it

As a weapon against us, especially when they close in on him for his crimes.