Now 53 Cases in US as 4 Countries now have community driven Contagion

[berni_mccoy]

You’re likely to get the Coronavirus. That is the message by Dr. James Hamblen today in The Atlantic.

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/02/covid-vaccine/607000/

At this point, it is not even known how many people are infected. As of Sunday, there have been 35 confirmed cases in the U.S., according to the World Health Organization. But Lipsitch’s “very, very rough” estimate when we spoke a week ago (banking on “multiple assumptions piled on top of each other,” he said) was that 100 or 200 people in the U.S. were infected. That’s all it would take to seed the disease widely. The rate of spread would depend on how contagious the disease is in milder cases. On Friday, Chinese scientists reported in the medical journal JAMA an apparent case of asymptomatic spread of the virus, from a patient with a normal chest CT scan. The researchers concluded with stolid understatement that if this finding is not a bizarre abnormality, “the prevention of COVID-19 infection would prove challenging.”

That was this morning. 35 confirmed cases. And they suspected 100-200 then.

Tonight we are at confirmed 53 cases. https://nypost.com/2020/02/24/us-confirms-53-coronavirus-cases-including-evacuated-cruise-passengers/

Yesterday we were on the verge of a pandemic.

We are now there.

China, Japan, South Korea and now Italy have community spread contagion at this point.

We will not be able to contain it. It will infect millions. And currently the death-to-recovery ratio is right around 9%. It will send the global economy into a recession and maybe a depression. Travel and tourism will be the first impacted industries. Then industries that depend on trade. Other countries will not be able to put restrictions like China that has contained its rapid growth within China’s borders. So, like SARS and MERS, it will spread faster and have a higher mortality rate globally than in China. Despite all the efforts to contain this, we will either need to find a vaccine or this thing is going to burn itself out.

[defacto7]

1. Looks challenging alright.

Just prepare. Stock up on stuff just in case. Those over 62 have lived through 3 pandemics already if you count 2009.

[Newest Reality]

2. Nine-percent?

Hmmm. That is very high, isn't it?

The estimates on the Spanish Flu mortality rate were around 10-20%.

[berni_mccoy]

3. It's not the mortality rate which can't be determined until the disease runs its course

SARS Mortality Rate was indeed 9% globally. 6% in China.

This disease is exhibiting a 9% death-to-recovery rate. That is, if you take all the people who the disease has run its course through (died or recovered), 9% have died. That doesn’t mean that is the final mortality rate, which can only be determined after the disease has been either eliminated or run its course.

[SDANation]

4. 3% mortality rate overall

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/

Most of the deaths are in the elderly and those with preexisting conditions.

[berni_mccoy]

5. The actual mortality rate can't be determined

Because of the long contagious period of the disease with no symptoms (now known to be 4 weeks) and because the actual mortality rate can’t be determined until the disease has run its course. See the definition of Case Fatality Rate for more information: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Case_fatality_rate

[FBaggins]

6. Neither can your fictitious "death to recovery rate"

Yet (despite the dramatic change in that figure since you started using it) you keep citing it as though it were persuasive.

[Tipperary]

7. Now now.

We are all going to die, you see?

Doom and misery.

[FBaggins]

8. Speak for yourself

My personal death to years on the planet ratio declined below zero/half-a-century some time back... there's no statistical evidence that I'm going to die.

[Tipperary]

9. Sorry, should have used the sarcasm thingie lol.

I agree with you.

[Mike 03]

10. Are there people walking around now who have had this virus

and don't even know they had it, because for whatever reason they were able to fight it off?

We know that many carriers are asymptomatic for up to 14 days. But could your immune system fight it off so efficiently that you just thought you had a cold (but be spreading it to others)?