The mortality rate of 2% for 327.2 million people is over 6.5 million.

[skip fox]

I don't want to add to any panic, but with the reported death rate of Coronavirus, the United States could lose over 6.5 million people.

It's important to know what we're talking about. With the possibility of such a horrendous loss, we might multiply our efforts to contain it.

No cost should be spared in its containment if the mortality rate is what has been reported.

[Aviation Pro]

1. If all 327.2 million people are infected

Not everyone gets infected.

[lunatica]

4. The numbers are valid just for the perspective

It brings the gravity of it home.

[TwilightZone]

8. No, they really aren't.

Using numbers that have no legitimate basis is not helpful in the least.

[Under The Radar]

15. Correct! This situation calls for realistic data and not dramatic fear

[skip fox]

16. Four days ago you wrote:

"I am beginning to think that the disease is a tool to raise fear and reduce voter turnout."

I'd like to hear more if you're still of that mind.

[Under The Radar]

18. I did which is in the same vein that it's not being over dramatic

How many have the virus in the USA? High side estimate is 200? To make death estimates on 2% of 100% of the population getting the virus is a bit dramatic.

[skip fox]

22. Of course.

I just thought you knew something or suspected something.

The other post in the thread have wrestled with infection rate &c. My point, for what it's worth, is that it seems dire if even one-tenth as bad.

[Under The Radar]

24. I agree on caution

A friend sent a text that it was a ploy driven by the hand sanitizer industry.
Things get out of control like with a Ebola in 2014 where even Trump wanted to exaggerate the conditions to hurt Obama’s midterms.
https://crooksandliars.com/2020/02/time-travel-back-ebola-crisis-2014

[LiberalArkie]

35. At no time has a disease ever infected the entire population.

[TwilightZone]

2. That assumes that medical care is the same everywhere and that everyone gets infected.

Neither would be accurate assertions.

[skip fox]

10. An official of the CDC was on CNN yesterday and said

that the medical facilities (with respirators &c.) in China's Hubei Province are comparable to those in the United States.

I think it was Director Dr. Robert Redfield, but am not certain.

[MoonlitKnight]

45. Well, they probably make them

And most of the other medical equipment. They also make a lot of the pharmaceuticals.

[maxsolomon]

3. PANIC NOW.

[lunatica]

5. I'm not laughing.

I’m sure it’s even worse in underdeveloped countries. I appreciate the message you’re trying to get across.

[Turbineguy]

6. As long as the trump aparatchiks are not fully in charge...

we'll probably be OK.

Remember, anybody who gets up in front of the TV cameras and doesn't kiss trumps ass will get fired, so allow for that.

[Zeus69]

7. If every person in the US contracted the virus...

But they won’t.

For comparison, the case fatality rate with seasonal flu in the United States is less than 0.1% (1 death per every 1,000 cases).

Mortality rate for SARS was 10%, and for MERS 34%.

Virus Death Rate
Wuhan Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV): 2%*
SARS: 9.6%
MERS: 34%
Swine Flu: 0.02%

[defacto7]

25. Those numbers are not valid by themselves.

Without figuring in the infection rate they're meaningless. Which is worse, 1,000 infections with 100 dead (10%) or 100,000 infections with 1000 dead (1%)?
Example: Ebola has a low infection rate but high mortality 40-70%. 800 get infected 400+/- die. Seasonal flu 100 million infected at .01% 10,000 dead. You can put in guestimates of your own for covid but none really mean much except for speculation based on infection rate, recovered patients and deaths. None of these make sense without the others.

[skip fox]

30. But it is worth while to consider the worse case, right?

Other posts on this thread make your point and I take them all into account.

[defacto7]

32. I think speculation based on real statistics is fine

The worst case scenario is relative. Since so much is speculative I'd shoot for realistic. Honestly, the prognosis isn't very good but it's not the black death either. There's plenty we can do to prepare. Go ahead and do it. But there's a limit to what we can do and some can do very little. There is a best case scenario too. It could mutate itself out of existence. It's happened.

[csziggy]

33. Yesterday someone from Harvard said 40-70% would contract Covid

40% of 327.2 million = 130,880,000 infected. If the death rate is 2% that is 2,617600 dead.

70% of 327.2 million = 229,040,000 infected. 2% death rate = 45,808,000 dead.

Coronavirus outbreak edges closer to pandemic status
By Carolyn Y. Johnson, Lena H. Sun, William Wan and Joel Achenbach
Feb. 22, 2020 at 8:34 p.m. EST

Harvard epidemiologist Marc Lipsitch estimates that 40 to 70 percent of the human population could potentially be infected by the virus if it becomes pandemic. Not all of those people would get sick, he noted. The estimated death rate attributed to covid-19 — roughly 2 in 100 confirmed infections — may also drop over time as researchers get a better understanding of how widely the virus has spread.

More: https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/coronavirus-outbreak-edges-closer-to-pandemic/2020/02/21/03afafc0-5429-11ea-9e47-59804be1dcfb_story.html

Chances are the death rate will drop - if they drop to swine flu rates, that is equivalent to current flu death rates. Also, there is a strong possibility that this will join flu as a seasonal, recurring disease - every year a new mutation might sweep across the globe. While exposure to past versions may provide more resistance and reduce infection rates, it will add to the yearly flu deaths for those with weakened immune systems or existing respiratory problems.

[onenote]

50. 3700 people were confined in close quarters for an extended period on the Diamond Princess

Around 19 percent of them tested positive for the virus. That's a far cry from 40 - 70 percent. And of those infected, 0.7% (.0007) died.

[PTWB]

55. 45 million dead?! No.

[csziggy]

56. It's an extrapolation from the projections given by experts this week

I cited the sources for the figures I used. I did not pull the 40-70% infection rate and the 2% death rate out of thin air.

They hopefully will not be correct and the death rate will be much lower. But given the infection rate and death rate as currently observed, that is what might happen in a worst case scenario.

Of course, we do not know how accurate any of the information available is, goiven the reluctance of the governments involved to give out accurate data. Only after Covid-19 sweeps the world and the final tallies are in can we compute the actual infection and death rate - and even then they will be estimates based on whatever data is released by various governments.

[PTWB]

61. You must have meant four point five and not 45.

70% of 327.2 million = 229,040,000 infected. 2% death rate = 45,808,000 dead.

[csziggy]

62. Yes, I could be off

My stupid calculator won't do calculations in millions, so I was adding back decimals and could have gotten off.

1% of 229 million is 2.29 million so 2% is 4.58 million.

That is still a LOT of dead people if it comes to that.

[Wednesdays]

42. What was the infection percentage for the 1918 flu?

[Miguelito Loveless]

9. Worse, the number is actually 3.4%

Cases: 81,291
Death: 2,770

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

[The_jackalope]

49. Bingo. We're being flim-flammed with the 2% number.

[dewsgirl]

53. Indeed we are, I didn't want to say that here, I don't have

solid proof of it, many researchers believe this. They also keep pushing the elderly talking point, I keep seeing healthy doctors ranging in age from 20-50 dying in China.

[lapfog_1]

11. It depends greatly on age.

In the list of reported cases (john hopkins stats)... do you know how many under the age of 10 have died from corona virus - COVID19? maybe 100... maybe 200...

Nope... ZERO. That's right, 80,000 confirmed cases, with many children in that population, and none of them have died.

Over 60 with a pre-existing condition, especially something with the lungs... and you are looking at a fatality rate of 13 or 14 percent.

Overall... the actual now calculated fatality rate is 8.37 percent based on the outcomes of 33,081 confirmed cases who have either recovered or died.

That rate is likely to decline once the outcomes of another 77,000 cases are resolved. But it is likely higher than the original estimate of 2 or 2.5 percent.

327M people in the US are unlikely to be infected... even if it becomes a world wide pandemic.

but if 60% of us do become infected... or 196M... and the fatality rate remains 6%...

That is still 11,700,000 of us.

One bit of good news from the last 3 days... the rate of new confirmed infections does NOT exceed the rate of outcomes (survive and are clear of the virus or died)... meaning that today there are fewer people infected than there were 3 days ago. That is good... but there is a big IF that goes with it... IF the trend continues. OTOH, places like Iran might (if they actually report the truth) explode with new cases... or there may be even new "hot spots".

[skip fox]

14. Hell, I'm 73 and have had 2 heart attacks, lung operation, etc.

But it's great to hear children are living.

[Coventina]

19. IKR? I keep seeing on DU that this doesn't matter because only the elderly or those with

pre-existing conditions will die.

Well, hell, that's most of DU, if the recent poll on DUer's ages is to be believed.

[csziggy]

34. Oh, it's only 3-15% of us

As someone over 65 who tends to get complications from anything that attacks the respiratory system, I'm paying attention, but I am not panicking.

[lapfog_1]

46. I hear ya...

in the same boat.

And even though the probability is small... I went out in the last few days and bought around 60 days worth of canned goods and dry goods. Plus water.

I work from home a lot... so, if there are a number of cases (more than we have now) in the Bay Area of California... I am prepared to go 60 days or more with little to no physical contact with people (This virus is sneaky... often people are infectious without ever showing any symptoms... so they could make someone else sick without even knowing that they might be sick them selves). If I was 30 and in perfect health... I wouldn't be worried at all.

Eventually I will eat the canned goods anyway... so it's not like I just bought this as an insurance policy.

[skip fox]

12. I hear we have trouble measuring the mortality rate because of un-reported cases:

those people who contract the virus, don't realize it is such, never report it, and get better.

That would make the death rate lower.

Yellow fever was 5%.

One poster is right, not everyone will be infected. But even if we lose only 1/10th of that, The death of over a half million people is devastating.

[dewsgirl]

13. Indeed it is, all these people quoting flu statistics continually

should take notice.

[defacto7]

17. Example of how this measurment is out of skew...

Hong Kong Flu pandemic 1968:
1 million deaths worldwide
34,000 deaths in the US

This shows how pandemics don't follow early statistcs and are not equal across the population.

The death rates are not calculated on the size of the population. They are calculated on the number of confirmed infections.

The figures they use during a pandemic are based on the number of deaths among patients with an outcome, recovered + dead as a percentage.

Mortality rates cannot be calculated until the epidemic is over.

[skip fox]

23. Points taken.

[gibraltar72]

20. Bring out your dead!

[MyNameGoesHere]

21. This infodemic won't get me! I am protected

For casual walking around



For going to work or looting if needed.

[underthematrix]

26. Since we have a criminal and traitor in the WH, what are

YOU doing to protect yourself and your family.

Here's what me and my family are doing.

We have frozen meals for 30 days.
We are stocking up on bottled water.
We have batteries and flashlights and lanterns
We do not use any public spaces or public transportation or attend public gatherings
We shop for food once a week
We do not dine out
We avoid any and all fast food restaurants and deli sections
We do not have any visitors to our home and we do not visit other people
Our prescriptions are filled by mail
We follow all instructions of our healthcare team to avoid unnecessary visits to a healthcare facility.
We take DAILY 1/2 hour walks in our neighborhood because we like it. It's part of our healthy lifestyle plan and it helps to keep our neighborhood safe.
Finally
We DO NOT listen or watch anything the#TraitorTrump's admin says about the virus or anything else. Maddow provides the MOST accurate information on the virus and its spread.

[skip fox]

27. Wow. Under the Matrix sounds Beyond the Matrix!

And all I did was buy a case of beer.

[underthematrix]

31. Hey, I'm realistic and practical. And I still have the power to

control what I do.

[Sucha NastyWoman]

54. I spent the night in ICU because my brother.had3 heart attacks yesterday

Glad to be here because I didn’t think he would make it till I got here, but he seems to be doing ok for now, considering what he’s been through. Fortunately the first one was at his PCPs office, so they had paddles available, and the other two were at the hospital

Anyway I didn’t sleep much last night and was thinking about how scary it would be to work in a hospital right now. They must worry that they could get infected and then take it home to their families. My daughter is a nurse working at 2 different hospitals so she is pretty vulnerable if this thing starts getting out of hand.

[EndlessWire]

43. LOL! n/t

[Greybnk48]

40. We just started stocking up food today.

We're doing much of what you mentioned, starting today. No dining out, no deli food, no fast food, scripts are by mail (90 day supply), water in the basement if needed.

We're cancelling outings in public places and trying to cut back on trips to the store.

Lots of hand-sanitizer and soap washing.

[underthematrix]

44. Kudos. we have to take the initiative because our government is gone.

[PoindexterOglethorpe]

28. For pity's sake.

Every single person is not going to be infected.

The 2% mortality rate currently being seen is based on people at least seen and diagnosed, and may actually be based on numbers of those hospitalized. There is a much larger unknown number of people who've been exposed and been at best only mildly ill. So the actual death rate is something less than 2%.

Even the Spanish flu, which is held up as a genuine horror pandemic that we all need to fear a repeat of, killed fewer than 1% of the population. Only about 28% of the population even got it. Why on earth would you think everyone will get the corona virus?

Somewhere else here on DU someone said that 1 in 20 of us is going to die from this, which is truly nonsensical.

[skip fox]

29. The other posts spell these things out in some detail.

[bearsfootball516]

36. DU doesn't have a great track record when it comes to these things.

The amount of "OMG WE'RE ALL GONNA DIE" posts I've seen recently is astounding.

[skip fox]

38. There were thousands of years of "The earth is ending" movements,

that doesn't mean that humanity will continue at all much less in the manner to which we've become accustomed.

You're absolutely right, of course, but if this time we do get a yellow-fever level of destruction, and that seems possible, then the past will not have been an adequate predictor of the present.

So . . . I hope your implication (that there is not a great reason to believe the worse case) is correct, but we should allow for the possibility that this time the reason for anxiety is real.

[tandem5]

37. 2% is an approximation of the reported case mortality rate...

This loosely represents people that either self reported because they felt sick enough to go to the hospital or who were discovered via a screening process that makes no attempt to canvass an entire population. One can make the argument that the reported case mortality rate is semi proportional to the overall mortality rate which includes everyone who got sick including those that didn't report symptoms. This virtually unverifiable number can be orders of magnitude smaller than case mortality rate.

You have other factors including the effectiveness of transmission over a population which can vary due to such things as demographics, population density, and infrastructure which simply means only a percentage of the total population gets infected.

So crudely, it's some percent of ~2% that impacts some percent of an overall population.

[skip fox]

39. Good point. The best is that

if cases of Coronavirus survivors go unreported, that makes the death rate lower, although I wonder how many deaths may have been attributed to something other than the virus.

[Takket]

41. Cool story. How many die if we all get Ebola?

[Renew Deal]

48. A lot more than that.

[Renew Deal]

47. Does everyone catch it?

I thought the number was 60-80%

[onenote]

63. Of the 3700 people aboard the Diamond Princess, only 19 percent tested positive

So an estimate of 60-80 percent contracting the virus seems farfetched.

[former9thward]

51. If a meteor the size of Texas hits the earth we are all doomed.

Exactly the same chance of that happening as what you are proposing.

[skip fox]

57. I was proposing nothing . . . Just runnign the numbers

for a worse case scenario. I thought it useful.

[former9thward]

58. Do you do that for every other disease that is out there?

If not, why not?

[skip fox]

60. I don't understand the implicit accusation

nor do I respond to the ill tempered.

[LanternWaste]

64. Kinda like "if you value your puppy, you won't get them vaccinated", eh?

Your consistent use of non sequiturs are bemusing yet little more... but as long as they allow one the pretense of cleverness, why not, eh?

[AGeddy]

59. It would mean 140 million people worldwide.

That's a holocaust of epic proportions.