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mpreorder

(51 posts)
Fri Feb 28, 2020, 10:57 AM Feb 2020

Why isn't this on the front page of EVERY FUCKING PAPER??

The Trump administration has barred the top US disease expert from speaking freely to the public after he warned the coronavirus may be impossible to contain

https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-anthony-fauci-trump-admin-stops-discussion-2020-2?utm_source=reddit.com

This motherfucker is going to cost lives!! This virus is serious folks. One epidemiologist is estimating 40-70% of the worlds population will be infected. Current estimates are 2-3% mortality. Some scientists are speculating it may be transmissible not just through respiratory secretions but that it may live off a human for some time - you may get it from a faucet or doorknob for example. We already know it's transmissible when the infected person does NOT have any symptoms. Like many viruses this is likely to cause deaths in those with already weakened immune systems, the elderly, and the very young.

Please, please educate yourselves, because our government isn't going to. You'll know when it gets close, so wash your hands, avoid public places if you can, stock up on food and medicine, etc, etc.

This fucking asshole of a president is only concerned about the markets response and how it will affect his re-election chances. I'm so fucking mad about this I can barely contain myself. THIS is what the next debate should be about - have Elizabeth excoriate dTump and the complicit media. Let the American people realize it's the Dems that have their best interests at heart and base their actions on evidence, not ideology.

I know we are in the very early stages of this, and I hope things don't go as far as some fear. But, like climate change, the cost of inaction is just to high not to prepare.

Take care.....
90 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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Why isn't this on the front page of EVERY FUCKING PAPER?? (Original Post) mpreorder Feb 2020 OP
This message was self-deleted by its author democratisphere Feb 2020 #1
Were that this were true. Caliman73 Feb 2020 #68
This message was self-deleted by its author democratisphere Feb 2020 #69
Somehow this is going far worse than I even imagined. dewsgirl Feb 2020 #2
Republicans: Well it's not like it is a high crime and misdemeanor WyattKansas Feb 2020 #3
republicans: the cure for covid-19 clearly is a big tax cut for rich people! unblock Feb 2020 #10
Of course. WyattKansas Feb 2020 #16
He is not Incompetent he is a Super Republican StClone Feb 2020 #41
Incompetence is the hallmark of a competent Republican. n/t Beartracks Feb 2020 #87
I can hear Dershowitz now Proud Liberal Dem Feb 2020 #48
I'm concerned we got rid of paper towels in favor of those filthy Dyson Blues Heron Feb 2020 #4
just wipe your wet hands on your clothes IronLionZion Feb 2020 #13
That's what I do! nt WhiskeyWulf Feb 2020 #78
the jury's still out on that one. unblock Feb 2020 #20
it's not that theyre not cleaned - it's the design Blues Heron Feb 2020 #28
Bring your own paper towels. Crunchy Frog Feb 2020 #84
Just put some paper towels in the bathroom like there used to be Blues Heron Feb 2020 #88
Almost fifty years ago in the first restaurant in town that got an air dryer csziggy Feb 2020 #24
I've never used them. Ms. Toad Feb 2020 #30
I use the paper towels not only to dry my hands StarryNite Feb 2020 #33
me too - if they have them. So many have gone dryer-only Blues Heron Feb 2020 #44
I bring my own paper towels. 2naSalit Feb 2020 #36
Mythbusters did an episode on this MoonlitKnight Feb 2020 #52
We hate those damn germ blowers! Baked Potato Feb 2020 #58
Deposition of Bacteria and Bacterial Spores by Bathroom Hot-Air Hand Dryers Marcuse Feb 2020 #75
Deposition of Bacteria and Bacterial Spores by Bathroom Hot-Air Hand Dryers Marcuse Feb 2020 #76
I actually was thinking that today when I used one but I did wash my hands a long time and lunasun Feb 2020 #79
When he's out of office he should be charged with negligent homicide njhoneybadger Feb 2020 #5
Is Purell in the Dow Jones? CaptYossarian Feb 2020 #6
Gojo is a privately held company. Pacifist Patriot Feb 2020 #63
I remember Gojo from shop class a hundred years ago. CaptYossarian Feb 2020 #72
We are officially an 1960s Iron Curtain dictatorship. ffr Feb 2020 #7
Hedge funds are taking care of it for them jayschool2013 Feb 2020 #11
You WON'T know when it gets close lostnfound Feb 2020 #8
This, bloody THIS. Grokenstein Feb 2020 #15
and now thay are finding it in peoples pets that were infected & have no idea if animals can infect yaesu Feb 2020 #9
Where is that info on pets from? wnylib Feb 2020 #51
Schzwen was shut down for 3 weeks, I'm finding this out by first uponit7771 Feb 2020 #53
Go to BBC website coverage of covid 19. wnylib Feb 2020 #59
+1, dumb Donald let the virus spread here uponit7771 Feb 2020 #62
His refusal to keep Americans updated wnylib Feb 2020 #65
He'll declare a state of emergency and suspend the 1st amendment IronLionZion Feb 2020 #12
Think about this, gab13by13 Feb 2020 #18
I worry about them going through voter registrations IronLionZion Feb 2020 #22
Plus the census... people going door to door? JudyM Feb 2020 #73
Oh geezuss.... Chakaconcarne Feb 2020 #46
In WA State, we vote by mail. Haggis for Breakfast Feb 2020 #82
Orwellian isn't it? MissMillie Feb 2020 #14
Yes and Farenheit 451, gab13by13 Feb 2020 #19
All the more reason why we should have transitioned to having healthcare as a right area51 Feb 2020 #17
Attacking the truth duforsure Feb 2020 #21
meanwhile the right/trump/republicons control messaging from 1500 major radio stations certainot Feb 2020 #23
Narcissists are too dangerous to be in charge: Ilsa Feb 2020 #25
True Paul-EM Feb 2020 #45
Yeah the press needs to step up its game Joinfortmill Feb 2020 #26
You know why. LakeArenal Feb 2020 #27
Including and especially daily newspapers Fritz Walter Feb 2020 #54
It should be interesting to see Evangelicals squawk about "God's plan" as they drop dead from the Pepsidog Feb 2020 #29
Maybe it's "God's plan" that they drop dead from the virus? calimary Feb 2020 #34
Well, if it IS the rapture for them... 2naSalit Feb 2020 #37
HRC was right when she said if this man becomes president he will be tested with a serious crisis. CrispyQ Feb 2020 #31
The mortality rate is NOT 2-3% overall. It is more in the range of 0.02% 2/100ths of a %). Pobeka Feb 2020 #32
Are you sure about that number? wnylib Feb 2020 #56
Math refresher on percent. wnylib Feb 2020 #60
population of approx 11 million in Wuhan city alone. Pobeka Feb 2020 #74
You are comparing the number of wnylib Feb 2020 #80
Yes Pobeka Feb 2020 #89
Kudlow was just on cnbc saying no one being muzzled. Laura PourMeADrink Feb 2020 #35
That confirms that they are then. ...nt 2naSalit Feb 2020 #38
That's how I took it. Pacifist Patriot Feb 2020 #64
News event last night indicated all govt communication to be vetted by Pence. Pobeka Feb 2020 #39
Anthony Fauci head of NIH won't stand for it. He'll speak out. YOHABLO Feb 2020 #40
I'm convinced these assholes will bring back the plague to "own the libs". Initech Feb 2020 #42
And I am convinced their followers STILL wouldn't care... Moostache Feb 2020 #47
Yes, I once contracted the Coxsackie B Virus. Tucker08087 Feb 2020 #43
I have first-hand account that nearly a hundred million people in China were quarantined for 20 days uponit7771 Feb 2020 #57
Conspiracy theory ( not that I have not thought of it myself.) Doreen Feb 2020 #49
The handling of this crisis will be Trump's Katrina. nt oasis Feb 2020 #50
Trump will blame JFK, his minions will believe him uponit7771 Feb 2020 #55
To put this in perspective... Pacifist Patriot Feb 2020 #61
Current mortality is 3.42% AllyCat Feb 2020 #66
With those numbers, the math says... TXPaganBanker Feb 2020 #67
Man there are a lot of new posters whose hairs are on fire about all sorts of things. WhiskeyGrinder Feb 2020 #70
Not on fire, just concerned. Aussie105 Feb 2020 #71
Oh heck... TXPaganBanker Feb 2020 #86
what I heard bern2020 Feb 2020 #77
"40-70% of the worlds population"? agalisgv Feb 2020 #81
Harvard epidemiologist Marc Lipsitch, advises the CDC TXPaganBanker Feb 2020 #85
Thanks agalisgv Mar 2020 #90
If those numbers prove true, we may see 100 million fatalities. tclambert Feb 2020 #83

Response to mpreorder (Original post)

Caliman73

(11,767 posts)
68. Were that this were true.
Fri Feb 28, 2020, 06:47 PM
Feb 2020

Trump is doing what he always does. He is casting doubt on reality. He is casting doubt on expertise. There was an interesting video from Vox about Putin and Trump's use of Firehose Lies. In fact. I will just put this here. It is an interesting idea about Trump's use of lies.

Response to Caliman73 (Reply #68)

WyattKansas

(1,648 posts)
3. Republicans: Well it's not like it is a high crime and misdemeanor
Fri Feb 28, 2020, 11:09 AM
Feb 2020

Republican follow up: So what if he is incompetent to be President.

This country is now bat shit loony.

WyattKansas

(1,648 posts)
16. Of course.
Fri Feb 28, 2020, 11:31 AM
Feb 2020

Trump and Republicans first order of business... 'How can we profit from this.' (Their only solution)

StClone

(11,869 posts)
41. He is not Incompetent he is a Super Republican
Fri Feb 28, 2020, 12:41 PM
Feb 2020

Trump is doing what Rs have always been doing just faster, more explicitly and with more help. Conservative/Republicanism has always been a danger to life, the environment and the enemy of reality: https://www.alternet.org/2020/02/how-conservatism-could-kill-us-all/

Blues Heron

(8,837 posts)
4. I'm concerned we got rid of paper towels in favor of those filthy Dyson
Fri Feb 28, 2020, 11:15 AM
Feb 2020

contraptions. The nastiness that exudes from those germ-spreaders is truly vile. The new ones that are actually in the faucet itself seem designed to spread disease. Literally a blast of hot air jets down into the filthy public sink and sprays sink water right into your face in aerosolized form. SMH



IronLionZion

(51,267 posts)
13. just wipe your wet hands on your clothes
Fri Feb 28, 2020, 11:29 AM
Feb 2020

soap is better than hand sanitizer, but it's good to carry some hand sanitizer as backup

unblock

(56,198 posts)
20. the jury's still out on that one.
Fri Feb 28, 2020, 11:42 AM
Feb 2020

what is clear is that the far bigger risks are
a) not washing hands at all
b) not washing properly (soap on wet hands, 20 seconds minimum vigorous scrubbing)
c) not drying thoroughly (40 seconds minimum on the air dryers -- annoying when some of them time out at 30 seconds).
d) after all that, touching the filthy bathroom door handle.

it is true that the air dryers need to be maintained and cleaned properly and regularly, and likely many are not. that said, it's not clear that whatever negative effects the air dryers have outweigh the positives.


note also that ordinary paper towels are not germ-free either.

Blues Heron

(8,837 posts)
28. it's not that theyre not cleaned - it's the design
Fri Feb 28, 2020, 12:02 PM
Feb 2020

you have to stick your wet hands in that nasty opening. Hard to avoid touching it. The rinse water is then aerosolized - and you breath it from the previous occupant. The new sink blaster ones are just truly on a vile level that is incomprehensible to me.

I hope they bring back paper towels - they're just better all the way around. How do you dry your face with a dyson?

Blues Heron

(8,837 posts)
88. Just put some paper towels in the bathroom like there used to be
Sat Feb 29, 2020, 08:25 AM
Feb 2020

the emphasis now needs to be on hygiene instead of saving paper. They have recycled ones - not sure why we eliminated them in the first place.

csziggy

(34,189 posts)
24. Almost fifty years ago in the first restaurant in town that got an air dryer
Fri Feb 28, 2020, 11:59 AM
Feb 2020

Someone scratched onto the plate with the instructions an extra step.

The instructions had steps such as:
1. Press button.
2. Rub hands together briskly.
3. Repeat until hands are dry.

The added step was:
4. Dry your hands on your jeans.

I simply don't have the patience to use most air dryers. Since it came out that they pretty much just blow germs around, I don't use them much anymore. Mostly I just use that last step - dry my hands on my jeans.

Ms. Toad

(38,637 posts)
30. I've never used them.
Fri Feb 28, 2020, 12:07 PM
Feb 2020

In a pinch I use toilet paper (when it is in a container with the opening facing down, below the spray level of the toilet)

StarryNite

(12,115 posts)
33. I use the paper towels not only to dry my hands
Fri Feb 28, 2020, 12:10 PM
Feb 2020

but to open the door to get out of the restroom so I don't have to touch the filthy handle. Then I toss it in the first garbage can I see.

Blues Heron

(8,837 posts)
44. me too - if they have them. So many have gone dryer-only
Fri Feb 28, 2020, 12:49 PM
Feb 2020

Starbucks for one. Gross bathrooms.

2naSalit

(102,789 posts)
36. I bring my own paper towels.
Fri Feb 28, 2020, 12:21 PM
Feb 2020

I keep a roll handy in the car and put three or four on my pocket if I have to use a public bathroom. I use the kind that are more like cheap dinner napkins, they are soft enough to work as TP when none is available or is the kind that disintegrates on contact with moisture of any kind... I won't use that stuff, and one sheet is enough for almost anything including blowing your nose when you would normally use several tissues.

Baked Potato

(7,733 posts)
58. We hate those damn germ blowers!
Fri Feb 28, 2020, 02:00 PM
Feb 2020

The walls around them are grey and brown from the filth. I use the toilet covers or a ball of TP when there are no paper towels.

Marcuse

(9,010 posts)
75. Deposition of Bacteria and Bacterial Spores by Bathroom Hot-Air Hand Dryers
Fri Feb 28, 2020, 10:54 PM
Feb 2020
[div class="excerpt" ABSTRACT

Hot-air hand dryers in multiple men's and women's bathrooms in three basic science research areas in an academic health center were screened for their deposition on plates of (i) total bacteria, some of which were identified, and (ii) a kanamycin-resistant Bacillus subtilis strain, PS533, spores of which are produced in large amounts in one basic science research laboratory. Plates exposed to hand dryer air for 30 s averaged 18 to 60 colonies/plate; but interior hand dryer nozzle surfaces had minimal bacterial levels, plates exposed to bathroom air for 2 min with hand dryers off averaged ≤1 colony, and plates exposed to bathroom air moved by a small fan for 20 min had averages of 15 and 12 colonies/plate in two buildings tested. Retrofitting hand dryers with HEPA filters reduced bacterial deposition by hand dryers ∼4-fold, and potential human pathogens were recovered from plates exposed to hand dryer air whether or not a HEPA filter was present and from bathroom air moved by a small fan. Spore-forming colonies, identified as B. subtilis PS533, averaged ∼2.5 to 5% of bacteria deposited by hand dryers throughout the basic research areas examined regardless of distance from the spore-forming laboratory, and these were almost certainly deposited as spores. Comparable results were obtained when bathroom air was sampled for spores. These results indicate that many kinds of bacteria, including potential pathogens and spores, can be deposited on hands exposed to bathroom hand dryers and that spores could be dispersed throughout buildings and deposited on hands by hand dryers.

IMPORTANCE While there is evidence that bathroom hand dryers can disperse bacteria from hands or deposit bacteria on surfaces, including recently washed hands, there is less information on (i) the organisms dispersed by hand dryers, (ii) whether hand dryers provide a reservoir of bacteria or simply blow large amounts of bacterially contaminated air, and (iii) whether bacterial spores are deposited on surfaces by hand dryers. Consequently, this study has implications for the control of opportunistic bacterial pathogens and spores in public environments including health care settings. Within a large building, potentially pathogenic bacteria, including bacterial spores, may travel between rooms, and subsequent bacterial/spore deposition by hand dryers is a possible mechanism for spread of infectious bacteria, including spores of potential pathogens if present.

Marcuse

(9,010 posts)
76. Deposition of Bacteria and Bacterial Spores by Bathroom Hot-Air Hand Dryers
Fri Feb 28, 2020, 11:00 PM
Feb 2020
https://aem.asm.org/content/84/8/e00044-18|

ABSTRACT
Hot-air hand dryers in multiple men's and women's bathrooms in three basic science research areas in an academic health center were screened for their deposition on plates of (i) total bacteria, some of which were identified, and (ii) a kanamycin-resistant Bacillus subtilis strain, PS533, spores of which are produced in large amounts in one basic science research laboratory. Plates exposed to hand dryer air for 30 s averaged 18 to 60 colonies/plate; but interior hand dryer nozzle surfaces had minimal bacterial levels, plates exposed to bathroom air for 2 min with hand dryers off averaged ≤1 colony, and plates exposed to bathroom air moved by a small fan for 20 min had averages of 15 and 12 colonies/plate in two buildings tested. Retrofitting hand dryers with HEPA filters reduced bacterial deposition by hand dryers ∼4-fold, and potential human pathogens were recovered from plates exposed to hand dryer air whether or not a HEPA filter was present and from bathroom air moved by a small fan. Spore-forming colonies, identified as B. subtilis PS533, averaged ∼2.5 to 5% of bacteria deposited by hand dryers throughout the basic research areas examined regardless of distance from the spore-forming laboratory, and these were almost certainly deposited as spores. Comparable results were obtained when bathroom air was sampled for spores. These results indicate that many kinds of bacteria, including potential pathogens and spores, can be deposited on hands exposed to bathroom hand dryers and that spores could be dispersed throughout buildings and deposited on hands by hand dryers.

IMPORTANT: While there is evidence that bathroom hand dryers can disperse bacteria from hands or deposit bacteria on surfaces, including recently washed hands, there is less information on (i) the organisms dispersed by hand dryers, (ii) whether hand dryers provide a reservoir of bacteria or simply blow large amounts of bacterially contaminated air, and (iii) whether bacterial spores are deposited on surfaces by hand dryers. Consequently, this study has implications for the control of opportunistic bacterial pathogens and spores in public environments including health care settings. Within a large building, potentially pathogenic bacteria, including bacterial spores, may travel between rooms, and subsequent bacterial/spore deposition by hand dryers is a possible mechanism for spread of infectious bacteria, including spores of potential pathogens if present.

lunasun

(21,646 posts)
79. I actually was thinking that today when I used one but I did wash my hands a long time and
Fri Feb 28, 2020, 11:25 PM
Feb 2020

it was on the wall but still a blast back

CaptYossarian

(6,448 posts)
72. I remember Gojo from shop class a hundred years ago.
Fri Feb 28, 2020, 08:46 PM
Feb 2020

Probably the last time I thought of it.

That's a pre-requisite for being in business today--making false claims and price gouging.

ffr

(23,398 posts)
7. We are officially an 1960s Iron Curtain dictatorship.
Fri Feb 28, 2020, 11:21 AM
Feb 2020

The news will be controlled by the state.

Grokenstein

(6,356 posts)
15. This, bloody THIS.
Fri Feb 28, 2020, 11:30 AM
Feb 2020

The people spreading it around don't even know they have it for up to two weeks.

And the Orange Anus sent those infected cruise passengers to CA and TX over the objections (as usual) of sane people. The only question is, did he do it out of incompetence and arrogance, or was he just following orders?

yaesu

(9,327 posts)
9. and now thay are finding it in peoples pets that were infected & have no idea if animals can infect
Fri Feb 28, 2020, 11:22 AM
Feb 2020

us, this shit is getting into sci fi territory.

wnylib

(26,009 posts)
51. Where is that info on pets from?
Fri Feb 28, 2020, 01:34 PM
Feb 2020

All medical sources I have read say that pets like domestic dogs and cats do not get it from people and do not transmit it to people. They advise caution with wild animals, but generally, viruses do not cross from one species to another.

This virus started with animals but it mutated before becoming transmissable to people. That mutated form does not affect household pets.



wnylib

(26,009 posts)
59. Go to BBC website coverage of covid 19.
Fri Feb 28, 2020, 02:03 PM
Feb 2020

They give a lot of info on transmission rates, death rates, how it is transmitted, how to protect yourself, and they have a Q & A section that includes the question about animal transmussion.. Brits are better at informing the general public.

wnylib

(26,009 posts)
65. His refusal to keep Americans updated
Fri Feb 28, 2020, 02:32 PM
Feb 2020

on the facts not only endangers our lives, livelihoods, economy, and daily way of life, but also creates a vacuum of accurate information that gets filled in by inaccurate rumors and suspicions.

So I go to reliable foreign sources like BBC and the Guardian. Both have good coverage.

IronLionZion

(51,267 posts)
12. He'll declare a state of emergency and suspend the 1st amendment
Fri Feb 28, 2020, 11:28 AM
Feb 2020

along with as many other abuses of power they can think of

IronLionZion

(51,267 posts)
22. I worry about them going through voter registrations
Fri Feb 28, 2020, 11:47 AM
Feb 2020

and mass quarantining Dems. Going through urban or minority neighborhoods to mass quarantine anyone who looks like a Dem, especially in swing states.

Chakaconcarne

(2,787 posts)
46. Oh geezuss....
Fri Feb 28, 2020, 01:20 PM
Feb 2020

You had bring this up....

I can see it happening.... FFS.

and guess which areas would more likely find the higher risk to congregate? Urban, progressive areas.

Haggis for Breakfast

(6,831 posts)
82. In WA State, we vote by mail.
Sat Feb 29, 2020, 12:08 AM
Feb 2020

This is an idea whose time has come. This is just one of many reasons why mail-in voting is superior to voting booths.

gab13by13

(32,318 posts)
19. Yes and Farenheit 451,
Fri Feb 28, 2020, 11:42 AM
Feb 2020

but it is even evolving into Huxley's "A Brave New World." People must conform, must all be alike, deviants will be exiled or worse.

area51

(12,691 posts)
17. All the more reason why we should have transitioned to having healthcare as a right
Fri Feb 28, 2020, 11:32 AM
Feb 2020

many years ago. Currently many people can't afford to see a doctor, and can't afford the expense of an ambulance. Also, companies can fire you for taking time off due to illness & aren't mandated to offer sickdays.

We need comprehensive Medicare for All.

The issue with a public option.



duforsure

(11,885 posts)
21. Attacking the truth
Fri Feb 28, 2020, 11:47 AM
Feb 2020

Trumps doing a good impression of communist Kim by attacking free speech, and preventing the truth from exposing what a failure he and his administration are. Trump lied from the start by saying it was contained and going good, when it's not. The market shows they have no confidence in his statements too.

Fritz Walter

(4,370 posts)
54. Including and especially daily newspapers
Fri Feb 28, 2020, 01:47 PM
Feb 2020

Most of the major dailies have been bought out by holding companies and other corporate entities. Consequently, the editorial decisions -- including what appears on the front pages -- are made in absentia by officials who place corporate/political interests way above what the public should know, and has a right to know.

The journalism principles I learned 40+ years ago have not stood the test of time. But we still have our own voices, and we must pick up the slack to get out the vote in 8 months!

Pepsidog

(6,365 posts)
29. It should be interesting to see Evangelicals squawk about "God's plan" as they drop dead from the
Fri Feb 28, 2020, 12:04 PM
Feb 2020

virus and yell and scream about medicare for all and “socialism”.

calimary

(90,017 posts)
34. Maybe it's "God's plan" that they drop dead from the virus?
Fri Feb 28, 2020, 12:14 PM
Feb 2020

But then, they’d probably claim it’s the “Rapture.”

2naSalit

(102,789 posts)
37. Well, if it IS the rapture for them...
Fri Feb 28, 2020, 12:30 PM
Feb 2020

So be it. The sooner they either wake us and see their asses on fire the better. And if they aren't able to see it, let them go to wherever it is they think they are going. It could make cleaning up this mess a little easier without all the opposition.

CrispyQ

(40,969 posts)
31. HRC was right when she said if this man becomes president he will be tested with a serious crisis.
Fri Feb 28, 2020, 12:08 PM
Feb 2020

I'll bet the 1% were thinking "nukes" and that can't/won't happen here. Oops! Not nukes, but bacteria! And germs don't care how much money you have in your bank account. Now wouldn't it be nice if we had someone serious in office? Someone who hadn't taken a hatchet to our institutions the past three years, and filled serious posts with unqualified, ass-kissing suck-ups? Opps again.

And to think the republican controlled Senate had a chance to rid our nation of this menace a few weeks ago and they didn't. SHAME.

Pobeka

(5,006 posts)
32. The mortality rate is NOT 2-3% overall. It is more in the range of 0.02% 2/100ths of a %).
Fri Feb 28, 2020, 12:10 PM
Feb 2020

No statistics for *entire* populations get you anywhere close to 2 or 3 %.

The 2-3% number comes from those who are showing symptoms bad enough to see a doctor.

It is still a serious disease for those at risk (older, younger, already with compromised immune systems).

Certainly containment/quarantine has helped a lot in Hubei province (where I base my 0.02% number), but it is unknown how effective containment has been.

Even if containment was able to reduce the infections by half, we'd still see an overall mortality rate of 0.04%.



wnylib

(26,009 posts)
56. Are you sure about that number?
Fri Feb 28, 2020, 01:55 PM
Feb 2020

I think the raw nunber from dividing deaths by the number infected comes out to 0.02 with a remainder that rounds up to 3.0.

0.02, when converted to % is 2%.

wnylib

(26,009 posts)
60. Math refresher on percent.
Fri Feb 28, 2020, 02:21 PM
Feb 2020

0.20 = 20/100 or 20%
0.02 = 2/100 or 2%
0.002 = 2/1000 or 0.02% (2/100 of 1%)

The numbers are not entirely reliable, but from what we have, dividing the number of reported deaths by tge number of reported infections yields a number between 2% and 3%.

.
0.02% would be 1/5 of 1%, which would be lower than the flu, lower thsn SARS. But we already know that the death rate from covid 19 exceeds that of SARS.

Pobeka

(5,006 posts)
74. population of approx 11 million in Wuhan city alone.
Fri Feb 28, 2020, 10:33 PM
Feb 2020

There are 2600 or so deaths in the entire hubei provence, it is 2600/11000000. or a proportion of 0.00023634

That makes a percent of 0.023634. The number would be lower if I used (or knew rather), the population of the entire hubei provence

wnylib

(26,009 posts)
80. You are comparing the number of
Fri Feb 28, 2020, 11:31 PM
Feb 2020

deaths to total population of the region, whether infected or not.

I was referring to the mortality rate of the disease itself, as in the number of infected persons. who die, vs the number of infected persons who recover. The rate of death among infected people is between 2% and 3%.

Pobeka

(5,006 posts)
89. Yes
Sat Feb 29, 2020, 09:55 AM
Feb 2020

Yes, the 2-3% number is correct for *confirmed* cases is correct (call them group A) ). There are three other groups:

B) infected, but not sick enough to show symptoms requiring a medical visit (thus they are not confirmed infected, and remain out of group A),
C) exposed but not infected, which could mean they have natural immunity
D) were never exposed.

If this is a normal virus, the size of (B+C+D) dwarfs the size of A, and I'm not trying to say I know what the numbers actually are, not does it matter for the overall population mortality.



This is what's important to me:

I believe when people see 2-3%, they are thinking 1 of every 50 or 33 people they know are going to die from coronavirus, which is radically wrong.

I'm only trying to be clear about that number.

Pobeka

(5,006 posts)
39. News event last night indicated all govt communication to be vetted by Pence.
Fri Feb 28, 2020, 12:37 PM
Feb 2020

Kudlow is telling a disingenuous lie.

 

YOHABLO

(7,358 posts)
40. Anthony Fauci head of NIH won't stand for it. He'll speak out.
Fri Feb 28, 2020, 12:39 PM
Feb 2020

They try to stifle him, and it's an end game for Trump.

Moostache

(11,178 posts)
47. And I am convinced their followers STILL wouldn't care...
Fri Feb 28, 2020, 01:30 PM
Feb 2020

They would be dying of the plague and in-between fits of coughing up their own lungs would be crowing about 'owning libs' until they finally died.

These fuckers do not care about anything more than hating what they can't understand. If you think differently, or have more empathy than they do, you are the "enemy" and must be vanquished at any cost. Their own lives are secondary.

I first saw this in the disinformation campaign around cigarettes, then on the debates about evolution, then on the climate change emergency and now on an active pandemic and discussions of how to mitigate the damages. It is madness.

Tucker08087

(622 posts)
43. Yes, I once contracted the Coxsackie B Virus.
Fri Feb 28, 2020, 12:45 PM
Feb 2020

It’s a cousin of Polio. It causes temporary paralysis, and got its name when several school children caught it in Coxsackie, New York. Unfortunately, the virus settled in the hearts of the children. They died when their hearts became paralyzed. Luckily for me, mine settled in my limbs.
Most doctors new little about it, so I did a great deal of research. It, too, has a 7-10 day life span away from the human body, on hard surfaces such as counters or even a piece of paper. Not even bleach kills it. It will eventually die on its own after those 7-10 days if it doesn’t find a host. If this virus has that kind of sustainability, it’s really impossible to contain. And since it’s a virus, there are no medical cures (such as antibiotics). It’s up to our immune systems to beat it (and I don’t have much as far as an immune system, so this is not good news for me).

uponit7771

(93,532 posts)
57. I have first-hand account that nearly a hundred million people in China were quarantined for 20 days
Fri Feb 28, 2020, 01:55 PM
Feb 2020

This is no joke

We're not being told everything in regards to the remedy we already know they're lying about the severity

Doreen

(11,686 posts)
49. Conspiracy theory ( not that I have not thought of it myself.)
Fri Feb 28, 2020, 01:32 PM
Feb 2020

New World Order

1. Population control


Just a stupid thought.

Pacifist Patriot

(25,212 posts)
61. To put this in perspective...
Fri Feb 28, 2020, 02:21 PM
Feb 2020

Using the lower numbers (40% infection with 2% mortality), we're talking about the potential loss of the combined populations of:

Sweden
Norway
Finland
Denmark
Iceland
Belgium
Netherlands
Estonia
Latvia
Lithuania

I picked just one region of the world, obviously any nation or combination of nations can be used to make the point.

I don't think panic is conducive to preparation, but obviously we need to be serious, strategic, and systematic about this. However, it's clear the Trump administration is incapable of any of that.

TXPaganBanker

(210 posts)
67. With those numbers, the math says...
Fri Feb 28, 2020, 06:40 PM
Feb 2020

7.7 billion people on the planet (as of April 2019)

Best case scenario:
40% global infection
2% mortality
61,600,000 dead

Worst case scenario:
70% global infection
3% mortality
161,700,000 dead

Current published mortality rate
3.62%
195,118,000 dead

That's the entire population of Mexico, Canada and Australia, plus change.

Aussie105

(7,920 posts)
71. Not on fire, just concerned.
Fri Feb 28, 2020, 08:09 PM
Feb 2020

Not enough is known about the virus, so deep concern is warranted.

What is the real incubation period?
(Whoever said 14 days, may be well off target.)

How long can someone have it without showing symptoms, and be spreading it during that time?

How does it affect different age groups, different ethnic groups, in terms of incubation period and lethality?

How effectively does it spread in a crowded room with active air circulation? One infected person in a movie theater, by the end of the film, 20 infected people? In a Plane? Cruise liner? Church? Shopping mall?

How come it is spreading globally, despite best efforts to stop it doing so?

How long does the virus stay viable for on hard surfaces, in the air, in water?

Are there animal vectors? (eg mosquitoes with malaria, fleas and rats with Bubonic plague, etc.)

How long for an effective, mass produced vaccine to show up at a pharmacy near you?

And why, when the experts at CDC say 'this could be a bad one!' do WH talking heads go 'YOU CAN'T SAY THAT!'

If you are NOT concerned, you are just fooling yourself.

EDIT: Thinking back, Trump has mismanaged every US disaster in the last 3 years, so don't expect anything else this time.
Every time he had the chance to show some leadership skills, he misfired. Threw paper towels around the room, turned a disaster into a game where he was the centre of attention. Not as a leader, but as an ineffectual clown.

TXPaganBanker

(210 posts)
86. Oh heck...
Sat Feb 29, 2020, 02:25 AM
Feb 2020

I've been around since Dubya. I do my daily reading here a couple of times a day. Fear not, I'm not one of those whippersnappers running around posting all willy-nilly, I just don't post much.

 

bern2020

(23 posts)
77. what I heard
Fri Feb 28, 2020, 11:03 PM
Feb 2020

is that very young people tend to do better, because their immune systems are not as triggered by the virus

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