Anyone feel like we're living the opening chapters of "The Stand?" One of

[japple]

my friends said, " I know we all have to die eventually, but I never before thought it would be from Captain Tripp."

[Baclava]

1. Nobody in the US has died yet, you might be a tad premature

[uponit7771]

15. That's still not good, getting sick is bad enough

[Loki Liesmith]

2. No

[Aristus]

3. It occurred to me, but I recognized it as a rather hyperbolic reaction.

It's good to think about the worst-case scenario (we do it all the time in medicine), but the most likely outcome is usually the most routine and ordinary.

[Baclava]

4. WORSE CASE scenario, ban all dogs, 'Dog tests positive for coronavirus'

THE PET dog of a coronavirus patient has tested positive for the deadly disease.

The owner of the dog, Yvonne Chow Hau Yee, who lives in Hong Kong with her beloved Pomeranian, tested her pet pooch after being diagnosed with COVID-19.

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/11060913/dog-coronavirus-test-positive/

[uponit7771]

16. 200 million in China quarantined for nearly 3 wks is horrible

[Sugar Smack]

5. Yes. I refer back to all of Chapter 8.

It describes the fast-moving silent creep from person to person, person to people. The anonymity of it, which is really scary stuff. But it's also good for a little mindful preparation.

[Aristus]

7. I'll never forget the first time I read that chapter.

I was appalled at the levels of casual contact, which we all take for granted, that can spread a highly-virulent organism. I had never thought about it that way before. Human beings crave, and need, physical contact with other human beings. It's a source of strength, but also a potential pitfall in the realm of communicable disease.

[Downtown Hound]

6. It has a mortality rate of 2%

Meaning it's only a little more dangerous than the flu we've been livng with all our lives. We're not going to all die. Calm down.

[Pompoy]

8. That translates to 20 times more dangerous

The flu has a mortality rate of 0.1%.

[Miguelito Loveless]

10. True, but Captain Trips

from the book was 99% lethal.

[TazoChai]

17. The fatality maths

I thought this initially, too, but that number may not be calculated correctly and is only one dimension of the problem.

Apparently, mortality rate is total dead / (total dead + total recovered). If you look at the latest stats from Johns Hopkins, total dead globally = 2.8 k and total recovered = 36.7k. Using this formula, mortality rate = 2.8k / 39.5k = 7%.

This also assumes data from China is accurate. I'd guess it's on the low end.

The other difference here is the resilience and transmission of the germ. It can survive for longer and spreads more easily. So even if the mortality rate was comparable (which I don't think it is), the total numbers will grow larger more quickly. I guess it's exponential. Also, you may be able to get reinfected.

Also, it can apparently infect animals. We eat animals and keep them as pets. I'm not aware of past pneumonia that can move between species, if that's correct.

So while I definitely agree it's good to be calm, I haven't seen anything like this in my lifetime. We're a little bit in uncharted territory, I think.

[japple]

18. The upper respiratory infections we see so often in cats and kittens, especially those in

feral colonies and shelters, are caused by a corona virus, as is the highly contagious and usually deadly feline infectious peritonitis virus but I don't know how closely related to Covid -19.

[Miguelito Loveless]

9. Nowhere as lethal as Captain Tripp

And global heating will kill far more in the long run.

[TeamPooka]

11. Superflu/Captain Tripps is where I went right away hearing all this news this week.

I'm going to miss all of you.

[lame54]

12. I keep thinking of...

The last man on earth

[lapislzi]

13. No, it's a middle chapter from Chuck Wendig's "Wanderers"

Right down to the RW creep occupying the White House. I don't know how Wendig must feel, being a perfect Cassandra.

That book gave me sleepless nights for weeks. Now they're back.

[Guy Whitey Corngood]

14. I didn't, until now. Thanks a lot... :-P nt

[budkin]

19. Absolutely.

And Trump is just helping it along with his non-response.