....the COVID-19 Virus means....
First of all - it was NOT 500 Million people who died worldwide from the Spanish Flu epidemic of 1918-1920 - it INFECTED apron 500 Million, of which it is estimated that 20-50 MILLION were linked to dying of it - that is 4-10% of the number you quoted.
And no, we didn't have the ability in 1918-1920 to travel across the world in one day as we do now and in current rates. So cut the misinformation and mistruths and comparisons minimizing the COVID-19 virus and its ability to spread and become a deadly pandemic.
I won't even argue with you because you clearly don't understand it and you don't even know how to calculate CFR (Case Fatality Rates).
Every Epidemiologist will tell you that you have to calculate it based on "Cases with known outcomes". There are only at this time about half of the "Reported Cases" (and we don't know all cases, especially here in the US because there isn't testing going on). are considered to be "Cases with outcome and closed". That total of Closed cases with outcome is 42,371. Of that total, there have been 2923 deaths - which is a 7% CFR. That is very very high. The remaining 39,448 have been designated as rececovered and discharged with no symptoms.
That means meanwhile the other half of currently "reported" known cases, with "NO OUTCOME" and who are currently infected, 7816 are in Serious or Critical condition. That is 18% of cases with no outcome and based on data that WHO has collected so far, most of those patients had underlying conditions ranging from hypertension, diabetes, cancer, heart conditions etc. and they have a higher chance of dying. Based on the data over the last month, it is expected that at least 40-50% of that 7816 will die. So expect the number of dead to go up by at least another 3000-4000 in the next month. You are then looking at a CFR of the existing to date 85,206 known reported cases to be in the range of 7-10%.
This is much much higher than the 2% that they report it as being - but note that no one at WHO or NIH or CDC who is a scientist or medical professional will state that is an accurate number. It is because they know what I just explained to you. They know the CFR is closer to 7-10% and likely higher.
Meanwhile, the numbers coming out of Iran are believed to be inaccurate and they aren't accurately reporting. Expect those numbers to be much much higher and the infection rates to be continuing. WHO has a team being sent to Iran that will arrive with the assistance of the UAE on Monday. We will know more next week on a more realistic number out of Iran and its predicted to be anywhere from 4-10 times higher than what they have been reporting. Italy believes that the virus came to them from people traveling from Iran originally.
And here in US - expect over the next 2-4 weeks that all the people who have not only come into contact with people who came from Italy for Fashion week in NY, the memorial for Kobe Bryant, the HHS workers who walked amongst their communities after contact with the Diamond Princess evacuees, etc. to have been asymptomatic and spreading away.
And the numbers will jump. And we better hope that people are prepared for what is coming. And if we have an Administration that doesn't take appropriate measures and we don't start testing and taking drastic measures, the numbers will rise fast.
And I assure you....this virus based on what is known and what it can do in its transmission rate and ability to be airborne, live on hard surfaces, the way people travel globally, will result in a spread that will make the Spanish Flu look tame.
The CFR of the Spanish Flu was about 4-8%. COVID-19 CFR looks to be 7-10%. It also had a Ro (transmission rate) of 1-1.5 and COVID-19 is 2-3 Ro. Twice as high of spread transmission rate.
If even only 1 Billion people on this planet of our 7 Billion contract and are infected by the COVID-19 virus and we have even the 2% CFR they claim, that would be 20 Million people dead.
If the epidemiologists who know the CFR is really closer to 7-10% - well, you can do the math - you are looking 70-100 million dead per Billion people of population.
It is NOT less worrisome than the Spanish Flu, so please stop spreading this mistruth and misinformation that you clearly do not understand.
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