Professor with history of correctly predicting elections says it's 'the incumbent's election to lose

[RandySF]

A professor in political science with a history of accurately predicting the outcome of U.S. presidential elections said either Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) would win the primary election or the Democratic National Committee (DNC) will face a brokered convention in July.

Allan Lichtman from American University is the co-creator of "The Keys to the White House," a forecast model used to predict nine previous elections, according to The Independent.

"I think the most likely outcomes are [Bernie] Sanders wins or nobody wins," Lichtman said, "and for the first time in over 50 years, we actually have a convention nominating the candidate."

The prediction model also indicated that "it is generally speaking the incumbent's election to lose," according to the report.

The professor said that the model is not designed to forecast primaries, but there are signs that the upcoming Democratic convention could a brokered one.



https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/485298-professor-who-correctly-predicted-7-of-last-8-elections-says-bernie-sanders

[edhopper]

1. Like everything else

Trump is not like other Presidents.

[guillaumeb]

4. I was canvassing for Warren today.

Of the people I spoke with, the idea that Trump is a lunatic is favored.

[edhopper]

7. A stupid, hateful lunatic.

Go Liz!

[unblock]

8. It's not so much donnie himself

It's that I don't think we've had this degree of propaganda and voter suppression and foreign interference and cheating in a long time.


(Obviously, women and slaves couldn't vote early on; I mean in the last century or so)

[edhopper]

9. This is also true

[dawg]

2. A brokered convention is fine.

If Bernie wins, then go Bernie!

But if Bernie can't convince 50% of the delegates, and someone else can, then go That Person!

[unblock]

3. I like his model a lot. Well, not where it's pointing, but intellectually

But I think his model flips if we have a recession

[Goodheart]

5. Melania is also a shitty model.

[in2herbs]

6. With rump telling the Rs in SC to vote for Bernie I think a brokered convention is necessary

for the real D candidate to be selected.

[stillcool]

10. I want it over...

voted yesterday, and had such a hard time deciding. First time ever, I was so conflicted. Crown someone already, and let's get on with it. Eff everything else.