interesting thread about *possible* impact of the coronavirus epidemic

[steve2470]

Caveat: I'm not vouching for her numbers and assumptions but it's an interesting read nonetheless. 36 tweets
so it's very long.

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1236095180459003909.html

from:

Link to tweet

[beachbumbob]

1. well thought out and discussing issues worthy of discussion

[DENVERPOPS]

14. You are right on BBB

Nobody mentioning historial facts about 1918 virus that wiped out 50 Million.

It started in the Spring, slowed way down in the Summer, and then came back with a VENGEANCE in the fall of that year.
80% of all soldiers in WWI were killed by the flu pandemic, not by warfare.....

This is scary shit. Trump fired all the people Obama created to defend us against this, then he un-funded a bunch of the top resources that go into motion to clamp down on the shit that is now happening. Trump now having the Audacity to flip it 180 degrees, as usual, and saying it was Obama that torpedoed the entire prevention system that he actually set up to combat a pandemic.

WASF

[Kitchari]

2. K&R. n/t

[Mike 03]

3. Important thread

As healthcare system becomes increasingly burdened, Rx shortages, etc, people w/ chronic conditions that are normally well-managed may find themselves slipping into severe states of medical distress requiring intensive care & hospitalization. But let’s ignore that for now. 12/n

This isn't being discussed enough: the number of people with medical conditions or illnesses unrelated to COVID-19 who either won't seek help or won't be able to get help as the virus expands.

[Mike 03]

4. A few of her Tweets from this thread

Undeserved panic does no one any good. But neither does ill-informed complacency. It’s wrong to assuage the public by saying “only 2% will die.” People aren’t adequately grasping the national and global systemic burden wrought by this swift-moving of a disease. 23/n

I’m an engineer. This is what my mind does all day: I run back-of-the-envelope calculations to try to estimate order-of-magnitude impacts. I’ve been on high alarm about this disease since ~Jan 19 after reading clinical indicators in the first papers emerging from Wuhan. 24/n

Nothing in the last 6 weeks has dampened my alarm in the slightest. To the contrary, we’re seeing abject refusal of many countries to adequately respond or prepare. Of course some of these estimates will be wrong, even substantially wrong. 25/n

But I have no reason to think they’ll be orders-of-magnitude wrong. Even if your personal risk of death is very, very low, don’t mock decisions like canceling events or closing workplaces as undue “panic”. 26/n

[DENVERPOPS]

19. right on Mike

Trump & Minions are constantly on media saying it is way lower than 2%. Maybe their math education shouldn't have stopped in the third grade.............

John Hopkins this morning on their Corona accounting world wide:

102,472 confirmed cases, 3,491 deaths. That is like 3.4%. A calculation that could be done by any fourth grade math student......

[defacto7]

27. Wrong calculation

62,000 cases with an outcome of which 3500 are deaths. The percentage of deaths is?

Round that down by unknown infection rates and the speculation is... ? Experts say 3.4%.

[Rorey]

5. Don't panic

This is terrifying, actually.


On a personal level, I've got a daughter who is facing at least three surgeries in the coming months. Will she get a bed? Will the surgical team have masks? Will there even be a surgical team available?

We're expecting a new baby to join our family in late summer. Again, Bed? Masks? Medical staff? My daughter-in-law is considered to be in the high risk category.

It's not just coronavirus that we should be concerned about. It's how it taxes EVERYTHING.

I'm trying to remain calm, but it's increasingly difficult.

[OhNo-Really]

6. I copied & posted all 33 tweets for all to read. We each can save lives

https://www.democraticunderground.com/100213054589

Case for social distancing to avoid overwhelming medical capacity

[Delphinus]

8. Thank you

for doing that. I was quite impressed with her thread.

[OhNo-Really]

9. Me too. I feel better about self-isolating

Last edited Sat Mar 7, 2020, 04:12 PM - Edit history (1)

It’s not a stretch as a mostly reclusive anyway 😊

[ramen]

31. Thank you nt

[Alhena]

7. But China greatly reduced their number of sick

Yes, I know there's some fudging of numbers there, but that huge hospital they built for virus patients now has a lot of empty beds. They've clearly had success there.

That's why I dislike these people who act like it's inevitable we'll see a doubling of the numbers of sick every so often. Sure, there will be if everyone just ignores the risks, but I assume at some point the self-preservation instinct will kick in, even with Trump supporters. People will start staying at home more, washing their hands obsessively, etc. That kind of thing actually works with this virus because it's NOT airborne - that's the one saving grace of it.

[SidDithers]

10. China shut down entire cities...

Do you see the US doing that?

Sid

[shelshaw]

13. Maybe on election night

[Efilroft Sul]

16. Thread win.

[defacto7]

29. No, but even the UK said they will if necessary.

In the US it's going to be local and state gov that will have to pick up the slack, slack meaning everything.

[OhNo-Really]

11. Did you see the YouTube videos?

China literally welded ppls doors shut

Very heavy handed, hugely populated army of enforcers of in home quarantine

I think they also sprayed every square inch with teams of hand pumped disinfectant

US is doing nothing to slow down infection rates other than “monitoring” with testing

Which is why I feel compelled to shout from roof tops

Please self isolate for a few weeks as much as possible

[DENVERPOPS]

17. Good one ONR

To say nothing of U.S. Customs not doing a single check on the Massive number of people coming into the U.S. from foreign countries that are Major locations of the Virus.......It's like they are inviting a conflagration to take place right here in the U.S.

Sad that it isn't a brain virus, then at least the Trump Voters would have something to blame their irrational, irresponsible, un-reasonable, incoherent loud mouth thinking and blabbering on!

[yaesu]

12. I will be doing a lot of thraveling, eating out, ect... starting in June just when the shit hits the

fan big time. R.I.P me.

[Wounded Bear]

15. K & R...for visibility...nt

[Hotler]

18. Bring out your dead

[smirkymonkey]

20. K&R

[CanonRay]

21. Shit, I have 3 of the 4 high risk markers

I'd best not get this thing.

[NoMoreRepugs]

22. Unfortunately for the country 60million+ Deplorables

share the same alternate reality as the Orange Menace.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

25. Saw Pompeo roll out defense on CNBC yesterday. He kept

stressing "communist" China. Blaming them for not informing us earlier. What's even scarier is that it appears trump has infected the CDC. Read John Hopkins website #s on cases and deaths more untainted and accurate.

When Pimpeo was asked why no test kits...they let him blithely respond "I have nothing to do with that!"

[Laura PourMeADrink]

23. Very interesting and scary.

[mgardener]

24. I volunteered in our local hospital last winter

The hospital was routinely full, no available beds.
Our local nursing home is on restricted visiting.
Hospital beds in small communities are stretched from the flu alone.
In 2018 over 700 rural hospitals closed.

I have received more information from our local hospital, gym then I have from the gov.
Or from know it all Trump.

[BusyBeingBest]

26. It is the health care worker and hospital system angle that

I am most worried about. There are only so many workers and nurses, so many ICU beds, so many masks, ventilators, respiratory therapists to run the vents, and so on. This will put a severe squeeze on all health care and hospitalization. Hopefully we will catch a lucky break.

[LittleGirl]

28. Thanks for sharing!

I’ve thought of most of these things.

[uponit7771]

30. ✨✨✨+1, PEOPLE ARE IGNORING THE INFECTION RATE !!!✨✨✨