What does coronavirus mean for the U.S. health care system? Some simple math offers alarming answers

[Dennis Donovan]

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/10/simple-math-alarming-answers-covid-19/

By LIZ SPECHT - MARCH 10, 2020

<snip>

Individuals and governments seem not to be fully grasping the magnitude and near-inevitability of the national and global systemic burden we’re facing. We’re witnessing the abject refusal of many countries to adequately respond or prepare. Even if the risk of death for healthy individuals is very low, it’s insensible to mock decisions like canceling events, closing workplaces, or stocking up on prescription medications as panicked overreaction. These measures are the bare minimum we should be doing to try to shift the peak — to slow the rise in cases so health care systems are less overwhelmed.

The doubling time will naturally start to slow once a sizable fraction of the population has been infected due to the emergence of herd immunity and a dwindling susceptible population. And yes, societal measures like closing schools, implementing work-from-home policies, and canceling events may start to slow the spread before reaching infection saturation.

But considering that the scenarios described earlier — overflowing hospitals, mask shortages, infected health care workers — manifest when infections reach a mere 1% of the U.S. population, these interventions can only marginally slow the rate at which our health care system becomes swamped. They are unlikely to prevent overload altogether, at least in the absence of exceedingly swift and austere measures.

Each passing day is a missed opportunity to mitigate the wave of severe cases that we know is coming, and the lack of widespread surveillance testing is simply unacceptable. The best time to act is already in the past. The second-best time is right now.

Liz Specht is the associate director of science and technology at The Good Food Institute.

[pat_k]

1. "lack of widespread surveillance testing is simply unacceptable" (nt)

[SunSeeker]

2. My doctor told me not to schedule elective surgery until late May, AFTER cold and flu season.

She expects things will be "problematic" for the next few months.

[moonscape]

3. I'm debating on elective surgery (which has the

possibility to become emergency surgery if I wait ... or not) in 2 weeks. Right now the healthcare system is not stressed, but it could be a 5-alarm nightmare in 2 months.

Lots of things to consider individually and depending on region. CV is in my area and the surgery would be in a surgi center (predominantly maternity) so not a hospital where sick people go to get care. Still, it's worrying because I have some meaningful risk factors.

Lots of calculating to be done these days!

[SunSeeker]

4. I'd go for it now. Mine is truly elective and can wait. Yours can't.

Things are still relatively normal. The shit won't really hit the fan for another month is my guess.

[moonscape]

5. Am leaning in that direction. I could manage a year without it or

it could become an emergency at a horrible time. Have to admit it would be good to get it over with and then continue hunkering down without that on my plate. My risk factors make it so I truly need not to get the CV if at all possible.

Thanks. You might've talked me into it!