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RockRaven

(14,967 posts)
1. Given that our testing regime has been closer to Iran or North Korea than Europe or South Korea,
Tue Mar 10, 2020, 11:56 PM
Mar 2020

I'd suggest that that "1000" figure is probably off by a very, very, very large margin.

Salviati

(6,008 posts)
2. *Confirmed cases...
Tue Mar 10, 2020, 11:58 PM
Mar 2020

... Remember, we've been well over 1000 cases for quite some time, we're just finding them now.

rainin

(3,011 posts)
4. For every person who dies, there are 100 people infected
Wed Mar 11, 2020, 12:17 AM
Mar 2020

based on the conservative 1% death rate

and assuming a 6 week course of the illness, the 100 people have multiplied 3X (2weeks latency).

So one death means 300 people are infected

Not my numbers: from a virologist on a podcast I listened to today

My head is spinning

logme

(27 posts)
7. from europe : governements do not "control" a pandemy their duty is to limit its consequences
Wed Mar 11, 2020, 08:15 PM
Mar 2020
The U.S. death toll climbed to 33 and the number of U.S. cases rolled past 1,100, federal health officials said. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Director Robert Redfield told a congressional committee the virus has spread to at least 38 states.

https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2020/03/11/coronavirus-live-updates-washington-ban-michigan-cases-us-death/5011587002/

Watching this from Europe I was wondering why the death toll was high & did not match the number of infected in the US, But it is clear now that the US is actually following Europe in its tracks.
In France we have now about 2300 infected patients & 48 death. This probably means the actual spread of the virus is sill a bit underestimated in the US.

All first world countries will now try their best to limit the peak of the infection in order to avoid seeing the limited intensive care resources overrun. As long as the daily numbers of patient is contained the mortality rate will stay under 2% and the situation will be perfectly manageable, but I wonder how public opinions will deal with this situation and the constraints it will impose.
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