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Dennis Donovan

(18,770 posts)
Wed Mar 11, 2020, 08:09 AM Mar 2020

StatNews: Why 'flattening the curve' may be the world's best bet to slow the coronavirus

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/11/flattening-curve-coronavirus/

By HELEN BRANSWELL @HelenBranswell MARCH 11, 2020

</snip>

Mina said the lack of evidence of widespread transmission in the country may be making people feel any aggressive step right now may be an overreaction. But this is precisely the time when public health measures of this sort can have an impact, he said.

“We are all wondering if our actions are melodramatic. And we’re feeling silly,” he said, noting people still feel self-conscious bumping elbows instead of shaking hands.

“But this is the problem, that people aren’t recognizing that we are at this moment and we can make a decision right now to flatten this curve by … being OK with wondering if we’re being melodramatic,” he said.

“Should we be canceling classes? Should we be canceling our flights? Should we not be shaking hands? All of these things are things that I want the public to keep wondering if we should be doing this. Because the moment we’re no longer wondering whether we should be doing it, it’s too late,” Mina said. “That means that we know we should be doing it. And that is a bad place to be.”


VERY informative article - StatNews dropped its paywall on Coronavirus stories.

(On edit, I replaced the first 4 paragraphs with the last 4, since the conclusion of the article is more important at this point)
6 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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StatNews: Why 'flattening the curve' may be the world's best bet to slow the coronavirus (Original Post) Dennis Donovan Mar 2020 OP
*Kick* Dennis Donovan Mar 2020 #1
kick Dennis Donovan Mar 2020 #2
Yes! We must each do our part to try to not overwhelm hospitals OhNo-Really Mar 2020 #3
Yes, exactly! Dennis Donovan Mar 2020 #4
I prefer melodrama and overreacting at this point. babylonsister Mar 2020 #5
Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes. It is *not* too late to start social distancing. Now is the time. Pobeka Mar 2020 #6

OhNo-Really

(3,985 posts)
3. Yes! We must each do our part to try to not overwhelm hospitals
Wed Mar 11, 2020, 09:12 AM
Mar 2020

Lives can be saved

I’ve posted several reports from Doctors in Italy & research results. This will escalate quickly if ppl refuse to except doing their part to slow down the spread

Stay home if you can and as much as you can

Dennis Donovan

(18,770 posts)
4. Yes, exactly!
Wed Mar 11, 2020, 09:15 AM
Mar 2020

The problem is, no one will follow this unless forced to by the govt. That's coming, if Italy is any indication.

Pobeka

(4,999 posts)
6. Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes. It is *not* too late to start social distancing. Now is the time.
Wed Mar 11, 2020, 09:49 AM
Mar 2020

If we can each reduce our interactions only 33%, our individual chance of infection reduces by 1/3, BUT, it reduces the infected/contagious population by 1/3 for that day. Which means the infected population on day two is .66 * .66, or .43 as much compared to full social interactions.

That is obviously a little oversimplified, but the math is simple, and powerful.

Recommended.

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