Exponential growth - I think we are there.

[NRaleighLiberal]

The data at https://coronavirus.1point3acres.com/en is pretty stark.

We are at 2969 cases - an increase of 658 today alone.

On March 1, 91 cases, 20 new
March 5, 236/75
March 10, 1040/289
today March 14 2969/658

If we are on the pathway to the Italian experience with this - Italy has 350 cases per million people - probably due to totally inadequate or non existent testing, we are only at 8.5 cases per million people. The shit may be just beginning to hit the fan.

A bit more analysis - Italy went from 80 (Feb 22) to 250 (Feb 24) to 1000 (Feb 29) to 3000 (March 4) - 10000 (March 10) to 21000 (March 14) - to use numbers similar to ours so far.

2 days - 5 days - 4 days to go from 80 to 3000 - Italy

4 days - 5 days - 4 days to go from 90 to 3000 - US - eerily similar. This means we may be at 10,000 in 6 days (March 20), AND AT 20000 by March 24, if the same patterns hold.

[tinrobot]

1. And those are just the reported numbers with minimal testing.

The real numbers must be much, much greater

[NRaleighLiberal]

2. that's what I believe as well - and fear

[Ms. Toad]

3. Yes. It's about to take off.

Right now, if you plot the data out 40 more days, we're still on the flat part of the curve. About 15 more days and we're at a half a million - and then it starts racing up.

(That's on a polynomial that matches very closely. The closest purely exponentaial has us "flat" for about the same - but the uptick is much steeper at day 15 from now.

I just hope that we started strong measures soon enough.

Polynomial curve- we hit ~1 million in about April 18.
Purely exponential - we hit ~ 1 million April 7

[NRaleighLiberal]

4. and event and school etc cancellations are typically to the end of March.

I think our lives will be disrupted well into the summer....

[bullwinkle428]

5. Place bets on the day we hit 5 figures. And 6 figures. My guess is, frighteningly soon.

[dweller]

6. 5 on sunday

6 by monday ...

✌🏼

[dalton99a]

7. +1. Great website