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Wed Mar 18, 2020, 04:39 PM

My latest COVID-19 numbers and estimates

Data comes from https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ as of 4:00 pm March 18, 2020.

Global data:

Cases are increasing by over 17,000 per day.
Deaths are increasing by almost 1,000 per day.

The "All Case" CFR, using the data for all cases and deaths is 4.1% It has been climbing continuously for the last month up from 2.8%.

The "Closed Case" CFR using the data for recoveries and deaths is 9.6%, and has been climbing steadily for a week and a half, up from 5.6%.

Projections based on quadratic fits to the month of global data since 19 February, and extended out to April 15 indicates 600,000 cases for a second-order fit (R^2=0.976), and 1.4 million for a tighter third order fit (R^2=0.998).

US Data:

American cases are rising by 1500 per day, but there really isn't enough data yet to be confident of the trends.
Based on data from 1 March, projections indicate between 70,000 and 225,000 cases by April 13.

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Arrow 14 replies Author Time Post
Reply My latest COVID-19 numbers and estimates (Original post)
The_jackalope Mar 2020 OP
evertonfc Mar 2020 #1
Igel Mar 2020 #2
Turin_C3PO Mar 2020 #3
Bookworm2586 Mar 2020 #5
dalton99a Mar 2020 #7
Bookworm2586 Mar 2020 #8
The_jackalope Mar 2020 #4
PETRUS Mar 2020 #6
The_jackalope Mar 2020 #9
PETRUS Mar 2020 #10
greenjar_01 Mar 2020 #11
PETRUS Mar 2020 #13
Roland99 Mar 2020 #12
Azathoth Mar 2020 #14

Response to The_jackalope (Original post)

Wed Mar 18, 2020, 04:42 PM

1. let's get real

 

This virus will spread until There is a vaccine. In meantime, a treatment as we see in Japan is only remedy

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Response to evertonfc (Reply #1)

Wed Mar 18, 2020, 04:50 PM

2. At this point, pretty much.

On the other hand, the slope of the curve really matters. Too steep, and people die because palliative care can't be tendered. Shallow enough, and a large portion of the population's uninfected when reasonable and effective treatments or the vaccine hits the market.

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Response to evertonfc (Reply #1)

Wed Mar 18, 2020, 04:52 PM

3. Vaccine is probably at least 14 months away.

From what Iíve read, they give the vaccine to one person and monitor them for 12 months to ensure itís not lethal. You donít wanna rush a vaccine to the public that might kill everyone who gets it.

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Response to Turin_C3PO (Reply #3)

Wed Mar 18, 2020, 04:54 PM

5. Like that Will Smith movie from a few years ago

 

Can't remember the name. Anti-cancer vaccine turned people into zombies, or something.

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Response to Bookworm2586 (Reply #5)

Wed Mar 18, 2020, 05:12 PM

7. I Am Legend

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Response to dalton99a (Reply #7)

Wed Mar 18, 2020, 05:19 PM

8. Yes, that's it! n/t

 

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Response to evertonfc (Reply #1)

Wed Mar 18, 2020, 04:53 PM

4. Yes, and the estimate by the professional epidemiologists

is 140 million infections in the USA. But that's hard for an amateur like me to defend, so I tend to look at results closer in. Even 1.4 million infections by mid-April is bad enough to flatten the health care system.

I guess based on the 140 million estimate we could get 2.5 billion or more infections world-wide, but that's hard even for a doomer like me to believe. There's no point even speculating on numbers like that - they are end-of-the-world stuff.

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Response to The_jackalope (Original post)

Wed Mar 18, 2020, 05:08 PM

6. I've been bracing myself for an escalating series of crises/emergencies for at least several years.

Climate change (and ecological overshoot in general) pretty much guarantees that. Covid-19 is a bit of a curveball, but I suppose things like this happen too.

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Response to PETRUS (Reply #6)

Wed Mar 18, 2020, 05:25 PM

9. Same here.

It feels like Mother Nature decided to give it to us all at once.

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Response to The_jackalope (Reply #9)

Wed Mar 18, 2020, 06:00 PM

10. When I was young...

I was fascinated by "interesting times" in history, and even somewhat envied people who lived through them. Foolish, huh?

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Response to PETRUS (Reply #6)

Wed Mar 18, 2020, 06:04 PM

11. One wonders if COVID slows climate damage

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Response to greenjar_01 (Reply #11)

Wed Mar 18, 2020, 07:46 PM

13. Well, a global recession is likely.

That means less energy and material use, so there's that.

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Response to The_jackalope (Original post)

Wed Mar 18, 2020, 06:07 PM

12. Over 2,500 NEW cases in the US so far today

https://coronavirus.1point3acres.com/en

Mortality rate is down to 1.6% but wonít be surprised if that ticks up. Hospitals must be reaching critical levels

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Response to The_jackalope (Original post)

Wed Mar 18, 2020, 08:08 PM

14. I wouldn't be surprised if we're already at 50K-100K

There's been unchecked exponential growth here for God knows how long.

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