This site predicts trends for each state in different C-19 mitigation scenarios:

[tblue37]

https://covidactnow.org

They are mostly terrifying.

[Alex4Martinez]

1. Very helpful, thank you, K/R nt

[JCMach1]

2. Dallas based shelter at home on these stats... its the only to get this under control quickly

What we are currently doing in most states, WILL NOT WORK and is a setup for mass casualties ...

[tblue37]

3. Yep. And only a Wuhan style lockdown gets deaths under 1000 per state. nt

[getagrip_already]

4. Mostly? for almost every populated state, they will run out of beds first week of april....

millions and millions dead.

I'd say that's completely terrifying.

[tblue37]

6. By "mostly" I meant most of the info is terrifying. The Wuhan style lockdown info at

least suggests a slightly less terrifying way forward.

[getagrip_already]

7. northern italy just moved to that model....

too late probably. We only have a week, maybe 2, left.

[2naSalit]

5. It will be interesting to see how accurate this turns out to be

in a couple months.

I suspect the projection for my state may be more dire than it will inevitably be. I could be wrong so I will be interested in seeing how it actually turns out.

[HarlanPepper]

11. The NYT has a better set up

You can plug in multiple models.

[2naSalit]

12. Thanks, I'll check that out. ...nt

[yonder]

8. Yes. Terrifying.

Thanks and sharing

[milestogo]

9. Wow. Huge difference between shelter at home and social distancing.

[PufPuf23]

10. That striking difference is what I noticed about California

Seems reasonable that in practice there will be a blend of shelter in place and social distancing.