and/or you overestimate how bad this one will be.
in 4 excruciating year, the economy was cut in half, and the after-effects lasted until the economy was converted into a war machine. over a decade of pain.
there were (and are) structural imbalances in the u.s. and global economy prior to covid-19, nothing as severe as what was going on 90 years ago.
indeed, what will set this contraction apart from all others is its speed. because it was triggered by a single event that led to a rapid closing of many businesses -- indeed, some entire industries -- the economy is contracting possibly even quicker than during the depression.
but there is absolutely nothing to indicate that we will continue to contract for 4 solid years. we can reasonably expect meaningful improvement during the coming months in fighting and coping with covid-19. a vaccine is anticipated by 18 months, and by then, most people will have developed natural immunity anyway.
after that point, the economy is likely to expand rapidly. it will take a long time to get back to pre-crisis levels, but again, nothing to indicate anything on the scale of the great depression.
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