So. Dare I say there are "only" 80,000 US deaths.

[Tommy_Carcetti]

20,000 below the lower limits of what was uttered today at the press conference as a likely toll.

Would the Madman dare use that fact as a way to declare "victory" and act as though he himself was somehow responsible for preventing a larger toll? Even though he at one point swore that it would magically disappear on its own, and that there were only 15 cases in the country and would soon be none?

I ask that rhetorically, because we all know he will. Because he has zero shame, and sees everything as a numbers game.

[PubliusEnigma]

1. 80,000 is still over 1300 people a day for 2 straight months.

In reality, it will last longer and kill more per day.

[Eliot Rosewater]

2. Between him and the R govs like FL who defy this virus, million or more are gonna die.

If TODAY rump and pence are removed and somehow GOP governors can be forced to or the citizens can, maybe we keep it at 500,000

maybe

[underpants]

3. Here's declaring victory for being less than 2.2 Million regardless of what happens

Bank on it

[misanthrope]

6. Yup

That's the plan.

[pat_k]

10. However bad it gets, it would have been worse without travel ban -- that's the drumbeat.

https://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1002&pid=13212725

[underpants]

15. Yeah and that sprinkles in some xenophobia

Travel ban = China

[Steelrolled]

4. I would be very happy if the death toll came in way under estimate

and I wouldn't care who tried to take credit. It means nothing to me.

[lame54]

5. He's already setting that up

[intrepidity]

7. It doesn't matter. Facts and numbers just simply don't matter.

If we've learned anything yet, it should be that trying to use facts to instruct anyone of anything re Trump is a loser's game.

He has no conscience or shame. He will lie, gaslight, rewrite history, everything, to satisfy his ego. Nothing else matters.

If the death toll is 20,000 or 2 million, it will make no difference to him or how he behaves. None. He'll rewrite his narrative.

[Tommy_Carcetti]

16. Like that aprocryphal Stalin quote. nt

[kentuck]

8. You got it!

Exactly!

Too bad Dr Fauci and Dr Birx do not get it. He got them to do it for him. With graphs and presentations.

[pat_k]

9. 84,000 (range 37,000 - 153,000) - projection (first wave) from Institute for Health Metrics and Eval

IHME at University of Washington currently projects 84,000 (range 37,000 - 153,000) for the first wave.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections (USA and state-specific)

The models assume continuation of strong social distancing and other precautions. They appear to be taking into account date of closure orders and extent. (See methods)

The main thrust of the project is estimating required hospital resources against available resources over the next weeks and months. Projecting deaths is part of that.

Seven weeks of obstruction and incompetence on the part of our federal government allowed uncontrolled, undetected spread. Heroic efforts on the part of state governments (at least a good number of them) are underway to deal with the fallout. If we care enough about each other to do our best to minimize the damage, maybe we can keep the numbers in the "lower range."

If we do, it will be down to action by state governments and individuals. The military is stepping up, and there is some positive action finally happening here and there at the federal level (but the vast majority of the claimed federal "support" is non-existent), but nothing they do now can make up for the lost opportunity to contain. Perhaps we wouldn't have been able to, but we'll never know because no effort whatsoever was made.

It didn't have to be like this.

[Initech]

11. OMG if there's a second wave of this...

The first wave is bad enough. I don't know how we will be able to handle a second. It just gets worse.

[pat_k]

12. Actually, Dr. Fauci has addressed that.

We will be in FAR better shape to deal with the second wave in many ways.

When incidence is vastly reduced, containment through extensive testing, tracing, and quarantine can be very effective -- and many jurisdictions will have built the testing capacity and infrastructure to do this over the next few months.

We will almost certainly have a test for antibodies, so will be able to identify who is immune, and have a far better idea about how much of the population is still vulnerable.

Hospitals will be far better equipped to treat large numbers of patients, if necessary. Healthcare workers will be better equipped to protect themselves.

We will have developed means to administer more effective treatments (e.g., would likely have built a "plasma bank" from recovered patients that can be used to treat the sick).

It won't be all sweetness and light, but there are key difference between where we will be in four or five months relative to our current posture of being utterly unprepared.

[Initech]

13. That is very reassuring.

Trump totally under prepared us for this pandemic but it's good to know that eventually science will catch up. I just really hope that we'll be able to return to some resemblance of normal life after COVID.

[pat_k]

14. We will...

It will be a "new normal," but I'm confident we will adjust to life after this tragedy.

Many will be forever changed by the loss of a partner, a child, a parent, a grandparent... but we will go on. Working at home may become a "new normal" for many (particularly if they are still susceptible). Regular testing at places of work may become "a new normal." I don't know exactly how things will play out, but human beings adapt -- sometimes to appalling situations. I don't think this will approach what people in war zones contend with as their "new normal."