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IL might have 19,000 COVID cases about a week from now, according to one analysis But it could have
Illinois might have 19,000 COVID-19 cases about a week from now, according to one analysis. But it could have been worse.
The number of COVID-19 cases in Illinois could exceed 19,000 a little more than a week from now, according to a new analysis by experts at Rush — but that’s far less than the 147,000 cases the state could have seen by then if residents had not retreated to their homes.
The projections from Rush — related to a new forecasting tool being offered to hospital officials — add to efforts by academics and experts across the country to estimate how bad the outbreak might get and how best to prepare. The White House discussed several models at a briefing Tuesday, including one that projected 100,000 to 200,000 deaths nationally if mitigation measures are in place to slow the transmission of the illness.
Illinois officials have not publicly released predictions about the number of cases in coming days and weeks, other than saying that they expect cases to peak in April and that the state would have run out of hospital beds by now without the governor’s stay-at-home order. As of Tuesday, Illinois had 5,994 confirmed cases statewide.
Dr. Bala Hota, vice president and chief analytics officer at Rush, noted that because many sick people likely aren’t being tested, it can be difficult to determine how many actually have COVID-19 in Illinois, which complicates efforts to project future growth.
The projections from Rush — related to a new forecasting tool being offered to hospital officials — add to efforts by academics and experts across the country to estimate how bad the outbreak might get and how best to prepare. The White House discussed several models at a briefing Tuesday, including one that projected 100,000 to 200,000 deaths nationally if mitigation measures are in place to slow the transmission of the illness.
Illinois officials have not publicly released predictions about the number of cases in coming days and weeks, other than saying that they expect cases to peak in April and that the state would have run out of hospital beds by now without the governor’s stay-at-home order. As of Tuesday, Illinois had 5,994 confirmed cases statewide.
Dr. Bala Hota, vice president and chief analytics officer at Rush, noted that because many sick people likely aren’t being tested, it can be difficult to determine how many actually have COVID-19 in Illinois, which complicates efforts to project future growth.
https://www.chicagotribune.com/coronavirus/ct-coronavirus-forecasts-hospitals-rush-20200331-v5vcjb3kyvdtjme32of6tt2j64-story.html
