Just my opinion, I think we should prepare ourselves for a much higher death toll than 200,000.

[shockey80]

I think we should also prepare ourselves for a bigger financial crisis. The reason I believe this is simple, Trump and the Republican governors. At this very moment, with their lack of action, lack of sanity, they are still spreading the virus at a very high rate. We are being led by people who are not sane.

I hope I am wrong.

[LaurenOlimina]

1. Yes. He has downplayed everything.

That 240,000 is the ante.

[uponit7771]

4. THIS !!!

[jimfields33]

2. We're at 4 thousand and Andrew just said the curve is over at the end of april

Also Italy the worst country in the world for this virus is at 12K.

[pnwmom]

13. That 12K is based on far fewer cases than we have so far. n/t

[spanone]

3. I fear for the folks in Florida. Sitting ducks & a useless governor.

[uponit7771]

5. +1

[Alacritous Crier]

11. Yup...

It's going to be a bloodbath down there.

[RockRaven]

6. GrOPers and MAGAts who refuse to do the right things will make this (in lives and money) several

times worse than it has to be, even given the starting point of the Trump admin's failures and malice.

[jmg257]

7. Assholes of all types will screw us all. It'll get way worse when places like NY start getting their

medical and LE resources over-run.

Cuomo talking about it now.

[HAB911]

8. I'm going with 1 million

[BBG]

9. My over/under is 6M

But I’m an optimistic pessimist.

[Alacritous Crier]

10. My opinion too -- nt

[Sherman A1]

12. agreed

unfortunately I must agree.

[thesquanderer]

14. The math makes me think 200k is indeed low...

I posted about this at https://www.democraticunderground.com/100213214523

[MerryBlooms]

15. We'll never know without proper testing and the lengths some are going to

to label deaths anything but C-19.

[JCMach1]

16. Just looking at 1918 #'s, I would expect a lot more than that

given our current population and other known factors...

[The_jackalope]

17. I agree. So does the math.

Curve fits* on the US death totals from March 1 to yesterday, projected out 4 weeks, indicate the possibility of 60,000 to 120,000 deaths by the end of April.

Given that nobody expects this to be over in a month, the eventual death toll will probably be much higher than that.

*third and fourth order quadratic fits in Excel, with R^2 of 0.9903 and 0.9987 respectively.

[area51]

18. Journalist David Cay Johnston thinks we may have between 480,000 & 5.1m deaths.

Link to tweet

"The Trump 100k-204k deaths range is based on a very optimistic model. We reported earlier likely death range: 490k to 5.1m with Fauci then at 1.1m."