Viral Load and flattening the curve from the UK

[GoneOffShore]

Forwarded to me from a nurse who is working on the 'front lines'

This is from my friend very high up in NHS
Look at this ..
This is important!

Might explain why some get COV19 mildly and recover fast whereas some Drs and nurses treating it in hospital die of it:
I didn't write this, another Doctor did:

Why do we need to shut places where people group?
VIRAL LOAD
There will be a lot about this. Why is it important?

With this virus, the amount of virus in your blood at first infection directly relates to the severity of the illness you will suffer. This isn’t unusual - HIV management is all about reducing viral load to keep people alive longer. BUT it’s very important in COVID-19.
So if you are in, say, a pub or religious building or entertainment venue with 200 people and a large number don’t have symptoms but are shedding, you are breathing in lots of droplets per minute and absorbing a high load of the virus. In a crowded space. They become ill over the next 48 hours. You then three days later wonder why you can’t breathe and end up in hospital. You’d decided because you were young and healthy it wasn’t going to be a problem.

Wrong.

Fortunately but unfortunately because the elderly are isolating quite well, the initial UK data suggests that all age groups above 20 are almost equally represented in ITUs in England. Most of the cases are in London but the wave is moving outwards.
This means that being under 60 and fit and well doesn’t seem to be as protective as we thought.
Why?
Viral load.

This may be skewed simply by the fact that too many Londoners didn’t do as asked and congregated in large groups in confined spaces and got a large initial viral load. They then went home and infected their wider families. Which is why, as London is overwhelmed, we need to shut everything down to save the rest of the UK. We are a week at most behind London.

Our sympathies go out to the families affected in London and the critical care teams battling right now to save as many as they can.
If I sit with one person and catch this virus, I get a small viral load. My immune system will start to fight it and by the time the virus starts replicating, I’m ready to kill it.

No medicines will help this process meaningfully hence there is no “cure” for this virus. All we can do is support you with a ventilator and hope your immune system can catch up fast enough.
If I sit in the same room with six people, all shedding I get six times the initial dose. The rise in viral load is faster than my immune system can cope with and it is overrun. I then become critically ill and need me (or an ITU/HDU specialist) to fix it instead of just being at home and being ok in the end.

THIS BIT IS IMPORTANT:

If you are a large family group, remember that by being ill and in the same room, you will make each other ill or “more ill”. If you get sick, isolate just yourself to one room and stay there. Don’t all sit in one room coughing. You will increase the viral load for all of you, reducing your survival rate.
A family of six people may produce double the droplets of a family of three in the same space. Maths is important.
If one of you is symptomatic, assume you are all shedding and make sure you keep some space.
Parents are getting it from their kids because no one is going to stop comforting their child (nor should they) so the parent gets a big hit as well as the child. I don’t think that can be helped.

REMEMBER: THINK ABOUT VIRAL LOAD

It could save your life or your child’s.

Britain, it’s up to you now. We are preparing for the worst but we are hoping for the best from you. Please help us to help you. Stay home and take this seriously now before we need the army on the streets to remind you. Yes I’m serious.
#flattenthecurve #stayathome

[SWBTATTReg]

1. Thanks for posting this very informative article. Helpful and puts things in perspective. NT

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

2. Or maybe not. The jury is still out:

https://www.newscientist.com/article/2238819-does-a-high-viral-load-or-infectious-dose-make-covid-19-worse/

[GoneOffShore]

5. A good perspective - I think that the idea of what I posted is

that it is better to be safe, stay home, stay out of large gatherings, as that will flatten the curve.

And viral load might well be an issue.

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

6. Absolutely. Don't take chances, regardless of whether or not

viral load causes more serious illness. Even if it doesn't, hanging out with a larger number of people increases your chances of getting it. And even if you don't get very sick you could transmit it to someone who will.

[HarlanPepper]

3. I've been wondering about this.

THANKS FOR POSTING!

Does this explain why so many doctors theoretically exposed to high viral loads have died?

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

7. They don't know for sure yet (see #2). There is a lot we don't know

about cv. It's one theory, not proven, still being researched. What is obvious is that the more exposure you have the more likely you are to get sick; why some people get sicker than others (apart from other conditions they might have) is not yet definitely known.

[HarlanPepper]

9. Yes I read the article you linked as well

[Laelth]

4. Viral load is A REAL THING.

It’s silly and dangerous to pretend that it isn’t.

-Laelth

[defacto7]

8. I agree.

Although it's not a conclusively proven effect in this case, the logic and preliminary info certainly helps cover the observations and questions we've been trying to answer. Taking it seriously can only help. Viral load IS a real thing.

[stopdiggin]

10. informative.

might just be a theory at this point .. nonetheless, one more GOOD reason to do what everyone is asking you to. Social distancing. If you don't HAVE to .. DON'T.