Coronavirus death rate may be lower than previously thought

[Quixote1818]

This doesn't mean we shouldn't worry about this. It's still much more deadly than the flu and spreads much, much faster. It still dwarfs the flu many times over.


By Yasemin Saplakoglu - Staff Writer a day ago

The death rate from COVID-19 is likely around 0.66%, if counting the mild or asymptomatic cases, according to a new study

In this new study, to figure out the true "infection fatality ratio" — the mortality rate that includes the people with mild cases who may have not been counted before — the researchers looked to data from people who were flown back to their various countries from Wuhan, China during the outbreak.

Those repatriated people were given PCR tests — tests which detect specific genetic material within the virus, according to a previous Live Science report. They also used data from Diamond Princess cruise ship passengers who also received PCR testing. Since these tests were given to people who didn't necessarily show symptoms, the researchers were able to estimate the prevalence of such cases.

Consistent with previous research, the new study also found that the death rate varied greatly by age. While the death rate was around 0.0016% in 0 to 9-year-olds, it increased to about 7.8% for people who were age 80 and above.

The researchers also found that nearly 1 in 5 people over the age of 80 infected with COVID-19 were likely to require hospitalization whereas only 1% of people under 30 were likely to be hospitalized.

"Estimating the case fatality ratio for COVID-19 in real time during its epidemic is very challenging," Shigui Ruan, a professor in the department of mathematics at The University of Miami wrote in an accompanying commentary. But the infection fatality ratio "is a very important piece of data that will help to guide the response from various government and public health authorities worldwide."

More: https://www.livescience.com/death-rate-lower-than-estimates.html

[jberryhill]

1. Which opens the door to snake oil treatments

Like the guy in France claiming an 85% recovery rate with chloroquine. Well, fuck me, 85% of cases recover without any intervention anyway.

[Initech]

29. The scammers are already out in full force. They will take it to the next level after this.

Watch your inboxes and calls hard. Do not answer if you do not know who it is.

[Turin_C3PO]

2. True but

the death rate of the flu is likely lower than reported also because of cases that aren’t counted and aren’t fatal. Whatever the case, we’re going to have an unacceptably high death toll that could have been partially mitigated if Trump had taken action two months ago.

[blitzen]

5. Yes, the death rate for flu is extremely miniscule in comparison...

https://www.democraticunderground.com/100213206194

[Quixote1818]

6. Good point. nt

[uponit7771]

15. +1, or hell !!! He can take action now !!!

[blitzen]

4. But 4% for age 60-64, 8.6% for 70-74, 13.4% for 80+

https://www.democraticunderground.com/100213206194

[CountAllVotes]

10. ❤ Thank you ❤

I need to be reminded of this.

I am high risk and my husband is almost 84.

It is not worth taking the risk is it?

So, no I cannot go out.

I must try some resources for the disabled and and elderly vet.

[ProfessorGAC]

11. A Concern

Only a couple countries are doing broad statistical sampling of the whole population.
So, were still stuck people being tested who:
Were asymptomatic, or,
Had such a mild case they didn't get treated or tested.
So, the 4, 8, 13+ percents would go down if all those people were included.
Right now in the US, for the most part, the deaths are the numerator over the cases we KNOW about. There might be 2 huge classes of people who are infected, but we have no way to include their numbers.
What your numbers do seem to show is that the older you get, the greater the risk.

[blitzen]

13. Yes, this is an early study based on available data. I also think it will go down....

and then there is the variation in treatment, depending on country etc.

These numbers are from study published in Lancet, from another DU post. But it is a highly credible, prestigious scientific journal.

[ProfessorGAC]

17. No Criticism Of Lancet

Peer reviewed med research!
But, they're still dealing with flawed data.
The OP is slightly newer and may contain some developing numbers that include a broader statistical base of cases.
So, while this thing is going to 50 to 100 times worse than "just a flu". ( Hear that, hoaxers?)

[blitzen]

22. Good point. n/t

[Brainfodder]

7. Impatient and/or selfish citizens have politely asked you hold their beers?

Give it time, this cluster has only just begun, to live, white trash and preachers!

They start out talking and learn to gun!

(Misheard lyrics?)

[struggle4progress]

8. Current data suggest that most people get mild cases but can still be infectious

If the disease spreads unchecked through the US population, even a death rate of 0.66% could produce two million deaths.

The US has about 2.4 hospital beds per 1000 of population and a population around 320 million -- or around 770 thousand beds

We don't have the hospital beds to treat everyone if the epidemic spreads too quickly

About 2.8 million Americans die annually: adding two million this year would be a 70% increase -- and that would be a whopping increase

And since we're not doing systematic testing, we don't have good estimates for the death rate

[former9thward]

21. There will not be "2 million deaths"

That was a wild figure and has been retracted. If we had systematic testing the death rate for all ages would be much lower.

[jimfields33]

9. Nobody was thinking 100,000 to 200,000 anyway

Even 20,000 is mind boggling to think about. I’d say 10K max. Way too many regardless.

[0rganism]

12. i'd bet we're gonna blow past 10k this week

there were what, ~1000 new deaths so far today? 20k is def going to happen sometime in the next 2 weeks. i don't think that's avoidable.

i do think we can come in below 100k if fanatical covidiots stop spreading the virus through carelessness and intentional negligence.

[uponit7771]

16. Shit, it's already at 1000 a day now !! ... we need testing

[0rganism]

24. well, 869 so far as of the latest i've seen (CNN)

the deaths reportedly doubled in 3 days. going with 2 doublings per week, over the next 2 weeks i'd expect to see ~80k (16*5k). if there's less, i'd chalk it up to mitigation through social distancing, thanks to swift independent action by several governors.

aggressive testing sure would have been real nice about a month ago and we're going to have to do it eventually just to survive.

[at140]

27. How will testing help reduce infections?

Only thing which will reduce infections is to follow guidelines available at coronavirus.gov

We can not be expected to copy the S. Korea model. That country is the size of Virginia and people listen to orders better.

[uponit7771]

34. Test / Isolate / Clean and we're back to near normal. That's what S Korea, German, Singapore etc...

... etc have done.

We're screwed because our government leader is 100% inept moron and for some reason doesn't want to test at par per capitat rates that the other countries who've successfully handled CV19 have.

We can not be expected to copy the S. Korea model

Or Germany, or Netherlands, Or Singapore Or Hong Kong?

Test, Isolate, Clean works ... PERIOD ... these countries have prove that it does and we'd better stop whistling past the "our leader is a moron" graveyard when it comes to why we're suffering so much.

That country is the size of Virginia and people listen to orders better.

We can at least test the sick, we're not doing that yet.

[at140]

35. No question we must test anyone with symptoms

But I think we are not broadcasting enough about how to PREVENT getting infected.
I already knew before going on a crowded cruise ship in last week of February, how to prevent getting infected. There was a lot of workers on the ship from SE Asia, so chance of asymptomatic infected workers was considerable. I am octogenarian so there was not much room for carelessness. All I did was never touch my face until I got back to the cabin and washed hands with soap. That was it, never wore a mask on the ship, enjoyed attending every stage show and never missed dinner in dining room. When I got back to Florida on last day of February, I have been to grocery stores many times, hospital for treatment for my wife, my bank, and post office. DO not even have a mask, so never wear it. I carry a small spray with hand sanitizer to clean grocery cart handles first thing. I never touch my face until I get home and put away groceries and wash hands with soap. Why I am doing this? Because I know viruses growing up in virus infested India. The skin on our palms and fingers is too tough for the virus to penetrate. But if you touch your eyes, nose or mouth with contaminated hand, the virus has easy entry into the body. Just last week I saw a doctor on TV who is treating covid-19 patients everyday, saying exactly the same thing. He said so long as you avoid touching your face with unwashed hands, there is very little chance of getting infected with covid-19. The doc confirmed what I have known for 60+ years.

But does the task force team on TV everyday emphasize this? Nope. I have never heard Trump talk about it.
Testing is fine, but prevention is 10 times better.

[uponit7771]

36. "But I think we are not broadcasting enough about how to PREVENT getting infected." I'm sure

... Cuomo was doing everything he could to not get infected and was infected anyway.

CDC and WHO are claiming between 25 and 50% of people who are tested don't have any symptoms

We should do what countries who've handled this virus with some level of success have done like Germany and Greenland and sample test randomly etc etc

Pence said there would be 5 million test distributed by March 16th and he hasn't answered straight to were those test are to this date

[at140]

38. Prevention prevents all medical expenses to cure infection

and tests are not 100% accurate, and expensive. China has a 40% false positive rate.
Again, I have nothing against testing, I just don't understand the lack EMPHASIS on prevention.
If a 80 year old like me can carry on with life without getting infected, anyone can.
I guess growing up in virus infested India raised by a mother who had common sense by the ton, I have some advantages. My prevention techniques are ridiculously cheap. And yes, gov Cuomo does talk about not touching face.

[Blue_true]

25. I agree that we will pass 10,000.

I believe that 80,000-120,000 dead in the USA are more plausible numbers.

[nilram]

14. We've had 4.7K already. Italy has 13K, with a smaller population.

10K will be just the start.

[ProfessorGAC]

18. Trends Point To A Higher Number

It's highly unlikely it will stop at 20k. Absent some treatment breakthrough in short order.

[sarisataka]

19. Nobody??

I have been seeing posts for weeks, and even today, predicting millions dead

[NickB79]

20. Spain just passed 9,000 dead

The US will be hitting 100,000 easily. We've still got 12+ months of this, until they figure out a vaccine. We'll likely lose 50,000 in the next 50 days as more cities get hit like New York. Then as we peak and pass down the curve, it will turn into a steady trickle thru the summer as the oldest and sickest continue to get infected and die.

Winter could easily bring a resurgence like we see with the flu.

[at140]

28. covid-19 is not all that difficult to avoid getting infected with

Prevention is 100 times better than testing which only confirms if you are infected. It does not cure it.
Why not prevent it in the first place? I was on a crowded cruise ship in last week of February,
followed precautionary steps and came back home healthy.

[Pisces]

37. Go away troll

[LisaL]

30. Hello?

We already have over 5,000 dead. No way 10,000 dead is anywhere near the max number. They way this is going, we are going to start seeing at least several thousands dead per day.

[Initech]

31. And that's still incomprehensible.

Nobody should have had to die from this. If we had a competent president, they would not have fired the pandemic response team and we could have been waiting for this thing when it showed up on our shores. Instead we have the most incompetent jackass whoever dared to call himself a leader at the helm and he royally fucked up. He golfed, MAGA rallied, laughed and called this thing a hoax. And had his favorite TV show back up and double down on his claims. All the deaths that are happening now are on him. And the forthcoming economic crash that's going to happen is also on him. He cannot justify or spin this in any way.

[Polybius]

41. "Nobody" is a stretch

Every major country has some deaths, even the ones with fantastic leaders like Canada.

[ibegurpard]

23. Let us hope so

[Pillow talk]

26. we shouldn't be assuming the best instead of the worst.

[Roland99]

32. What concerns me is the 5 out 13 cases resulting in death...

https://coronavirus.1point3acres.com/en

https://ncov2019.live/

Am I reading that incorrectly? Perhaps recovery cases aren’t being logged properly?

20% worldwide
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

CLOSED CASES
241,193
Cases which had an outcome:
193,999 (80%)
Recovered / Discharged

47,194 (20%)
Deaths

[Ferrets are Cool]

33. Well great...I guess we can all just relax now

[EllieBC]

39. We will never ever know.

Because testing is garbage everywhere except SK and Germany.

Here in BC, Canada, good luck getting a test unless you are hospitalized or a health care worker or someone rich and powerful.

[JCMach1]

40. Laughably off... If I had time, I would pick apart

Their methodology... They screwed the pooch somewhere

[Raine]

42. Hopefully true nt