Somber milestone - it looks like we'll have a million confirmed cases worldwide on 4/2.

[Ms. Toad]

We're at 936,237 now, 63,763 away from 1,000,000. On 4/1 there were nearly 77,000 new cases worldwide - it is highly unlikely there will be fewer than that on 4/2.

We had half a million on March 26, one week ago. If it keeps going at this rate there will be 2 million a week from now, and 4 miillion around the date the US cases are supposed to peak in 2 weeks.

[PoindexterOglethorpe]

1. Given a world population of 7.8 billion

what percentage of the population is that?

[lapfog_1]

2. I'll flip that around

at the current rate of infections, how long until we hit, say, 2 billion infections?

Assuming the CFR is only 2%... how many people are going to die from this first wave?

Answers: 33 days at the current rate of doubling every 3 days.

2 months if it doubles every 5 days.

btw... we won't hit that 2 billion number at this predicted rate... but not because of social distancing... but because the opportunity to spread will reduce as we hit significant population of infected people, conversely, like italy, we could see CFR of 10% or more if we let this rate of infection continue at doubling every 5 days for even another week because we will quickly run out of hospitals to put people in and life saving ventilators to breath for people overwhelmed by the virus.

Everyone talks about the .1 percent CFR for the flu and 1 to 2 percent CFR for Covid-19 as if that was the important point. Nope... the important point is that 15% to 20% of Covid-19 infections require hospitalization!

To finish the pop quiz...

2% fatality rate means... 40 Million deaths.

see, isn't math fun!!!

and, yes, today's number of 1,000,000 confirmed infections is only .014 percent of the world's population.

[beachbumbob]

3. most likely 10x that number as so few been tested, probably even more

[Moostache]

4. I am more concerned with this milestone event:

More than 1,000 AMERICANS died on 01-April-2020...and THAT number has been steadily rising every day for weeks...more than 1,000 families joined the list of those already impacted by this forever in ways I hope to never know (but fear I will soon be intimately aware of)...

May the 1,000+ from yesterday and the surely 1,000+ MORE today find peace and comfort amongst the madness that is life on Earth in 2020...God help us all.