The grim death-toll projections the White House offered Monday have already been revised upward

[Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin]

It was an unusual moment of frankness from the White House on Monday when the coronavirus task force offered new estimates of the toll the virus might exact on the American public. By holding firm on social distancing efforts, we were told, we might limit the number of deaths from the virus to somewhere between 100,000 and 240,000 over the course of the pandemic. It’s a grim tally, but better than the millions that might die should the country not follow the offered recommendations.

The peak of the outbreak would come in the middle of April, task force member Deborah Birx explained. She showed a graph using modeling from the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME). The projected peak would come on April 15, with 2,214 deaths on that day.



Late Wednesday night, the IHME released revised estimates, based on new data. During the first wave of the epidemic, its model projects, the death toll will be 93,765 — an increase of 14 percent from its model the previous day. That’s just the first wave, looking at the number of deaths through July. In the fall and winter, the virus is expected to reemerge and pose a significant threat once again.

That shift is a function in part of things looking more bleak over the short term. The new model suggests that the number of deaths each day is now most likely to peak on April 16, a day later than suggested Monday, with 400 more deaths that day.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/the-grim-death-toll-projections-the-white-house-offered-monday-have-already-been-revised-upward/ar-BB124S56?li=BBnb7Kz

[unblock]

1. i think the model is a bit simplistic in that it effectively assumes we're one giant population

the reality is that we're multiple populations as the virus has hit certain areas hard already and it's only just getting started in other areas.

so i think the peak will be more stretched out and choppy as the currently hard hit areas start going down the other side while the currently largely spared areas continue to ramp up cases.

hopefully i'm wrong and once we start the decline it just continues to decline, but i can see the "peak" stretching out a week or two, which would add quite a lot to the death toll as well as the economic and social impact.

[Chainfire]

2. I believe that higher totals are probably

I have been to several small cities near me in the past few weeks, including the Florida State Capital, and with few exceptions, people are going about their business as if everything is normal. They think because they haven't been slammed yet, that they are somehow immune and that this is someone else's problem. If I am reading my area correctly, and if it is not unique, this virus is going to continue to accelerate.

I walked into a busy grocery store yesterday, wearing a mask, and I was a celebrity. Looks of disgust, confusion and pity were prevalent. One guy cracked a snarky joke with me. Everything is normal is a perfect storm brewing.

When it hits close to home, they are all going to be crying, "Why didn't someone tell me."