Experts and Trump's advisers doubt White House's 240,000 coronavirus deaths estimate

[RandySF]

Leading disease forecasters, whose research the White House used to conclude 100,000 to 240,000 people will die nationwide from the coronavirus, were mystified when they saw the administration’s projection this week.

The experts said they don’t challenge the numbers’ validity but said they don’t know how the White House arrived at them.

White House officials have refused to explain how they generated the figure — a death toll bigger than the United States suffered in the Vietnam War or the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks. They have not provided the underlying data so others can assess its reliability or provided long-term strategies to lower that death count.

Some of President Trump’s top advisers have expressed doubts about the estimate, according to three White House officials who spoke on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak publicly. There have been fierce debates inside the White House about its accuracy.





https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/04/02/experts-trumps-advisers-doubt-white-houses-240000-coronavirus-deaths-estimate/

[kimbutgar]

1. So if the numbers come in lower he can say his quick response slowed the CV

And he’ll use it as a campaign ad.

[Pisces]

2. Exactly!

[Wellstone ruled]

3. A lower number will be fodder for

the Orange Anus Campaign. See see,I lowered that death toll and you need to vote for me cause Joe Biden did nothing to help me.

[uponit7771]

4. K&R, CV19 has higher R0 than swine flue and swine flue infected 50 million Americans. The pain hasnt

... started yet

[mitch96]

5. It's the old time doctor ploy..

The patient is very sick and I don't think he will make it.. but I'll try..
So if the patient dies it's "I told you so" and if he lives he is a great doctor...
A win/win either way...
High death count? and it happens? "I told you so" If the death count is less he's a great administrator of the worse pandemic in the US history.. And if it comes out good you know he is gonna take personal credit for it..
m

[Ilsa]

6. We are looking at what, a minimum of 15,000 dead just this month?

And that is before the peak. Other states like Texas may not peak until June. I wonder if 100,000 is too low. I cannot imagine 240,000.

[Indykatie]

7. Many Deaths Will Go Uncounted - You Have to Have Confirmed Diagnosis Via Testing to Get Counted

[stillcool]

8. that's quite a swing..

hedging his bets?

[mobeau69]

9. Fauci was standing right there when dense said 100-240k.

Then he came to the mic and said yes, that was possible. He should've said that it was "possible" but not likely or not based on solid numbers. He more or less went along with what dense said. Now I'm really confused. Disappointed in Fauci if dense quoted what are just very high-end guesstimates without getting a warning from him. Dense is a dirty sob.

[Azathoth]

10. Assume 3% mortality rate. Then 200,000 dead if 6.5 million infected

6.5 million is less than 2% of the population.

The White House figures don't sound completely unrealistic TBH.

[central scrutinizer]

11. Oh hell, just go all in now

And say that 330 million could die. Anything less can be claimed as the result of his tremendous, perfect, bestest ever response.

[Blue_true]

12. Trump is a long time con artist.

What is being done is what a con artist does. If a result is expected to be bad, be sure to over estimate it. If a result will be good, be sure to underestimate it. Regardless of the outcome, the con artist expects to come out looking good.