So just a few weeks ago many news sources were predicting as much as 70% of US Population

[Quixote1818]

could become infected with millions dead, but now we are only hearing the 100,000 to 250,000 dead numbers that came from Fauci a few days ago. After this first wave subsides, if only a few million people get infected then we still have well over 300 million people who can get this. Without the social distancing won't it just go right back up? Did he suggest a transition to a blitz of testing come summer to keep tabs on who is getting it? I still don't think they are leveling with the American people as to how far we are from being out of the woods. Am I missing something? Can someone help me understand the strategies better?


Business Insider headline from mid March:

Multiple experts say up to 70% of Americans could be infected with the coronavirus and 1 million could die if no treatment is found — so people over 60 should 'stay home unless it's critical'

https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-150-million-americans-may-get-infected-2020-3

[captain queeg]

1. Really, who knows at this point.

We aren’t doing enough testing to really get a handle on it. The US does have great health care if you have insurance. If hospitals aren’t overwhelmed we’ll probably have a lesser death rate than most countries so that’s why flattening the curve is so important. I wouldn’t dismiss the 70% of people getting it and a million dying; it’s possible but I don’t think very likely. I’m over 60 so I’m expecting to be locked down for months.

[marble falls]

3. Exactly. Because the was no plan or supplie to handles this thing, we are "looking through ...

a glass darkly".

Then again maybe the glass is clear and its a black hole on the other side.

We'll find out where we're going when we get off Mr Orange Toad's Wild Ride and there we are.

[unblock]

2. Yeah. If "only" 250 million out of 350 million get it, and "only" a 1% death rate,

That's still 2.5 million.

With luck, we push the time people get infected until after effective treatment arrives and we keep hospitals within capacity, lowering the death rate.

[Skittles]

4. it will come back until there is a vaccine

which will take some time

[roamer65]

5. It took 3 years for the 1918-1920 flu pandemic to "burn out".

Jan 1918 - Dec 1920.

[BigmanPigman]

6. I just looked at a post-it on my desk

from March 23 and it says "2 million Americans will die from this". I write stuff on post-its as soon as I hear something. I know I heard it on MSNBC or CNN since those are the only news stations I listen to. I just googled that number and it seems this was a projection if the virus goes UNCHECKED in the US and was written mid-March. Since that time there have been lockdowns, mandates to wear masks, social distancing guidelines, etc. Therefore the 2 million has already been lowered.

The scientists believe that the warm Summer weather will ease up on the number becoming infected, giving scientists and doctors time to develop vaccines, do research, test more people, etc. It will give us a little time before the next wave comes. We likely will have to shut down and stay inside as the waves continue until a vaccine is found. The Summer kills viruses since the days are longer and more people are outside where the natural UV sun rays kills virus germs (I just learned this fact this week).

Get used to new info coming and changes being made as discoveries are constantly occurring.

https://theintercept.com/2020/03/17/coronavirus-air-pollution/
2.2 MILLION PEOPLE IN THE U.S. COULD DIE IF CORONAVIRUS GOES UNCHECKED

[Elwood P Dowd]

7. I was also told by someone that UV from the sun kills COVID-19, but then later

a doctor told me that wasn't true.

[BigmanPigman]

8. No one is sure at this point

so I leave my used mask and gloves in the direct sunlight to super-kill whatever is on them. I figure that between the plain old, regular air killing the germs through time (2-3 weeks seems to be a high estimate but a pretty safe one) and the UV rays my reused/recycled masks and gloves should last a long time. I only use them rarely (I am self quarantining and go out once a week at the most) and wash my hands before and after putting them on and taking them off.

I am a realist and want to be prepared for "waves" of the flu over the next 12 months.